Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[375uv] 13/8/2024 19:59

Something that Seb published 20 days ago and again today, Bloomberg picks it up and doesn't quote him.

hxxps://x.com/SebastianMaril/status/1823287695327604917

[chester9] 13/8/2024 16:57

Bloomberg with thanksBurford Capital suggested that remarks by an Argentine provincial governor support its push to collect a $16 billion US court award against an oil company it argues is an "alter ego" of President Javier Milei's government. Litigation funder Burford won the judgment against Argentina last year over the 2012 nationalization of oil company YPF SA. US District Judge Loretta Preska ruled that the action violated the rights of shareholders whose interests Burford acquired. Since then, however, Burford has struggled to collect the massive award. The firm is currently trying to convince Preska to let it explore going after assets of YPF itself on the grounds that the company is essentially identical to the government. To that end, Burford lawyer Randy Mastro on Monday invoked recent public comments by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof. Read More: Burford Seeks Argentina's YPF Stake to Pay $16 Billion Award "YPF's directors are officials of President Milei," Kicillof said at a July 31 news conference, adding that they made decisions dictated by Milei. Mastro said Kicillof's statements were consistent with Burford's position. Kicillof was criticizing YPF's decision to locate a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas plant project with Malaysia's Petronas in another province, suggesting it was a political decision. YPF, which is 51%-owned by the Argentine government, has denied the decision was political, saying that it hired international consultants to guide the choice. If Kicillof's comments prove pivotal in the case, it will hardly be the first time. The governor was deputy economy minister in 2012 and helped spearhead the YPF nationalization. At the time, he argued to congress that company by-laws requiring a nationalization to be accompanied by a tender offer to shareholders at a pre-determined price was a "bear trap," comments that were cited by Burford in its case. Burford is currently seeking further information on whether YPF is an alter ego of the Argentine government. The company argues that Preska already dismissed claims against it and says Burford is trying to relitigate the issue. The litigation funder bought the YPF shareholders' claims for $16.6 million in 2015, and its share of the judgment would be some $6.2 billion. If it can collect even part of that, Burford stands to make a massive return. But Argentina, which is also appealing the award, has a long history of stonewalling foreign judgment creditors. It fought a 15-year battle with Paul Singer's Elliott Management before reaching a $4.7 billion settlement over its 2001 sovereign debt default.

[chester9] 12/8/2024 16:45

From Seb YPF brief is inYPF presents a letter asking Judge Preska to dismiss the request of the beneficiaries of the judgement for the expropriation to declare the oil company the Alter Ego of the Argentine Republic.

[extrader] 10/8/2024 21:12

Kicillof's blunder (if it's recognised as such) was to complain that Milei's Govt had decided to award the new LNG plant to a province other than Buenos Aires (his own) and that YPF had meekly followed instructions , as ' the good civil servants that they are'.

BUR's argument before Preska is that a previous Govt (involving Kicillof) had behaved in exactly the same way when it carried out the lop-sided renationalisation/expropriation of YPF, and that YPF was effectively an agency or alter ego of the State....and that its assets were /are therefore 'fair game'.

It's discussed at length here (with Seb as star witness)
hxxps://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/Alerta-estiman-que-los-dichos-de-axel-kicillof-durante-su-rueda-de-prensa-podrian-perjudicar-al-juicio-de-ypf.phtml

Maril went on to say: "The embargo process includes trying to prove that YPF and the Argentine Republic are the same, that is, they act as the same, they influence each other". He went on to say that, "a judge has to decide that, and what Kicillof said about YPF executives being Javier Milei's public officials doesn't help much".

Argentina seeks to prove to the judge that Argentina and YPF are not the same thing

"This hurts Argentina because Kicillof is a person who is a primary source of information because of his history with YPF, and he is also revealing something that the Argentine Republic is trying to disassociate", said the interviewee, who then added: "Argentina is doing its best to show the judge, who is going to decide whether YPF and Argentina are the same, that YPF is a private company that acts with its own board of directors".

