Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[houseofpain1] 15/12/2023 13:32

Good call I think riverman. Given how the shares appeared to be negatively correlated with bond yields as they were going through the roof in September and October, I'm surprised that the shares haven't moved back up as rates have plunged back down. Markets, eh!?

[dekle] 15/12/2023 13:13

Probably the strength of sterling against the dollar is responsible for the drop

[riverman77] 15/12/2023 12:25

This is about the only thing in my portfolio that not shot up over last couple of weeks - taken the opportunity to top up as must be due another leg up soon

[donald pond] 15/12/2023 08:38

Breakout didn't happen. I managed to shift my traders above £11 and back in at 10.75 for the next bump up.

[extrader] 14/12/2023 19:47

Hi gusrezo,

I believe that this is the same transaction discussed around 9th Nov by Somersetlad , post 25429, where he came to a similar conclusion!

No harm being reminded of the pipeline, though.

;->

[gusrezo] 14/12/2023 19:10

the hedge fund Greenhaven Road wrote in its 2023 Q3 letter that "after sifting through thousands of pages of court documents (via the public access resource PACER), Burford presentations, SEC filings, and news media accounts, there is reason to believe that Burford has line of sight to another multibillion-dollar award where collectability is far less of an issue than with YPF. "

the site in Practise has released an interview with several Burford investors (it's behind a paywall), I think the next extract that has been sent by email as an introduction to the interview is the thesis from Greenhaven related to Burfod/Sysco:

When we refer to Sysco, we've sent a presentation to a number of people detailing the cases.
Burford has about $260 million invested in these antitrust cases. What we covered was only $140 million of that, which is related to Sysco.
What we know is that Sysco has approximately $22 billion of purchases related to these cases over an eleven-year period. You can either build up what the damages should be from the bottom up, or you can estimate from the top down and say, okay, $22 billion of purchases. What assumption do you make about overcharges?
Based on reading the court cases, it could average anywhere from 10% to 25%, depending on which piece of evidence you consider. You could take the middle of that and say, okay, let's assume 15%. Antitrust cases are treble damages and it's joint and several liability.
Just the Sysco claims alone could be looking at 45% of $22 billion. You're looking at upwards of $6 billion or $7 billion of damages to Sysco, and then 30% of that was assigned away to customers.
Therefore, 70% would be attributable to Burford, about half.
You have to segregate what was on balance sheet versus managed funds. I'm not sure how much was carried, depending on which fund it was in, but you quickly get to a number where, in the worst-case scenario, they can settle tomorrow. -

[chester9] 14/12/2023 17:38

Do we think holders ran to their 250 stocks for a quick buck. On such a strong day Bur going backwards was disappointing. patience I know everything comes to he who waits etc

[lomax99] 14/12/2023 09:04

Since it's notional, they will then the blame for 'inflated' profits, and a growing disconnect with cash collection (unless that starts to accelerate).

[donald pond] 14/12/2023 08:51

The expectation of 3-6 interest rate cuts in the US next year will cause a huge write up in the value of the PF, reversing the markdown we suffered in q3. All notional of course.

[tnt99] 13/12/2023 19:25

Does that mean we get twice the pesos lol

[syoun2] 13/12/2023 15:38

Javier Milei has started with devaluing the Peso by 50%, the shock treatment has begun

[laughton] 13/12/2023 12:45

Good job the award wasn't in pesos

[scubadiverr] 13/12/2023 12:19

It's detailed in a youtube video on 10 baggers by Ed. Available to all.https://youtu.be/DLR15dWGhos?si=VS0RlS9b31qcgfWT

[bradvert] 13/12/2023 12:07

Chester  - On Stockopedia I would take the BUR stockpage with a pinch of salt currently.It hasn't been updated with the June or September results..I logged with support a couple of weeks ago, but still awaiting a fix.

[tradertrev] 13/12/2023 11:44

planit - on a Monday then...are you expecting some good weekend press at that time? :-)

[tnt99] 13/12/2023 10:47

How long will it take to reach 30 pounds? Might cash in at that price

[chester9] 13/12/2023 10:31

Stockopedia recently covered the properties of a 10 bagger reviewing historical data. They did not spend too much time trying to shoe horn Burford into the winning concepts but it was there all the same. The company has progressed massively and the underlying model is being tuned, still a long way from being £20 plus, but hopefully not a long time. Here's to repeating 10 bag.

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 09:46

Actually on the funds side Burford is interesting. I saw a presentation earlier this year from JMI and their biggest cause of underperformance against their UK mid cap benchmark was NOT holding Burford. At the end of the year when people are looking at the best performing UK stocks above say £1bn market cap Bur should be pretty high on the list.

[kaos3] 13/12/2023 09:41

exactly .... you are such a master of words. hat off

box chart



RSI has space to run
base is well formed

and Arg situation is going extremely well imho

plus we all need a good eoy valuation. specially funds

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 09:37

That would be good, then I see a big box from £10-12 that other than a spike has held for 8 months. If that breaks to the upside we will have a classic stage 2 stock again

[kaos3] 13/12/2023 09:26

chart
break out today probably

[donald pond] 13/12/2023 07:58

Similar positive write up on seeking alpha recently