Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 16/9/2024 15:04

That's another significant hire,Travis Lenkner was one of the three principals of Gerchen Keller Capital.

[three black crows] 15/9/2024 17:10

TNT99,When do you think the share price will reach £20.Q3 2025 perhaps ?

[tnt99] 15/9/2024 13:44

Still waiting for this to reach at least 20 quid after all the YPF court win is around 3 times the present market cap And at least the Argentina economy is now growing!!

[djderry] 11/9/2024 18:16

A slew of appointments announced that were made recently as Burford celebrates its 15th anniversary.Of note is the Special Counsel,advising on the enforcement of judgements in New York,with particular focus on the YPF matter.

[kaos3] 10/9/2024 14:46

reading what is going on i got a feeling the ypf case will not be sold on. it will be dealt with in house which will probably result in better total return

[planit2] 10/9/2024 14:42

I think everyone should appreciate the value of time with regards to Milei.

When you inherit an extremely bad financial situation with negative cash flow and the therapy is painful; the order in which you try to unravel the mess and improve the fortunes of your country (or whatever) is vital to your chances of success.

In this case he decided the problems at home needed addressing immediately and have had his full attention, leaving YPF (and all sovereign debt issues) on the back burner as his best option. For one thing if the country is on a better financial footing, they will be in a much better position to negotiate further investment.

He could have tried to argue his country was broke to negotiate the biggest debt writeoff but I think he would rather fix everything and pay the debts as he said.

[somerset lad] 10/9/2024 07:57

I've never been very keen on the turnover motion because if BUR wins and ARG refuses to turn over the shares how can the US courts sensibly respond to the breach of the court order? And if BUR wins and (hypothetically) ARG turns over the shares, what move will ARG then make -- I'd imagine revoking licences, taxing profits at 99% or similar leaving BUR with nothing worth having or capable of sale. So the turnover motion has always seemed to me to be about hassling ARG into coming to the table.

The DOJ's decision to consider whether to intervene presumably reflects ARG lobbying which, in turn, must reflect an ARG belief that they are otherwise (at least quite) likely to lose the turnover application. As a Judge I'd be a bit frustrated at the state coming in so late in the process, only indicating that it was considering intervening (rather than applying to actually intervene), and requesting 2 months to come to a conclusion. In her shoes I'd nevertheless accede to the request (don't want the Courts and State in major tension), but would press on with the alter ego applications (where there's no problem with international comity - if the aircraft or the bank account is in the US, the Court can order its seizure). From BUR's perspective, keeping the turnover motion in suspense is no bad thing (given that its purpose, in my view, is simply to hassle ARG, rather than to take delivery of the shares).

In terms of getting ARG to the table, we await the ruling from the Court of Appeals. Whilst ARG has presumably been advised that the prospects of success are very low (evidenced by Milei's statements earlier in his Presidency), the opposition seem unwilling to acquiesce in a settlement whilst there remains a prospect of overturning the main judgment.

[kaos3] 10/9/2024 07:55

maddox ... i witnessed steering of private companies to their harm by the government for the state interests many times. thinking otherwise is lack of on hand experience/knowledge.

it is just not said and written.

when i was naive i expected compensations in kind. no. if protesting one gets punished for real.

and i am not talking about us... but am expecting similar

size needed to get in touch with reality

[kuk1doh] 10/9/2024 07:48

Helpful. Thanks

[maddox] 10/9/2024 07:37

I think that this DOJ intervention is being overinterpreted. The US has laws protecting other nations sovereign assets (embassy buildings etc) from legal seizure. Burford contends that Argentina's YPF shares are a commercial asset not sovereign and thus up for grabs. The DOJ probably wants to ensure that a ruling by Judge Preska doesn't pierce the sovereign protection afforded to foreign governments. This would clearly be highly detrimental to US interests.

The DOJ doesn't act as an arm of the Dept of State pursuing foreign policy objectives.

'The mission of the Department of Justice is to uphold the rule of law, to keep our country safe, and to protect civil rights.'

[kuk1doh] 09/9/2024 20:21

So, by Nov 6 the US government may file a statement of interest in the case. I wonder what the interest will be? Feels like a big move so must have been confident the turnover motion would be granted and that must be problematic.

One comment in response to Sebs post suggested it’s not in the interest of the US for its courts to be seizing foreign government assets… and for the precedent to be created. I guess it would be poor diplomacy, reduce US influence if attractiveness of US as a place to do business is diminished. Yet the DOJ will not and will not want to be seen to interfere with the courts/justice. Probably want this to go away and not have the statement of interest in the public domain.