On the other hand, the lawyer pointed out: "If it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, the beneficiaries of the ruling can go against the company's assets to collect the sentence that we are not paying". At the same time, he remarked that, "today they cannot do so, but if it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, they can seize the oil company's assets and that is why Kicillof's statements are very important for the future of this case".

Finally, Maril said: "The evidence is conclusive of how YPF is used as a ministry of the National Government, when YPF sets prices, the one who really sets prices is the Ministry of Economy, YPF has always been used by the Casa Rosada as a kind of additional ministry".


Seb also covers Christina Kirchner's use of YPF jets for personal travel and the recent shipment of gold to - he specifies - the UK.

He clarifies further that BUR isn't interested in the YPF shares per se (which would be problematic) but in the pressure-point that they represent....to force Argentina, he believes, to the negotiating table.

HTH

[rider75] 10/8/2024 19:54

As far as I read in case of Venezuela and PDVSA /PDVH /CITGO much less was enough to the judge to come to the conclusiom of alter ego stuff.
Argentin decision makers might be quoted as they several times declared so accidentally. Etc.

[scubadiverr] 10/8/2024 19:08

The hunt for Argentinas alter egos in $16bn US court fight

[scubadiverr] 10/8/2024 19:07

To make it as easy as possible....

[bramcych] 10/8/2024 17:52

Interesting lengthy feature piece in the FT titled The Hunt for Argentinian's Alter Egos in $16bn US Court Fight. It is behind the PayWall, however try searching on Google News for this title and you may be able to access it.

[rider75] 10/8/2024 16:23

(River I meant could you help le woth ths name of some of them? I would read after them deeper. Thx, Br! )

[three black crows] 10/8/2024 14:56

No negotiation with Argentina until the appeal decision is confirmed by Judge Preska. That means, negotiations won't be until spring 2025 at the earliest. 1: months away until we see some big beef

[riverman77] 10/8/2024 13:47

Not waiting for any such events, but usually have at least a couple of takeover bids year in my portfolio, typically for 30% premium or so, and sure there'll be more to come.

[chester9] 10/8/2024 13:01

From Seb A Defining Moment For President Milei"Abiding by the rule of law is crucial to maintaining international credibility, fostering economic stability, and ensuring long-term prosperity for the nation".Milei is right.I agree it's a long journey but we are getting close to payout. How much will dictate the size of the spike. The payout will finally show the scale that Burford can deliver, win and recover the judgement, that will stabilise the share price much higher. Less than 12 months hopefully 2024.

[rider75] 10/8/2024 12:10

(River, could you name a few, where you are waiting for such events?)

[riverman77] 09/8/2024 21:50

While it's perfectly possible there could be a sudden spike from positive developments in YPF, the fact is this could happen to many of the shares I hold, eg through a takeover at a big premium or big contract win. Therefore I just don't think this is reason enough in itself to continue to hold. I've been out for a while and can't find enough in last results to tempt me back.

[kaos3] 09/8/2024 19:00

if every one is waiting just for a spike - we have a problem huston

simple day in day out business should be giving all the share price support deserved on lets say 2 years averaged eg 8 Qs post covid period - as a fair measure for the discussion - what is in for the shareholders for real /executed and delivered/. there is enough historical backlog to get the feeling of what is going on... as a business ability to deliver to the shareholders. business has a needed critical mass to see the real shine and stakeholders cash distribution model.

without even trying to go to this and that specific case and or timing guessing etc

