British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 11/10/2020 11:53

Sold these, took a thumping loss and put the money into L&G and Microsoft, dont want this sort of stuff anymore, expecting that moron Boris to do a brexit deal as Biden will get in, UK’s last pro brexit ally In Trump will be gone and Biden pro Europe so the self harming idiots have woken up to the impoverishing and currency trashing mess they have caused, U.K. market should bounce, for a while, when announced, may provide a chance to exit U.K. investments permanently then and get into all US and developed Asia and growth stocks. Dividend income pointless if capital being destroyed, ftse 100 like U.K., best days long behind it.

[minerve 2] 07/10/2020 17:33

Philip Morris rallies after Citi tips earnings beat next week

[kiwi2007] 05/10/2020 02:33

Basically says - everyone loves ESG...no investors or fund loves tobacco (and perhaps never will).. they may possibly be taken private.

[porsche1945] 28/9/2020 13:18

Can’t see anything moving these out if this range, terminal. Imb may move becos of a takeover or merges with China tobaccos but this I just dont see moving.

[stepone68] 28/9/2020 12:15

I'm not sure diversification is the way to go. They are not an insurance company - why would they outperform in that market? Years ago they owned a paper mill in Aberdeen that I used to work at, but they sold that off in the early 90s. Think they are better sticking to their core business.

[andrewbaker] 28/9/2020 11:17

BATS is moving up again, and not before time. Remember, apart from the divi., the value is good, and even if burning tobacco ends in a number of years, there's plenty of time for them to develop other products, plus other avenues of business. Remember, they owned insurance businesses years ago - that Zurich bought - and are always on the lookout, or used to be, for non-nicotine revenue earners. A safe place for any longer term money, which will earn well whilst there.

[minerve 2] 24/9/2020 13:19

Thanks for the analyst update. :)

[minerve 2] 24/9/2020 13:18

muscle

Zoom actually make money? WOW!

[muscletrade] 24/9/2020 07:56

Alternatively you could invest in Zoom. If they did a buy back they could buy back their current value in 500 years.
It's a tough decision.

[minerve 2] 23/9/2020 12:43

"If they prioritised share buy backs, BAT and Imperial Brands could buy back their current market values in nine and seven years, respectively."


A bit slow these analysts, but I'm glad they got there in the end.

[muscletrade] 23/9/2020 06:56

RBC Capital Markets upgraded Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco on Tuesday, arguing that they should prioritise share buybacks.

The bank said it’s hard to see how the tobacco sector can extricate itself from investors’ ESG penalty box.

"If institutional investors won’t buy the shares, the companies should use their plentiful free cash flow to do so instead," it said. "If they prioritised share buy backs, BAT and Imperial Brands could buy back their current market values in nine and seven years, respectively. Consequently, we raise our ratings to ‘outperform217; from ‘sector perform’ for both companies."

RBC said that while it expects organic sales growth to moderate in 2020 for BAT, mainly due to the Covid lockdown in South Africa and for Imperial Brands due to a decline in next generation products sales, it does not anticipate anything to suggest a permanently lower level of ongoing sales growth.

"What is more, the traditional volume/value trade-off seems to be intact," it said.

RBC lifted its price target on Imperial brands to 1,900p from 1,800p and on BAT to 3,200p from 2,700p.

At 1120 BST, BAT shares were up 3% at 2,702.62p and Imperial Brands shares were 2.9% higher at 1,380p.

contador

[geckotheglorious] 22/9/2020 22:00

@AndrewBaker.

Ichimoku says "buy" as well...

[andrewbaker] 22/9/2020 13:36

Further to my 4th. August comment, BATS is once again showing up as a buy whilst the rest of the market doesn't know what it's doing. At a PE under 10, a dividend yield not that shy of 8%, no risk to sales, and ... what is bad (excluding ethical investors, for whom I have respect)? Far better than cash in the bank, and as long as you have enough to call on so no hasty sale of the shares will be required, a great home for medium to long term savings (and not all of it, of course!)

