British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[thanksamillion] 19/1/2019 10:54

FDA does NOT like what the vaper manufacturers have done.

[micha14] 19/1/2019 00:23

Its depressed because the threat of FDA menthol ban induced panic selling, especially at the end of the year when institutions were cutting losses. Wait till BAT shows 8bln of free cash flow in its 2018 report. Mr Market will find that hard to ignore and ll change its mood.BAT will continue to GROW profits, thats right, growing profits despite the declining market, which globally aint declining. A Champ of emerging markets, of NG products and icon brands this heavyweight dividend payer will surprise all of us. Its a 55£ stock right there

[p0pper] 18/1/2019 21:21

I'm hoping so as I just cannot see why it is still so cheap, watched and watched all through the downturn and seems to have been flat for a couple of months with all good broker ratings etc etc, like we've all said about so many shares, am I missing something?? LOL If I hadn't of had to go out for the rest of the day I would have been able to buy 20p less :(

[philanderer] 18/1/2019 18:28

p0pper, that could turn out to be a fine price :-)

[p0pper] 18/1/2019 17:48

Essential, that's what I'm hoping for, all brokers are favourable and last company statement was good so can't see why it's still at £25 ish, no bounce at all yet. I bought in the other day at 2495

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2019 17:30

That's the point I've made over the last couple of years - BATS is no longer
lower risk. Hopefully there is some sort of counter trend bounce this year.

[creditcrunchies] 18/1/2019 17:19

tobacco market is declining at 3% a year if that trend continues over 10 years that will have an impact. The NG market for BATS is insignificant as a percentage and more regulation is coming in on these products. All of this will suppress the SP, yes it's good value paying investors 8% yield on current share price but how long can they maintain that? Let's face it forward PE of 8 looks cheap but it also looks like a distressed stock, the debt cannot be ignored it's got an altman Z ratio of 1.11 which on this model puts it close to bankruptcy, the dividend cover at 1.48 this is a level where it put the dividend under pressure for safety it should be 2 or above. The risk is higher than people think which is why analysts are laying the boot in this company. It is the worst performing tobacco player in the world.

All of this is fact and shows up on the balance sheet the revenues do not lie

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2019 17:15

Unfortunately I have some indirect exposure to BATS through investment trusts.
It's difficult to avoid completely.

[philanderer] 18/1/2019 14:14

Trundling along just above 2500p :-)

[wbecki] 17/1/2019 15:19

10:47 BTI stock – British American Tobacco

[wbecki] 17/1/2019 15:02

Snippet on BAT share of Japanese HNB market

"According to Nomura, Philip Morris's (NYSE:PM) IQOS had a 71.8% share of Japan's HNB market last year, while BAT's (NYSEMKT:BTI) glo had 20.1% and Ploom TECH had 8.1%."

[thanksamillion] 16/1/2019 15:37

The next set of downward pressures on BATS share price is about to arrive on platform one, a stronger pound.

[p0pper] 16/1/2019 14:32

Lol, me and my big mouth, levelled off :(

[bookbroker] 16/1/2019 10:31

Next time there is a Govt. statement it will read, ‘From henceforth smoking and alcohol related illnesses will be exempt from both Medicare and NHS treatment’, in future walking bear barrels and human ashtrays will have to pay for any related issues to the aforementioned themselves! The drain on health services to these issues and narcotics should not be responsibility of ordinary taxpayers, irrespective of the duty that is received by the exchequer!

[p0pper] 16/1/2019 09:57

Just bought in about 15mins ago, seems to have levelled off and holding it's own now.

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2019 09:54

Menthol looks a side issue. The share price decline predated the FDA menthol
debate, that just gave it an extra push.


Phil previously posted a broker comment which to me looks key to
the sector outlook... By 2025 new gen may represent 40% plus of tobacco
sales in developed markets. Big tobacco might not dominate this space as
they have with conventional sticks, plus margins may be lower on new gen.

Disruption is the major headwind, if you think that's now reflected in the SP, BATS could be a nice buy.

[thanksamillion] 16/1/2019 09:09

Micha14

You will be pleased to know I wont be sinking to THAT level, and thanks for the considered comments.

[micha14] 15/1/2019 23:13

Lets get serious here. Thanksamillion be serious please.

1.Most directors already own several millions worth of shares in BAT, look in the annual report. Their compensations is also hugely in shares. Durante the former CEO owns 13m £ of stock in the company and all the board have large steaks, so they really dont need to buy more
2. Your technicals are just chart reading, nothing else
3. Negative sentiment- where is it? BAT bought the remaining 61pc of Reynolds on a multiple of 27 of net profits. Do you think these guys didnt take menthol exposure into account or dont know the company's worth? The do, since they already owned 39pc of Reynolds for many years. The negative sentiment comes as insitutional managers clean up portofolios before year end, it means nothing.
4. The free cash flow, that is owner earnings will be near 8bln£ in the next annual report, so keep waiting for that FDA court case which may never come, BAT is a CHAM

[thanksamillion] 15/1/2019 19:15

Wow, we have a self appointed Board adjudicator among us, I stand corrected, shame about the typo.

[wbecki] 15/1/2019 13:05

"I thought it too obvious to repeat, but here goes"

Boards are for dialogue, swapping thoughts and ideas surely?

One liners aid no one.



"Do you not agree that there is some news regarding the tobacco companies we are not yet privy to."

Nope.

It's all in the open.The FDA issue will take a year or so to play out.In the meantime BAT will keep reaping the profits and cashflow and paying its divi.

"Additionally no serious director buying yet.Next leg down will commence shortly."

Possibly. Possibly not. The negative sentiment means you're likely to be correct, especially if there is another market downturn.

As to director buying ever heard of not putting all your eggs in one basket?
I'd personally never buy stock in my employer,ever. Over exposed to sector/cormpany risk....

[thanksamillion] 15/1/2019 12:06

I thought it too obvious to repeat, but here goes.
The share price has more than halved but not yet reached a technical bottom, all this on gossip of restrictions to vape etc etc. Profits holding up well and customer base expected to rise yet still this astounding fall. Some sort of technical bottom could be reached around £22. Do you not agree that there is some news regarding the tobacco companies we are not yet privy to. Additionally no serious director buying yet. Next leg down will commence shortly.

[wbecki] 14/1/2019 16:21

Why Thanksamillion?
Pointless comment unless you're going to provide some meat to a one liner.

[thanksamillion] 14/1/2019 15:54

bargepole comes to mind here

[micha14] 13/1/2019 22:12

Thanks for the info! "The nicotine customer pool declined from 366 million people in 2007 to 345 million in 2012. Since then, it has recovered almost back to where it was in 2017 at 362 million people. "- PRECISELY!!!

Phillip Morris has that one coveted brand called MARLBOROUGH, but after that its all BAT- lucky strike, rothmans, camel, newport. BAT is no weaker than PMI but- PMI is a great stock right now also!! It has been effected by menthol ban in the USA even though it doesnt sell any menthol in the USA! GREAT STOCK at these levels.

BAT is a champion of vaping and new gen products globally, more than JUUL globally.

BAT has no problem with the debt, its interest cover in cash is x 7.5. Ben Graham was happy with 5. Does anyone know when is the US menthol ban ACTUALLY START? WHATS THE DATE OF THIS BAN?