[chester9] 09/8/2024 15:42

From Seb ?Known Calendar for the Next 3 Months for the Republic of Argentina in international courts:• Aug 12: 2019 GDP-Linked Warrants -> Aurelius files the first brief in the appeal of the ruling favorable to the Republic of Argentina.• Aug 13: YPF Case -> Argentina submits defenses against request to declare YPF and BCRA as Alter Egos.• Aug 13: YPF Case -> Banco Nación files a brief to avoid disclosing information about its Alter Ego status.• Aug 19: 2024 PBA Default Debt Case -> Initial conference with the judge.• Aug 23: YPF Case -> The oil and gas company presents a defense in the Court of Appeals to avoid being reinstated in the case.• Sep 5: 2021 PBA Default Debt Case -> Conference to finalize the agreement and pay the judgment.• Sep 6: YPF Case -> Final arguments from all parties in the appeal of the 2023 ruling.• Sep 17: 2023 GDP-Linked Warrants -> Aurelius files a brief in response to Argentina's request to dismiss the new lawsuit.

[chester9] 09/8/2024 13:19

I've been back and forwards through figures but in reality they are not that exciting..Portfolio continues to steadily grow at 6%..8Q argument used by Chris on commitments and deployments benefits by weak 3Q 22 for commitments. Deployments low in Q1, Q3, Q4 23 and Q1 24 bringing the average down so easier to beat..Realisations are lagging as expected so H2 should benefit.The forward PE for FY25, FY 26 is not that different from today's. .It's all about YPF cash hopefully getting a significant pot to drive the portfolio or ideally give us a big dividend. .I suspect as above many are waiting for the spike that will come with a positive conclusion.

[reddirish] 09/8/2024 09:45

Out of interest, I had set an DP of £9 to buy back; a equally challenging decision point in rebalancing strategies, made all the more difficult if something moves in line with the market during big shifts. (What to sell, if anything?) I don't rebalance 'automatically' (rebasing based on initial buy-in price, current share price and percentage of portfolio), but use the triggers to make a decision regarding what to do based on current information. It's more fun, but means I need to keep my portfolio relatively small and highly focused. Meanwhile, I too expect the possibility of an immediate and sharp uplift in BUR at any time.... and share the frustration of all the long term holders here on the sequential delays inherent in the US legal system!

[scubadiverr] 09/8/2024 09:17

A favourable decision later today from Preska would surely see this return in an instant to the post Muddy Waters highs. Maybe slightly wishful thinking but quite possible.

[dagoberia] 09/8/2024 09:12

I guess everyone has to contend with "the share price could fly at any time, due to sudden news on YPF or other cases".. so trimming is risky .. i wish i had too

[lazg] 09/8/2024 09:07

Your post did not strike me as boastful. I wish I had done the same as you (and bought back now). Oh well.

[tomtrudgian] 09/8/2024 08:26

Agreed reddirish. three black crows is less impressive than the large number of his posts.

[reddirish] 09/8/2024 07:27

Sorry if my post came across as boastful, it wasn't meant to. Trimming is part of my portfolio management, and Burford's earlier rise had triggered a decision point. In my post, I mentioned a couple of the points that I think will help move the share price closer to where I 'believe' (the word you use) the company is worth. If I didn't believe it was very likely to get there, I would not continue to hold, and would have have sold everything at that decision point rather than trimming. As an aside, your 'donkey' jibe was a bit unnecessary: this is normally quite a well mannered board, and it would be a shame to see it degrade like some of the others!

[three black crows] 08/8/2024 20:27

Well, here we go, someone who doesn't believe in Burford, likes to boast about the trimming. why don't you ride your donkey elsewhere.

[reddirish] 08/8/2024 18:48

I did trim back a bit (25% of holding at £12.50) and like you am looking at my decision: it has always been obvious that Argentina will continue to drag this on, and I could have trimmed more. However, what was not clear then - and what is increasingly clear and is now reflected in the sp- is that cash generation is a lot lower than expected, as are commitments. The continued spin regarding the meaningless total portfolio leaves a bit of a bad taste too. But still I hold for now because even with all that, I still think it is worth over £20 - but only when some reliable cash generation from Argentina begins to flow. How long might that be....? Too long a wait and we miss out on a lot of other great opportunities....