Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 13/12/2023 10:47

How long will it take to reach 30 pounds? Might cash in at that price

[chester9] 13/12/2023 10:31

Stockopedia recently covered the properties of a 10 bagger reviewing historical data. They did not spend too much time trying to shoe horn Burford into the winning concepts but it was there all the same. The company has progressed massively and the underlying model is being tuned, still a long way from being £20 plus, but hopefully not a long time. Here's to repeating 10 bag.

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 09:46

Actually on the funds side Burford is interesting. I saw a presentation earlier this year from JMI and their biggest cause of underperformance against their UK mid cap benchmark was NOT holding Burford. At the end of the year when people are looking at the best performing UK stocks above say £1bn market cap Bur should be pretty high on the list.

[kaos3] 13/12/2023 09:41

exactly .... you are such a master of words. hat off

box chart



RSI has space to run
base is well formed

and Arg situation is going extremely well imho

plus we all need a good eoy valuation. specially funds

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 09:37

That would be good, then I see a big box from £10-12 that other than a spike has held for 8 months. If that breaks to the upside we will have a classic stage 2 stock again

[kaos3] 13/12/2023 09:26

chart
break out today probably

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 07:58

Similar positive write up on seeking alpha recently

[djderry] 12/12/2023 13:21

Really impressed with the Investor's Chronicle article.It's the first time in years I can remember an honest appraisal of the bull case without all the caveats,snide remarks,and fundamental misunderstandings of the risks involved.( There are risks but IC did not do their research diligently,in my opinion.They still have articles up about Burford's '$1 billion dollar claim against Argentina')
But that's the past.I welcome this new era of detente.

[extrader] 12/12/2023 10:43

And so it starts :

(1) New decree : No public sector employees allowed to WFH. Estimates that this will cut staff nos by 10%...

[Aside: I wonder what the UK comparable would be? ;-<]

(2) Imminent visit of US Treasury #2, Jay Shimbaugh.

hxxps://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/motosierra-manual-de-uso-nid12122023/

.."A very important [US] official is arriving on 17 and 18 December. Probably the most important official who can come to Argentina if you look at Milei's and the country's agenda of needs. His name is Jay Shambaugh. He is the second in the Treasury Secretariat, deouty to Janet Yellen. And his position is important because he is in charge of the Treasury's international relations. He is the one who links the Treasury of the United States, the Ministry of Finance of that country, with the rest of the countries in the world.

Moreover, he is the political representative of the US representative at the IMF, whose voice is louder than the rest of the Fund's members: Gita Gopinath, the person in charge of Argentina's programme. The person Nicolás Posse and Luis Caputo went to talk to in Washington before taking office...."

This is a very important visit because he is the Treasury official who had tacitly recommended that the Fund should break with Argentina because the country had not complied with its programme. The Fund should break with the Argentina of Fernández and Massa.
But in the new context, it is very difficult for him to come if it is not to provide, to some extent, a solution to a central problem, which is the fall in the country's international reserves....

A journey of 1000 miles...

ATB

[tradertrev] 12/12/2023 10:35

Well well well - the Chronic Investor is carrying an article "Shares I love: Burford Capital" !! Admittedly not written by a staffer, but still very out of line with the hitherto steadfastly negative editorial slant.

[kaos3] 11/12/2023 20:25

what about Milei energy sector privatization... is that not avoiding the debtor... in a way... specially if foreigners get involved... in the state it could be observed as a zero summ game

[extrader] 11/12/2023 20:25

Bulletin board chit-chat ...and implied by comments such as this .."It is likely that Burford will take a discount to collect their $6.2B YPF judgement.."

Or this
.."I would not be surprised if Burford start the process of seizing something in order to get them around the negotiating table.
Burford will have drawn up a list of what they can get their hands on quickly. Let’s face it, Burford have had many years to plan this. Execution is about to start..."

HTH
;->

[three black crows] 11/12/2023 19:40

EXTRADERWhere is the talk ?Who is talking ?

[extrader] 11/12/2023 18:49

There's a lot of talk about whether we're looking at an immediate settlement of the Preska award or some kind of staged settlement (=payout).