[muscletrade] 22/9/2020 08:31

RBC's analyst James Edwardes Jones upgrades his rating from Neutral to Buy. The target price is increased from GBX 2700 to GBX 3200.

[stepone68] 21/9/2020 09:34

Go for it.

[buywell3] 21/9/2020 08:46

Is today another buying opportunity does the team ( rampers) think ?

[stepone68] 16/9/2020 11:56

kibes, I first bought in 2003 for £6, and I've had more money back in dividends than I ever spent. My CAGR since 2003 is 18%. If they went bust tomorrow I would still have a CAGR of 14%. The figures would actually be better than that if I hadn't stupidly sold some at £17 because they had gone up so much!

LTBH strategy has been the correct one here.

[kibes] 16/9/2020 10:44

stepone - In 2017 BATS reached 5600p. If you have followed that philosophy since then, you will have lost around half your money. No reason to be egotistical! On the other hand, buying now at 2700p looks a good prospect and you will get double the number of shares compared to 2017.

[stepone68] 11/9/2020 09:46

I don't mean to be egotistical, but I do think that efforts to trade individual shares like this are doomed to failure and that buying and re-investing divis will product good returns.

[minerve 2] 10/9/2020 12:47

And Barclays turns positive on Swedish Match:

ZYN FY20 cans to 123mn and FY21 to 195mn: Despite capacity constraints in FY20, ZYN has grownUS volumes at ~6mn can/qtr. ZYN is currently distributed in 90K stores out of 150K+ stores. With capacity expansion to be completed in next two months, we think growth can step up with additional distribution. We are 4% & 8% ahead of FY20 & FY21 consensus EPS respectively, even after factoring in adverse FX moves and a California flavour ban.Over the next decade, ZYN US can compound EBIT at 25% per annum. We upgrade to OW and increase our price targetto SEK 800.

California flavour ban passed into law: On August 282020, California passed SB 793 into law, prohibiting flavoured tobacco products from January 1, 2021.California is 7% of US tobacco volume. We include 7% negative impact in ZYN’s 2021 volume forecast, but are still ahead of consensus. The picture at the federal level with H.R. 2339 is complicated. For a flavour ban bill to become law, we will need (a) a Democratic sweep, (b) change to the filibuster process in the Senate, and (c)tobacco to be a high priority for Democrats, which it currently isn’t, with COVID-19 response, healthcare, foreign policy,especially China,and federal tax rate etc. change much ahead, in our view.

Regulation is a risk and an opportunity for ZYN: There are three essential questions when assessing flavour bans: 1) Does it change the growth rate of consumer demand?This requires separating the impact on existing and new consumers considering flavours largely help recruit new users.A flavour ban reduces ZYN’s growth, but not necessarily its existing consumer base. 2) Does it alter the industry structure?A flavour ban would create a duopoly as only ZYN and on! have flavour-free products. 3) How are competing categories impacted?The e-cig PMTA deadline is 9 September. Open-tank e-cigs account for 5% of US nicotine volume, sold largely in flavours, and are seeing significant dislocation as manufacturers struggle to file PMTA. Modern oral is still only 1% of US nicotine volume. Any consumer switching from open-tank e-cigs to modern oral would create a major tailwind for ZYN.Key risks:(a) ZYN penetrates the early adopter demographic and then hits a brick wall, much like IQOS did in Japan in 2018.

Courtesy of FT Markets Now (Monday)

[stepone68] 10/9/2020 08:19

Both your decisions were poor. Simplest thing is to buy and collect the dividends. Never sell.

[geckotheglorious] 09/9/2020 21:38

Gary1966
Been meaning to buy - didn't. My decision seemingly as poor as yours!!!

:)

[gary1966] 09/9/2020 14:20

Took a chance and sold at just over £26.41 as the short term RSI looked elevated earlier. Not looking like a great decision presently but you pays your money etc. Just don't trust these markets presently.

GLA