Interesting.

[kaos3] 09/9/2024 16:32

as i was saying all the time

...U.S. is likely to recommend ....

it is political in the end

i just hope we will be treated well and not sacrificed to any degree. it happens often unfortunately

[pck76] 09/9/2024 15:54

The US stepping in to "suggest using a mediator" would be a good step forward, as I suspect they would only do that after informal confirmation from Argentina they are willing to settle.

[djderry] 09/9/2024 14:00

Extrader,most interesting, thank you.

[extrader] 09/9/2024 13:38

Seb's assessment :

.."My view on this matter: The U.S. is likely to recommend that Judge Preska refrain from ordering the transfer of YPF shares to the judgment beneficiaries, taking into account the relationship between two allied nations. However, I also believe that the U.S. fully understands that a friendly sovereign nation (Argentina) violated local capital market laws.

For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if they also suggest that Judge Loretta Preska appoint a Special Master (mediator) to help both parties resolve the dispute..."

Seb talking his (negotiation, carajo!) book...

;->

GLA

[extrader] 09/9/2024 13:26

Or is played...


Preceded by

The US Government asks Judge Loretta Preska NOT to publish her decision on the delivery of YPF shares to the beneficiaries of the ruling. The US Department of Justice asks that an opinion be submitted by November 6, the day after the presidential elections.

And followed by lots of BTL comments and Trump emojis...

FWLIW

GLA

[extrader] 09/9/2024 13:19

Just in 10 mins ago


Sebastian Maril
@SebastianMaril

🔴The US Department of Justice writes to inform the Court that the United States of America’s potential participation in the Turnover Motion related to the YPF Expropriation Case. The United States expects that it will be in a position to inform the Court of its potential participation in this matter, and to file its Statement of Interest should it be authorized to do so, no later than November 6, 2024, the day after the US elections.

Preska plays a blinder...

GLA

[375uv] 07/9/2024 11:41

Let me put it this way...if Mr. Soler (a fanatic admirer of Cristina Fernandez Kirchner and Axel Kicillof) is right, then the Alter Ego discovery, ordered by Judge Preska months ago, falls apart. Burford cannot use only two low level public officials to prove the Alter Ego status of four Argy companies, including YPF. Preska only allowed Argentina to provide further info on the four most important officials named by Burford. Seb is right, Lady Preska ordered the discovery on these individuals, but allowed Argentina to present further evidence to convince the judge to reverse her order. It won't fly.

[scubadiverr] 05/9/2024 07:36

SP behaves strangely off the bat. Best to look at the spread to see likely true price rather than the actual displayed price. No idea why it does it

[hohum1] 05/9/2024 07:27

Any newsflow to justify today’s 5% jump?

[extrader] 04/9/2024 15:27

Seb again pleads with Milei...

If there is a government capable of setting an example by respecting the Rule of Law, it is this one. However, it continues to defend the mistakes made by previous governments.

Today, Argentina asked that the case for the expropriation of Aerolíneas Argentinas be closed and that nothing be paid, despite receiving numerous rulings against it from the ICSID and the US courts.

The same thing happens with YPF and the PBI Coupons, among others.

I applaud many of the changes made by President Milei. But he should be better advised in the trials we have open abroad.

Kicking the ball is not a legal strategy, but an excuse for not having one.

GLA

[extrader] 03/9/2024 17:52

This is the sort of banana republic stuff Milei has to contend with...



..There are few places in all of Argentina as poor as La Rioja, a sleepy, desolate province carved out of the red-clay highlands that form the country’s northwestern border with Chile.

And it is here, in La Rioja, that the financial toll of President Javier Milei’s shock economic therapy — a high-stakes bid to tame chronic inflation — can best be observed. When Milei slashed the monthly cash transfers from the federal government to the provinces, La Rioja went broke. In February, it fell into default. And soon the local economy had sunk into a deep recession...

La Rioja is the province that defaulted on a bond issued to finance a solar farm, sold the solar farm to a third party and used the proceeds elsewhere....

GLA

[extrader] 03/9/2024 17:02

Seb's latest

On Friday, all parties will present their final arguments in the YPF Expropriation Case appeal. A few days later, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals will announce the date of the hearing where the three judges will face Argentina, YPF, and judgment creditors for the first (and likely last) time. I don’t expect a ruling until mid-2025.

Other fish to fry/lines of attack to pursue in the meantime...

GLA