British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[berkshires thataway] 31/12/2018 20:43

In my experience, a recommendation from Questor is generally the kiss of death for a share, so maybe that explains the fall today!

[volsung] 31/12/2018 17:10

I’d say £14 is more likely

[this_time_its_different] 31/12/2018 16:51

Tobacco I feel is positioned for a strong run, BATS may very well finish 2019 at £45.

[this_time_its_different] 31/12/2018 16:21

Happy New Year, as ben graham once said, in times of despair, "this too shall pass". I sense a strong run for equities after Q1 earnings. We have gone through enough c-r-a-p in 2018.

[this_time_its_different] 31/12/2018 16:19

2018 was a dog of a year, crash in January, crash in October. First real bear market since 2011. Tobacco got hammered, pound got hammered, let's forget 2018 and bring on 2019. 2018 will go down in my book with the likes of 2008 and 2011, useless years to be invested.

[philanderer] 31/12/2018 15:52

At least IMB went in the right direction 🙄

A very Happy New Year to everyone 😀👍🏼

[wbecki] 31/12/2018 15:21

££ wont go to $1.37 unless Brexit is overturned.

And then it's civil war so any sterling spike wont last long

Allez gilets jaunes.

[this_time_its_different] 31/12/2018 10:06

Lets say a brexit deal goes through sometime between now and March 2019, and sterling moves from 1.27 to 1.37. What the hell is going to happen to BATS? £20? £19? £18? Just interested to know.

[philanderer] 30/12/2018 21:06

BATS one of the Telegraph's Questor tips for 2019

[micha14] 28/12/2018 17:57

The divi is already at 7percent. What Bats needs to do now is to show strong earnings growth, in cash, and that ll shut Mr Market up. The only thing that shuts Mr Markets bickerings is earnings

[philanderer] 28/12/2018 17:34

Top day, all twenty two blue. 😀

[this_time_its_different] 28/12/2018 15:59

The risks are there but the market has taken it too far, BATS has been grouped with the likes of Debenhams in its decline, when it is not. BATS board need to raise that divi, that will automatically push the stock higher as income investors jump on.

[micha14] 28/12/2018 15:52

So you can see why the stock has been hammered- No reasining for this
Biggest risk for BATS is menthol ban- The market thinks this is already happened, its very far from it, if at all
Second risk is nicotine reduction- There is population growth in emerging markets and World Health org disagrees with nicotine reduction
Third risk is generic vapes- Again,emerging markets
Fourth risk is debt pile and rising interest rates- The debt pile is comfortably covered at 7 times earnings

[this_time_its_different] 28/12/2018 11:55

Nicotine reduction and menthol ban I don't see happening. Generic vapes are an issue, but can be blocked with flavour bans (to an extent). Debt pile can be brought down by holding the dividend. US may rise one more time in 2019. General outlook for me is BATS is a buy.

[this_time_its_different] 28/12/2018 11:34

Biggest risk for BATS is menthol ban. Second risk is nicotine reduction. Third risk is generic vapes. Fourth risk is debt pile and rising interest rates. So you can see why the stock has been hammered.

[karateboy] 28/12/2018 11:31

It reminds of SHP. share price dropped so much a Japanese , smaller company made an offer for Much bigger SHP. As we feel share price drop is overdone we are buying , so it must be competitors. Only time will tell.

[this_time_its_different] 28/12/2018 11:23

The Chinese are not going to buy BATS. They make enough with their state owned tobacco empires.

[tomleafs] 28/12/2018 10:58

You really think the Chinese will pay a premium for intellectual property? ;)

[karateboy] 28/12/2018 10:47

I wonder with Such a low share price anybody out there especially Chinese may be tempted to make on offer for BATS.

[philanderer] 28/12/2018 10:11

Promising looking day so far and yesterday was good as well, as we went xd for the 49p dividend so ending flat on a poor market day.

Sunny again here in San Remo as a bonus as well 😀👍🏼

[this_time_its_different] 28/12/2018 10:02

£22, guess that's gone now. Or are we waiting for £10 now.

[micha14] 28/12/2018 00:07

Taking into account the earnings on the Reynolds as well, it has ROCE of 50pc and ROCE of 90pc on tangible equity. If you took away Reynolds, free cash flow on BAT is 4.3bln not to mention all the moats, distribution networks,brand power etc. The WHO estimates there ll be much more smokers in 2050 than now, population growth. This company will be at 70£ in 3-5 years

[this_time_its_different] 27/12/2018 19:14

STRONG BUY

[this_time_its_different] 27/12/2018 19:00

You are fools to want to go bottom fishing, you will miss the bottom altogether. You want to dollar cost average into something like BATS.

[this_time_its_different] 27/12/2018 18:55

And no the company is no more riskier than it was a year ago, the problem is the potential menthol ban in the US, not the debt. The debt can be paid down with the dividend, the menthol ban can't and would lead to a massive destruction of EPS and a total rerating of the stock.