Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tradertrev] 04/1/2024 19:29

Personally I expect them to be mid- to late March. Last year's results were delayed as they had to change and get approved their FV accounting methodology.

[syoun2] 04/1/2024 18:26

Anyone have any thoughts on when full year results will be out? I guess 3 months from last would mean early Feb but I guess they could be anytime over next few months.

[kaos3] 04/1/2024 16:46

chart update
worked like a magic

a retest probably ongoing

[kaos3] 03/1/2024 05:52

Milei can make it if he acts fast. Always one step before the old forces. While they are preparing a response he makes 2 more deep moves.

And this is good for bur. As bur is on his pressing to do list. He is aware.

While congress is on the beach he can just do it. Many operational steps.

Old forces are simply not used to the speed and depth. And will just cope with dids and facts. Too many of them for their capacity. Too late.

[chester9] 02/1/2024 21:49

hTTps://x.com/tommybarbanba/status/1742291842094244140?s=46&t=vgRcMH1ViVAUBW46YvlN9wLink Sebeastioan Soler with thanksPlaintiffs in the YPF trial write to Judge Preska again to ask her to confirm that as of 10/1 they are authorized to try to seize assets from Argentina. But they grudgingly admit that, as my 12/22 thread explains, it will be very difficult for them to seize anything.

[chester9] 02/1/2024 21:42

IMF flying into Argentina on Thursday to get the debt package back on track. President Milei is operating at full speed. BRICS meetings also in place.He's not wasting time. He knows the delivered pain has to bear fruit early so the people understand and stay on the journey. Holder or not it's interesting. A politician doing what he says. Not sure it will end well for him but admiring his start from the safety of the UK.

[extrader] 02/1/2024 20:25

Meanwhile, what bits of Argentina's economy - preferably affecting the politicians more than others - could BUR start to move against as from the 10th?

A steel hand inside the velvet glove....

Perhaps feeding info gained from the likes of investigators Kroll re overseas assets to Milei, for him to use to 'encourage' co-operation?

It's a dirty business.

[lazg] 02/1/2024 19:03

Well a deal could see Argentina get a payment plan and a rebate, this would maybe convince the congress that they have done a good deal and Burford would get cash.

[375uv] 02/1/2024 18:36

Very quickly...Congress was called in for extraordinary sessions and out of the current Summer Recess. Milei has the presidential powers to order Congress out of vacation and he did. So, the DNU and the Omnibus Bill will be debated before March.

Second, I would never ever send Congress any bill aimed at paying "vulture funds" unless this bill has a detailed and negotiated resolution to the litigation that also includes helping Argentina. You want Congress to approve a negotiated agreement, then you will have to throw Congress a bone as well. And this takes time. Burford needs to be part of the solution, not the problem.

I have sustained multiple times that the most difficult part of any settlement agreement with Argentina, is getting congressional approval. Give Congress a deal they can't reject. Argentina is in desperate need of everything except good soccer, rugby, meat and wine. By helping Argentina, you'll be helping yourself.

Hope this helps.

[rbrown123] 02/1/2024 17:50

Hi all,

Context:
I understand that Milei/his spokesman has commented on (i) wanting to pay in some form/quantum (specifics undefined) to uphold rule of law, etc., etc. and (ii) the Axel Kicillof perpetual bond idea, etc.

And I understand that the extraordinary session mandated for Congress means Congress can only cover Milei's topics, e.g. DNU and Omnibus, until the Congress re-sits in normal session (March onwards).

Yet I understand Milei's DNU and Omnibus do not explicitly cover the Petersen/Eton Park payments.

And I understand that Milei would be highly imprudent not to first get Congressional support for any Petersen/Eton Park payment agreement, to protect him from future litigation (that he paid a "vulture fund" without Congressional approval).

Ergo, he almost certainly needs/will seek Congressional approval of any Petersen/Eton Park payment plan.

Yet that topic has not been tabled for Congress' extraordinary session.

Now, I do understand at a time of immense societal challenge it's not politically wise to table a "pay the vulture funds" bill. Yet it needs to be done, it seems.

So is this a case of "his talk is positive but no positive actions [congress bill]", i.e. a red flag for Burford shareholders? Or is it a case of he will table a bill to Congress in the coming weeks/months, perhaps once he gets this DNU and omnibus approved?

--

So, a few questions for you:
1. Is the above right?
2. Do you know if Milei is able to table more bills to the extraordinary congress, i.e. he can add one for approving a Petersen/Eton Park payment plan.
3. Is it fair to assume that if the DNU or Omnibus fail, then any Petersen/Eton Park payment plan is highly, highly improbable to be sent to Congress by Milei (he will have bigger, closer-to-home problems to deal with).
4. Any views on whether the IMF wants this Petersen/Eton Park claim sorted or not? I have heard contradictory things (on one hand, IMF likes the rule of law being upheld; on the other hand, the IMF strongly doesn't to support Argentina financially only to see it pay Burford and plaintiffs out of Argentina).


