Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 09/12/2024 21:00

Ashmore latest :

.."Argentina: The central bank cut policy rates by 300bps to 32%. The decision goes AGAINST the IMF recommendation to bring interest rates to positive level in real terms. CPI inflation dropped to 2.8% mom in November, an annualised rate of c. 39%. President Javier Milei approval rating rose to 47% in November,* from 43% in October driven by declining inflation and rising real wages.."

* Starmer, eat your heart out. Better still, take note.

Also : Highest November vehicle sales in 6 years...

Still moving in the right direction, AFAICS.

GLA

[ih_663475] 06/12/2024 16:41

Grateful if whoever is downticking what is mostly factual information without providing a reason either have the cojones to share said reason (so we can have an adult exchange of views) or - failing that - to at least identify themselves so that I can filter as a waste of space.

TIA

[djderry] 06/12/2024 16:11

If confirmed this is extremely positive.

[ih_663475] 06/12/2024 15:09

Ref yesterday's Mr Marroc post, this just in from Seb

.."🛑Second media outlet/research firm that confirms ongoing negotiations between Argentina and GDP Warrants judgment creditors.
First was Argentina’s TN, now Octus (formerly Reorg).
Everything points to the execution of the EUR 313 million guarantee and the subsequent payment of some EUR 1.3 billion.
I haven’t been able to verify it in spite of my numerous calls to the government...

ATB

[ih_663475] 05/12/2024 19:45

Ashmore 2025 Emerging Market outlook.

Argentina :

Argentina: Policymakers have made extraordinary progress in 2024, with a fiscal adjustment and de-regulation efforts that have surpassed expectations.

President Javier Milei’s ‘economic shock therapy’ and crawling peg FX system gradually brought sky-high inflation under control in 2024, even though managed prices surged as subsidies were dashed.

Consumer confidence and economic activity are picking up again. With a significant share of the austerity-driven pain now in the rear-view mirror, most analysts are forecasting a rebound in export investment and economic growth of around 4% in 2025.

The next big step will be the gradual removal of capital controls in 2025, without restoking inflation and sparking big outflows.

If Economy Minister Luis Caputo and his team can pull this off, it would be a major milestone and mark a new paradigm for Argentina as an investment destination.

Argentina will also go to legislative elections in October 2025, which will be a crucial opportunity for Milei’s party to increase its paltry presence in Congress."

Quite encouraging!
GLA

[djderry] 05/12/2024 14:53

Most interesting,thanks extrader.

[ih_663475] 04/12/2024 16:48

Pragmatic Milei...

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentina-seeks-its-first-wheat-shipments-to-china-in-decades.phtml

Sporadic rains over the last few months fell just in time to keep plants in good condition, spurring improved yields, said Gabriel Abregos, an estimates analyst at the Bahia Blanca bourse. The US Department of Agriculture expects a national Argentine wheat crop of 17.5 million tons, up from 15.9 million last season.

China’s potential as a market for Argentine wheat may increase if Trump’s vow to slap tariffs on imports sparks a full-on trade war with retaliatory levies imposed by Beijing.

“Brazil took advantage of Trump’s first trade war, boosting its endeavour to be an agricultural force,” Idigoras said in an interview. “We need to know what a second trade war would look like — long, short, multi-destination, multi-product? — to see who could seize the opportunity this time around.”

It's an ill wind (or raincloud)...
GLA

[this tea tastes of chicken] 02/12/2024 19:27

I'm unsure of many things but very clear that Javier is not woke!

[tnt99] 28/11/2024 08:59

Starting to produce more oil from Argentina the country with huge reserves to be tapped let's hope MeliIs not so woke as our lot

[extrader] 25/11/2024 20:19

Ashmore's latest

Argentina
In an interview, Luis `Toto` Caputo revealed that Argentina is planning to remove capital controls in 2025. Argentina still has a backlog of imports and relatively small foreign exchange reserve basis.
To liberalise capital flows the country is negotiating a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which includes securing additional funds.
According to Caputo, the ongoing discussion centres around the quantity of money to be provided.
Despite persistent political drama, Argentina continues to make progress on fiscal consolidation and achieved a budget surplus in the first 10-months of the year. Notably, wages are now growing faster than inflation, as month-on-month inflation has declined to an annualized rate of 42%, a significant drop from its peak of approximately 280%.
This improvement not only boosts Javier Milei’s popularity but also signals a potential rightward shift in political sentiment across Latin America.


GLA

[extrader] 21/11/2024 14:20

Hi all,

A couple of articles on China's recent USD bond issue that could eventually come into play in Argentina :

hxxps://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1859446480198828360
Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important. I strongly suspect it's a message to the upcoming Trump administration. Let me explain what seems to" / X

and

hxxps://indi.ca/how-china-starts-printing-usd/

The BTL comments show some of the implications.

The potential end of USD hegemony...

GLA and ATB

[dekle] 21/11/2024 13:53

With Trump in goal oil would be a good investment

[chester9] 21/11/2024 12:59

You are well ahead on this well done share price moving.

[tnt99] 21/11/2024 11:08

Good news in the offing I think burford going into the oil business via YPF shares grant

[extrader] 18/11/2024 20:19

Per Ashmore research

.."Argentina

Fitch upgraded Argentina’s sovereign credit rating from CC to CCC and maintained it under positive watch.
This reflects growing confidence in the government’s ability to meet upcoming foreign-currency bond payments without needing restructuring or relief.
The recent tax amnesty programme brought over USD 20bn into the economy, boosting reserves by USD 3.6bn since July.
However, Argentina faces significant debt obligations in 2025, with USD 4.3bn due in January and July, alongside USD 2.3bn in foreign exchange (FX) bond payments by the central bank and USD 2.7bn by provincial governments.
While the authorities are exploring several external financing options, none has been finalised yet..."

And - in another shift for Argentina - he's pulled out of COP 29, Baku....

[extrader] 17/11/2024 17:25

Milei, the gift that keeps on giving...

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/mileis-meeting-with-xi-signals-hes-come-full-circle-on-china.phtml

GLA

[chester9] 16/11/2024 19:53

SebGo Loretta Judge Loretta Preska, still unconvinced by the submissions from the U.S. Department of Justice and the judgment creditors, has ordered the parties to provide additional information specifically related to a precedent-setting case (Peterson v. Bank Markazi, No. 15-690-CV) to determine whether to order the transfer of ownership of YPF shares.

[tnt99] 16/11/2024 08:53

So how much debt does burford or its subsidiary have?

[chester9] 15/11/2024 17:07

I like it they are having a bumper year, from presentations. I agree that it might indicate deployments are slowing, always prudent better to pay down debt in good years. Governments would do well to follow.

[extrader] 15/11/2024 15:03

In other news, YPF ADR that traded @ $10 a year ago and $ 24 last month is currently @ $ 32.
You can see why Argentina might be loth to see YPF brought into the settlement equation.
Makes the alter ego decision weightier, though

AFAICS
GLA

[dagoberia] 15/11/2024 14:26

May i ask, what typically would have pushed BUR to do this? Excess cash and so they reduce debt and coupon payments on existing debts? I guess they have to consider deployments too and balance that, but i guess that the recent good results allow them to do both

[chester9] 15/11/2024 13:18

$44m August 25 Bonds bought and will be cancelled. Leaving $135m Y25 bonds