British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[minerve 2] 10/9/2020 12:47

And Barclays turns positive on Swedish Match:

ZYN FY20 cans to 123mn and FY21 to 195mn: Despite capacity constraints in FY20, ZYN has grownUS volumes at ~6mn can/qtr. ZYN is currently distributed in 90K stores out of 150K+ stores. With capacity expansion to be completed in next two months, we think growth can step up with additional distribution. We are 4% & 8% ahead of FY20 & FY21 consensus EPS respectively, even after factoring in adverse FX moves and a California flavour ban.Over the next decade, ZYN US can compound EBIT at 25% per annum. We upgrade to OW and increase our price targetto SEK 800.

California flavour ban passed into law: On August 282020, California passed SB 793 into law, prohibiting flavoured tobacco products from January 1, 2021.California is 7% of US tobacco volume. We include 7% negative impact in ZYN’s 2021 volume forecast, but are still ahead of consensus. The picture at the federal level with H.R. 2339 is complicated. For a flavour ban bill to become law, we will need (a) a Democratic sweep, (b) change to the filibuster process in the Senate, and (c)tobacco to be a high priority for Democrats, which it currently isn’t, with COVID-19 response, healthcare, foreign policy,especially China,and federal tax rate etc. change much ahead, in our view.

Regulation is a risk and an opportunity for ZYN: There are three essential questions when assessing flavour bans: 1) Does it change the growth rate of consumer demand?This requires separating the impact on existing and new consumers considering flavours largely help recruit new users.A flavour ban reduces ZYN’s growth, but not necessarily its existing consumer base. 2) Does it alter the industry structure?A flavour ban would create a duopoly as only ZYN and on! have flavour-free products. 3) How are competing categories impacted?The e-cig PMTA deadline is 9 September. Open-tank e-cigs account for 5% of US nicotine volume, sold largely in flavours, and are seeing significant dislocation as manufacturers struggle to file PMTA. Modern oral is still only 1% of US nicotine volume. Any consumer switching from open-tank e-cigs to modern oral would create a major tailwind for ZYN.Key risks:(a) ZYN penetrates the early adopter demographic and then hits a brick wall, much like IQOS did in Japan in 2018.

Courtesy of FT Markets Now (Monday)

[stepone68] 10/9/2020 08:19

Both your decisions were poor. Simplest thing is to buy and collect the dividends. Never sell.

[geckotheglorious] 09/9/2020 21:38

Gary1966
Been meaning to buy - didn't. My decision seemingly as poor as yours!!!

:)

[gary1966] 09/9/2020 14:20

Took a chance and sold at just over £26.41 as the short term RSI looked elevated earlier. Not looking like a great decision presently but you pays your money etc. Just don't trust these markets presently.

GLA

[hernando2] 09/9/2020 08:29

The
tech sell off is underway..is rotation coming?

[stepone68] 07/9/2020 09:34

Yeah, good luck with that strategy. It'll work great until it doesn't and you lose a fortune.

[hernando2] 03/9/2020 08:27

At some point the big investors will rotate some profit from Tech to Dividend payers...

[stepone68] 03/9/2020 08:15

I still don't get it buywell. Smoking has been a known killer for decades. I don't see covid making a massive difference.

[philanderer] 03/9/2020 00:12

Morgan Stanley says British American Tobacco's ability to grow is underappreciated

[minerve 2] 02/9/2020 11:53

buywell3 28 Aug '20 - 20:33 - 3871 of 3871 (Filtered)

[buywell3] 28/8/2020 20:33

Ignorance is bliss for some it seems

Coronavirus: Vaping teens and young adults up to seven times more likely to contract COVID-19, study finds






Plus the young are now catching a different form of Covid-19 as it has mutated


This new disease MIS-C is in the USA and UK and EU now , plus



Study: Coronavirus cases in children rise sharply in the second half of July, with more than 97,000 infections


Also younger adults are catching new mutations --- SARS-CoV-2 is evolving so it can enter all human formats. It is not choosy

Children are also super spreaders of the virus





IMO anyone going V this chart is a plonker

In a Covid-19 world for years to come IMO

Smoking and Vaping are to be considered in a bad light

Debt is a massive issue ignore it IMO at your peril

dyor

[kiwi2007] 20/8/2020 11:28

Interesting five year chart. Fairly classic head and shoulders followed by a triple bottom.

Always thought of buywell as the voice of some dodgy traders. Often yells sell, sell, sell louder and louder whilst they're shorting stock - helps them get the last few pennies out of those that listen to him.

He'll be buying soon. Mark my words.

[stepone68] 20/8/2020 09:02

Sorry buywell but I distinctly remember you on here singing BATS praises a few years back at £50-plus.

[grahamburn] 18/8/2020 12:29

Intro from piece in The Times shows proactive moves to reduce debt:
_________________________

One of the world’s biggest tobacco groups is considering a potential sale of its London headquarters to raise more than £250 million.

British American Tobacco, the owner of Dunhill and Lucky Strike cigarettes, said that it was considering a sale-and-leaseback deal for its head office in Westminster.

A spokeswoman said: “We are continually striving to become a stronger, simpler and faster organisation. As part of this journey, we are always exploring ways to best leverage our assets, including the possible option of a sale and subsequent leaseback of our Globe House head office in London.”.......

[trikytree] 18/8/2020 09:53

Yawn buywell spamming again. Sod off.

[geckotheglorious] 17/8/2020 11:57

Stocks dividend-hunters are buying
Looking at which stocks were bought up in UK equity income funds, miner Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) was among the most popular, making up the top 10 positions in 37% of UK equity income funds compared to 27% six months ago. Last month, it increased its dividend by 3% in a show of strength, despite a 20% fall in net profits. British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) has also become a top 10 position in many more portfolios. It still has an attractive 8% dividend yield, yet its shares have taken a knock as smoking rates decline and the group pins its hopes on vaping for future revenues.

[philanderer] 16/8/2020 00:37

Up in smoke: Cigarette ban will be lifted for Level 2 of lockdown

It's been a long, hard fight for the smokers of South Africa: But Cyril Ramaphosa has confirmed the cigarette ban will end, and we're moving to lockdown Level 2.