Thanks a lot

[lomax99] 01/1/2024 10:34

HNY all Burford holders, here's to a, hopefully, prosperous 2024 for BUR.

[extrader] 31/12/2023 12:41

hxxps://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentina-formally-announces-join-brics-alliance-mileis-latest-105994741

..."In a letter addressed to the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — all members of the alliance — Milei said the moment was not “opportune" for Argentina to join as a full member. The letter was dated a week ago, Dec. 22, but released by the Argentine government on Friday, the last working day of 2023....

However, in the letter addressed to his counterpart Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva in neighboring Brazil and the rest of the leaders of full BRICS members — Xi Jinping of China, Narenda Mondi of India, Vladimir Putin of Russia and Matamela Ramaphosa of South Africa — Milei proposed to “intensify bilateral ties” and increase “trade and investment flows.”

Milei also expressed his readiness to hold meetings with each of the five leaders...."

GLA

[djderry] 29/12/2023 00:25

Hi Bradvert and thank you for your post.I take your point,but that's not my reading of the court docket.It says,and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong ' upon satisfaction of both these conditions',ie,the pledging of assets and the seeking of an expedited hearing.My understanding is that unless the Republic adheres to both conditions,then it's open to Burford to pursue them.

[bradvert] 28/12/2023 22:49

Extrader, the expedited appeal was just a recommendation or 'a good idea' from Judge Preska, not a formal court order.Seb replied to a tweeted query from me about that on Dec 16th, saying that Argentina was yet to take it up.I imagine today's move does give extra time for any deal to begin to materialise. Burford may choose to hold back from action on Jan 10th, then again they might just place their tanks on the government's lawn (assuming the targets can't easily run away..) 

[tradertrev] 28/12/2023 22:19

Maybe an extra 30 days to work on a negotiated settlement?...

[extrader] 28/12/2023 22:16

Hi TBC,

I'm not clear from your exposition whether, under (2), Argentina is still bound by Preska's ruling to go for an expedited appeal, even if it starts later ?

It would seem that the grace period simply gives Argentina an extra 30 days to think about what they want to do going forward, whilst they still get a first taste - starting Jan 10th - of what pain, hassle and inconvenience BUR can inflict.

AIUI.

[375uv] 28/12/2023 21:31

Good stuff. Thanks TBC.

[three black crows] 28/12/2023 21:18

More updates just in from Seb Maril1. Today's Order does not modify the JAN 10 deadline to pledge assets. That's Judge Preska's court. 2. The Second Circuit's Order simply gives Argentina an extra 30 days to file its first brief in the appeal.

[three black crows] 28/12/2023 20:32

Just in from Seb Maril.........More can down the road, COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE SECOND CIRCUIT HAS GRANTED ARGENTINA'S REQUEST TO EXTEND THE DEADLINE TO FILE THE FIRST BRIEF IN THE YPF EXPROPRIATION CASE APPEAL. NEW DATE: FEB 22.24.

[reddirish] 28/12/2023 18:29

This is the case: a patent infringement. https://app.ediscoveryassistant.com/case_law/50924-gotv-streaming-llc-v-netflix-inc

[donald pond] 28/12/2023 12:14

hxxps://x.com/DonaldPond6/status/1740345035671949424?s=20
Could this be the Netflix litigation CB referred to?

[this tea tastes of chicken] 28/12/2023 12:06

And resistance at £20 because, albeit small volume, there were some transactions around that level in early '19.

I would personally prefer the business to continue to recycle the profits into the sector which they boss, the go to lit provider. This is what has got the company to where it is now ( a sector with notable casualties) and we should not forget that. Whilst I have an appreciation of efficient capital management, I am more interested in BUr gaining a monopolistic position - they can always argue the other pillars of the business to mitigate regulators in the same way that Google does this with search (95%). Bur will want to be ready for some big cases which will need some big deployment thus snuffing the competition out completely. It would at least put an end to raising debt through bonds at prohibitive rates ....as Big Tom has asserted.

[djderry] 28/12/2023 11:38

If a mechanism can be devised whereby Bur is guaranteed a 2/3/4 hundred million dollar yearly payment,it would,of course,be transformative.It's not beyond the ability of clever lawyers to layer a series of protections whereby,if in default,the original amount plus interest becomes payable.
Would it be transformative for the share price? Who knows.As has been posited here,it can be made to do so,ie with share buybacks or special dividends.
Please note,I am not calling for either.Remember,most on here are punters,happy to make 20/30/50 percent on a share.As you see today weak holders sell out.
Who can blame them? If you have never invested in a two/five or ten bagger,you don't realise it is possible.When the share price goes to £18.50,you'll have lots of selling ( many institutional investors got in at that price,there'll be lots of resistance at £20 as well,just because of the first digit changing!
Investors practise the art of inactivity.