British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 25/1/2019 10:48

-6% on the week now :-O

[micha14] 25/1/2019 09:43

I doubt it d go much below at all, hang in there and do nothing if you own BAT. Dont just do smth, sith there...

[p0pper] 25/1/2019 08:16

You have to laugh but how depressing, bought 1k shares about a week ago at 2495 already £1k down LOL

[unastubbs] 25/1/2019 08:16

for now the market disagrees. presumably the strong pound is hurting this today. will it go under £24?

[micha14] 25/1/2019 00:10

The reason that BAT is so UNDERvalued is because of phsycological influence of the financial community, meaning that with the threat of menthol ban from FDA the financial community is pessimistic about BAT, about tobacco industry as a whole. The stocks intrinsic value however, is at least x 2.5 times today valuation @ 63£. Why? Because tobacco stocks traded at x 17 times FCF only a year ago, which would be 66£ for today BAT. The pendulum will swing the other way however, towards intrinsic value, it always does. The Q is how long will it take? It may be as little as 12 months or as much as 5 years. Its not going to be more than 5 years is it, so in worst case, very worst case its a doubler in 5 yrs, 14pc annual return, in best case its a doubler in 12 months. BAT is the most compelling risk/reward opportunity in the FTSE100 issues today, and thats why 20pc of our fund is in that stock bought at 32£.

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2019 21:08

Appreciated as always Phil, thanks.

[philanderer] 24/1/2019 21:06

Evening EI

I held COA a few years back and made good money . I think they've sorted out the majority of their pension problems now.

Good management , good products , still plenty of cost cutting advantages, what's not to like ? ;-)


Barclays knocked them back last week when they initiated coverage..

“We initiate at EW as we are cautious on 1) the outlook for top-line growth which limits long-term earnings growth and 2) exceptionals which are still ~10% of EBIT.”

The analysts said their discounted cashflow-driven price target of 75p implies a clean full-year 2018 estimates P/E of 16x and EV/EBIT of 12x.

[this_time_its_different] 24/1/2019 20:49

Bats is oversold, will be at £40 this time next year and £55 the year after. I see no growth in emerging market tobacco sales, a weaker dollar and the fda backing off. Everything bad is price in, the only way is up. Thanksamillion is being absurd with a £20 price target. Sterling is not going past 1.4 for another 6 months.

[wbecki] 24/1/2019 20:45

”Tobacco stocks in downtreand”


Tobacco stocks are trading lower again on near-term concerns over earnings potential. The weakness started yesterday with a downgrade on Altria (MO-4.7%) from Morgan Stanley and has accelerated today with a gloomy note from Jefferies warning on slower buyback activity and reduced leverage levels, per Bloomberg.

Earlier this week, Wells Fargo pointed to Nielsen data showing that cigarette industry volume moderated in the latest 4-week period to -5.0% from -6.7% for the 12-week view.



Volume falls of -5 to -6.7% in 12 weeks

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2019 19:47

Hi Phil, off topic - if you have any view on Coats Plc (COA) would be interested to hear, thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2019 19:45

It's on the Seeking Alpha site, unless registered a link won't work.
I was checking to see the PM price and the info came up in
industry news.

[thanksamillion] 24/1/2019 19:44

p0pper

On revue, I confess the figures I gave for support are incorrect, they should read 2000-2050. Posted from memory and in haste I am afraid.

Look at ohojims chart above, the high in Jan 2008 is the next support level on the way down, 60% below the recent £5 odd high which suggests a match with 61.8% as per fibonacci.

Best ignore TTID's multi-posts, he has been saying the same thing all the way down, ok from £33.

[p0pper] 24/1/2019 19:38

Essential got a link for that, I can't find it on their site, ta

[volsung] 24/1/2019 19:21

Hi Linton5

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2019 19:10

Nielsen data on US cigarette volume -6.7% over the last 12 weeks.

[this_time_its_different] 24/1/2019 19:07

Buying Altria now is equivalent to buying it when it was $5 in 2000 and $15 in 2008, immense value. The dividends alone make it a screaming buy.

[philanderer] 24/1/2019 19:06

And BATS now 2400p stateside.

[p0pper] 24/1/2019 19:02

Altria now just nudging 5% down today

[this_time_its_different] 24/1/2019 18:28

And SQ is doing very well thank you very much, thanks for asking ;)

[this_time_its_different] 24/1/2019 18:27

The forward P/Es on all tobacco stocks are very attractive, so is the dividend yield. Altria is yielding over 7% now, you can make half your money back in 5 years from dividends along (assuming normal dividend growth).

[this_time_its_different] 24/1/2019 18:24

Thanksamillion, I jumped ship at £33, why do I care if it goes lower. I'm just saying it's more likely to go up now than lower given it's valuation and dividend yield.

[philanderer] 24/1/2019 18:13

BATS getting very predictable now ... and not in a good way :-S

[stewart64] 24/1/2019 18:11

If a Domestic share had the fundamentals of BATs it would be trading at 60% today's level. These internatonals are seen as Corbyn and Brexit proof, that's why I am interested. But they are expensive.
Taylor Wimpey...no intangibles on the balance sheet, owned its land bank debt free, strongest balance sheet in the FTSE 100 bar none, profit margin 26%, recently traded at 127p or a fwd. p/e of 6. Puts the BATs price in perspective with its 80 billion of debt. One's Corbyn proof (BAT) the other isn't.
( no position on TW just now btw)

[linton5] 24/1/2019 17:54

Volsung you’ve never changed lol positive as ever at least we made a whack of good old Vedanta