British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[wbecki] 13/1/2019 13:23

Interesting article.

British American Tobacco - Classic Situation With More Reward Than Risk

Summary
British American Tobacco has had a difficult time over the past year; however, I believe this company's stock offers more reward than risk.

The dividend is secure, except for in the case of a menthol ban; however, even then I feel like the company's dividend is maintainable.

BTI is aggressively retiring debt, and I expect that to continue going forward. The debt is the largest risk; however, sometimes investing at a low involves taking risks.

I am a heavy buyer of the company at this time. I recommend other investors who do the same will be heavily rewarded.




Interesting little factoid...
"The nicotine customer pool declined from 366 million people in 2007 to 345 million in 2012. Since then, it has recovered almost back to where it was in 2017 at 362 million people. "

[wbecki] 12/1/2019 12:54

BAT isnt the champion of vaping - Juul is.

BAT isnt champion of emerging markets - Philip Morris is.

"p.s. Look at smoking in Malaysia, Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria etc. POPULATION GROWTH. ICONIC BRANDS. LUCKY STRIKE, NEWPORT, CAMEL ETC. "

Marlboro is superior.

" I am v comfortable with by bat shares"

Yep I would be too. Same for PM, or Mo.

Cannabis is an interesting angle going forward as well.

[micha14] 12/1/2019 00:02

p.s. Look at smoking in Malaysia, Russia, Indonesia, Nigeria etc. POPULATION GROWTH. ICONIC BRANDS. LUCKY STRIKE, NEWPORT, CAMEL ETC. I am v comfortable with by bat shares.

[micha14] 11/1/2019 23:58

The growth in Tobacco is there and it will come from 2 directions
1) EMERGING MARKETS
2) NEXT GEN PRODUCTS, VAPING ETC.

BAT is a CHAMPION of these two. I ve said it before and i ll say it again- do not judge on the course of tobacco from SW1. Look at the Globe.

The world health organization predicts much more smokers in 2050. POPULATION GROWTH.

BAT is a 51£ stock in 3 YEARS.

[creditcrunchies] 11/1/2019 18:33

I don't think I'll buy any more BATS unless they hit £20 I've already got 1000 shares, I'd probably buy more IMB as they pay a higher divi, less exposure to fda and more likely to get bought out.

[philanderer] 11/1/2019 10:23

11th jan Bernstein market perform tp 2950p cut from 3210p

[this_time_its_different] 11/1/2019 09:45

slowly moving up, will get a lot more interest once it breaks £28. A lot of buyers waiting to know that a bottom has occurred before jumping in.

[creditcrunchies] 10/1/2019 21:09

I can see it rising a lot higher than here but a doubler would need growing revenue. When they hit £51 they were on a forward PE in the 20s, in current markets the revenue is falling slowly YoY the NG markets their revenue is tiny in comparison. There's still enough demand in old generation tobacco to pay decent dividends for 20 years or more but I think it'll be a different company. Maybe these global tobacco corps consolidate with mergers that's a strong possibility

[philanderer] 10/1/2019 14:50

Bit of interest as the US opens.

[micha14] 10/1/2019 13:54

Bat bought some iconic brands when they purchased Reynolds. BAT has said plenty about their strategy in reports. As bat generates more and more cash every half year and pays down debt while the threat of menthol ban hangs in the air its the cash which will swing the pendulum the other way. Agree that market priced in the ban as if it happened.Its a doubler from here but may take full 5 years at most which is 14pc per annum still.

[this_time_its_different] 09/1/2019 22:57

Bats is a strong buy, but square and those insurers have more upside than bats. In particular square

[mayzerg] 09/1/2019 17:04

https://helpingthelittleguy.com/the-tobacco-and-home-builder-sectors-an-unlikely-pair-in-a-volatile-market/

[berkshires thataway] 09/1/2019 14:20

TTID, how can you simultaneously describe BATS as a 'STRONG BUY' but recommend people buy LGEN, AV or Square instead? Bizarre

[wbecki] 09/1/2019 14:11

Just a repeat surely of

PMI plans to give up cigs in UK

The company says its goal this year is to replace traditional cigarettes in the nation with e-cigarettes and heated tobacoo products.

"We believe we have an important role to play in helping the U.K. become smoke-free. The commitments announced today are practical steps that could accelerate that goal," says top Philip Morris exec Peter Nixon about the development.




"PMI pledges $1bn to stub out smoking around the world"
Philip Morris International has pledged up to $1bn over the next 12 years to an arm’s-length foundation that will fund scientific research designed to eliminate the use of smoked tobacco around the globe.



Much hinges on their Iqos which saw slowing growth in Japan last year..

[philanderer] 09/1/2019 13:30

'World's biggest tobacco company vows to phase out cigarettes'


Philip Morris International - which makes Marlboro and other leading brands - is moving into smoke-free products.

[philanderer] 09/1/2019 12:10

BATS still not wanted :-S

Credit Suisse 'outperform'


reiterates

[this_time_its_different] 09/1/2019 10:40

Still feels oversold, but I worry about where sterling will move. Most people holding BATS are better off moving into LGEN or AV for income, since with sterling appreciation those will do well.

[this_time_its_different] 09/1/2019 08:32

BATS is dealing with a lot of issues, nicotine reduction, menthol ban, smokers moving from sticks to vape, vape having easier barriers to entry. It is no surprise the stock has halved. Though a good set of numbers and it will move the other way very fast. STRONG BUY

[creditcrunchies] 08/1/2019 20:50

the problem you got here is analysts will be coming out of the woodwork downgrading BATS forcing their share price lower and lower until they switch to a buy recommendation. This is why I was going beserk about the directors of BATS they need to come clean on revenues to gain investor confidence because if they don't analysts will cane this down to £15 before they start saying oversold and buying. Every analyst is going for BATS at the moment because the management of BATS just allow it, the way they talk about BATS is they'll be lucky to still be in business in 10 years time

[this_time_its_different] 08/1/2019 14:39

BATS going up with the market, market is rallying hard either way. Tobacco still got issues, everyone on this board can just go buy Square (NYSE: SQ) and be happy for a change.

[philanderer] 08/1/2019 11:01

Dead cat bounce didn't last long :-S

[this_time_its_different] 08/1/2019 08:10

Altria has always performed better than BATS or PM because of US exposure, you make more money collecting dollars than you do collecting indian rupees or south african rand. Though BATS and PM are safer revenue streams, because if the US turns on the marlboro man one day it's game over. Altria stock is akin to collecting pennies in front of the steam roller, you know one day the game will be up but those pennies are tempting since there are tons to collect.

[gabsterx] 08/1/2019 06:23

Great work Cowen, reacting a year late in an attempt to drive the price down and load up on cheap shares. Reminds me of a quote:

"The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."

- Warren Buffett

I am downgrading Cowen to 'Ignore'.

[wbecki] 07/1/2019 20:25

Cheers Phil.
BAT is looking tempting, but I'd personally nibble Altria first solely on Brand strength, and it's interesting,albeit pricey recent moves into Vaping/Cannabis