Never mind that this is all very much chicken-and-eggs-pre-hatching talk, how might it work ?

Here's a recent example from a different sector and in a country with different issues, but may serve as a useful illustration of the sort of 'compromise outcome' that we MIGHT see...

.."Nearly three years after defaulting on its debt, the Suriname government concluded its debt restructuring by issuing USD 660m in 10-year bonds, with a coupon of 7.95%. The nation also issued an oil-linked note of USD 315m notional – a type of value recovery instrument (VRI) heralded as a future path for commodity-producing nations struggling to pay off debt. The intention is VRI holders will receive 30% of every USD 100m in revenues received through the commercial development of a specific oil field until the bondholders are compensated for the 25% haircut in principal outstanding granted as part of the restructuring deal. ..."

So, something now...and something extra down the road, contingent on things working out......

Everyone's 'incentivised' to not rock the boat.

Sounds very libertarian to me!

Just IMO, NAI, DYOR, etc etc

[edmondj] 11/12/2023 07:04

Javier Milei warned "there is no money"

[extrader] 10/12/2023 11:26

Well, today's the day it all starts : Milei's investiture as President.

Hat tip to Jammy C for this clip by Patrick Boyle, which in places 'amused and educated' me.



Boyle's delivery may not be to your taste but certainly full of facts and ideas...and even some that may work!

Patrick Boyle is a Visiting Professor of Finance at Queen Mary University of London in the School of Economics and Finance. He has taught at Queen Mary University since 2009. Patrick teaches the Financial Derivatives and Portfolio Management Classes to Master’s in Finance Students.

Patrick Boyle is a Founding Partner at Palomar Capital Management, a quantitative Hedge Fund. Patrick began his finance career in 1997 and has worked with Victor Niederhoffer, a former partner of George Soros' and has been a Portfolio Manager at RBS, Millennium and Nomura

His Ground.News analysis prog - brief 1 minute ad at min 7:00 is an interesting idea, too.

He needs a proof-reader - confuses the late Queen with Margaret Thatcher ....and , more unhelpfully, near the end Milei with Macri on a couple of occasions ;-<<br />


His mention of some of the 22 special $ schemes - Malbec$ for wine exports, Qatar$ so people could go to the World Cup and Coldplay$ so fans could hear Coldplay in-country - show some of the craziness that Argentinians already have to put up with...

The 'currency board' halfway house proposal MIGHT - per Boyle - be a workable compromise to the stated policy position re the Central Bank : emasculation instead of demolition.....

AIUI

[extrader] 10/12/2023 11:20

BUR's AI (AIUI) wouldn't be trying to influence a case outcome, just work out - on a probabilistic level - its most likely outcome and then invest = back financially accordingly : in conventional investment terms (1) which shares to 'buy'; and (2) what is the optimal point to 'sell'.

AIUI

[rider75] 09/12/2023 08:30

What an awkward idea. Source of funding of a litigation does not have effect on or change the fact that justice could be made.

[extrader] 08/12/2023 18:04

Interesting, too, that BUR uses AI to work out what the optimal achievable settlement rate is likely to be, given that most cases end that way. Presumably takes account of industry, issue, judge, known precedents (if any) and whatever details can be gleaned notwithstanding typical NDA's etc.

Coming back to our Argentina 'sheep', Bogart emphasized at outset of interview the significance of Milei's acknowledgement that 'Argentina must pay'.

My take, anyway.
ATB

[kaos3] 08/12/2023 16:51

from DP hint

quote

....Overall, litigation funding has drawn the suspicion of everyone from the Chamber of Commerce to House Speaker Mike Johnson, but this is capitalism, pure and simple.....

makes it political. highly political....

and quote

....Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal to ban sovereign wealth funds and foreign governments from financing litigation, directly or indirectly, and his desire to require disclosure when litigation financiers such as yourself take foreign money. ....

[kaos3] 08/12/2023 16:39

edit ...

ps - this consolidation will be over one day.... strong base above 1000 .... and then boom... added

[donald pond] 08/12/2023 16:35

Suing NetflixPuck.news

[lomax99] 08/12/2023 16:22

It's now showing in my HL account, it was in my AJB account earlier today.