British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[this_time_its_different] 24/12/2018 11:31

thanksamillion, BATS didn't close below £25 you m-u-g, you look at the closing price for a bottom.

[this_time_its_different] 24/12/2018 11:28

Stock prices only half in major recessions, and even then defensive stocks don't have. There are serious issues with future EPS at BATS for it to half, the market has it wrong though and the stock will recover fast. STRONG BUY. Don't listen to any fear mongering. The average bull market goes up 400%, the average bear market is down 25%.

[this_time_its_different] 24/12/2018 11:24

1929 will never happen again, we are not in a speculative bubble, markets now have circuit breakers to calm markets, the fed and the treasury give forward guidance to calm investors, banks have higher capital ratios, there is much more liquidity and volume in the system to stop it. BATS is going to go up now, that was your bottom. It's never getting to £20.

[volsung] 24/12/2018 10:04

You’d have to be BATS to invest in this

[eeza] 24/12/2018 09:53

Probably a typo. 2025.

[thanksamillion] 24/12/2018 09:46

EV

2225 seems an awfull long way off. You rec'n BATS as one for the long term then?

Meanwhile it broke below £25 today, seems TTID's bottom predictions wrong again, so I will repeat my own - 2050-2250, assuming the market does not take a 1929 swoon, if it does then ALL bets are off.

[essentialinvestor] 21/12/2018 18:36

Phil posted a broker summary a few months ago which
gave a view that by 2225, around 45% of tobacco
sales in developed economies would compromise new gen products.

Now if that is anyway near accurate, big tobacco needs to
grab a fat % of those new gen sales. If not, the outlook
becomes very ugly indeed.

And that's the crux of the issue, the market is under attack from
non traditional tobacco companies, offering their own products.
The monopoly is no longer.

That is before considering the lower margins available on vape etc.

The share price was falling long before the menthol issue came to light,
that just quickened the pace.

Given how much BATS has fallen you can make a case for a contra sentiment
buy, dogs of the FTSE100 etc. However there are big longer term
challenges outside of the menthol debate, and frankly if you don't understand
that, you may not understand the sector.

[dbensimon] 21/12/2018 18:14

I couldn't agree more. We are entering a very uncertain times and 2019 will highlight that.

[wunderbar] 21/12/2018 16:45

I for one am bewildered at the continual hammering of share price - now c.2500p. Naturally I'm a tad concerned having made multitple purchases between 2550-3600p. I genuinely thought following recent trading update [forward guidance met] this would stop the rot - alas NO!

I personally don't blame management for this collapse - who could've predicted FDA's proposal to ban menthol cigarettes a mere year or so after acquiring Reynolds American - at best it's simply bad timing [but I might argue they paid too much - as is always the case with acquisitions it seems]. Right now there's nothing more for BATS to say, the ball is now in FDA's court to provide the scientific evidence to backup their proposed menthol ban. I somehow suspect if and when we get down to the nitty gritty BATS will fight this decision all the way - possibly resulting in many years of litigation all the while still reaping in huge profits from menthol whilst forking out tens of millions in legal fees which in the grand scheme of things is small change.

Most shareholders likely hope the market has now fully priced in a menthol ban and associated drop in profits [and writedowns]. Let's be realistic, even if ban becomes law [I just can't see it] majority of menthol smokers won't stop smoking but merely switch to something else which might happen to be a brand of BATS anyway.

For me BATS is a 3-5 year hold - given that I believe this menthol fiasco has been overblown I'd be very disappointed if shareprice doesn't recover to c3000-3500p during 2019.

[philanderer] 21/12/2018 16:02

Oh dear , oh dear, what a surprise, it's down again.


Happy Festivus everyone , I'm off to the sunshine for a few weeks .

[wunderbar] 21/12/2018 15:54

Motley Fool championing BATS for 2019 recovery.

[essentialinvestor] 21/12/2018 12:10

They updated comprehensively on guidance just recently.

[this_time_its_different] 21/12/2018 12:03

Yes, still holding Square. I got in at $36 and it's a long term hold for me. The stock has been hammered 50% from $102 to $55. It's a good entry point if your time horizon is 5 years plus. Market in general is oversold everywhere.

[creditcrunchies] 21/12/2018 11:56

The point I am making though is you have got analysts advising clients on revenues basically saying Reynolds will be a can of worms because of the risk and the huge debt they've created by acquiring it. Now BATS need to come out fighting with guidance on revenue but they are doing nothing, they are not even acknowledging there is a problem but the market sure thinks we have an enormous problem. This is the job of the board of a public listed company they cannot ignore it. f they do not come out with guidance on the risk then people always sell first ask later it's the nature of the beast. I've seen companies completely collapse into the penny share territory if they do not stop the rot.

[essentialinvestor] 21/12/2018 11:33

CC, a new management team is not going to change much,
the damage has been done. They can't manic away the debt.

IMB is outperfming relatively because of lower debt metrics
and less US market exposure.

[unastubbs] 21/12/2018 11:28

IMB v BATS = cyanide v noose

[creditcrunchies] 21/12/2018 10:59

Problem is though it is this BATS board that created the problem they bought Reynolds put massive debt on the balance sheet and this asset will create collapsing revenues it is a massive cluster FU. Instìtutional investors know this they will want change at the top what is worse they had an investors presentation that was stage managed not one single person asked the question of why is the share price crashing, are directors going to refuse their fat bonus because of their FU, why has the company collapsed in value that is the largest probably in the entire history of BATS. All I see right now is red warning lights yes there is great value but what is the game plan to fix the crash? This is the worst performing company in the entire FTSE index by a long long way. IMB is a much safer investment than BATS

[robizm] 21/12/2018 10:14

Will £25 hold. This share is being driven down relentlessly with an 8% dividend yield and almost recession proof. The major fly in the ointment is the menthol ban

[robizm] 21/12/2018 09:30

I think the menthol ban discussion is weighing on the share price ex divi on Monday well Wednesday but that is boxing day

[creditcrunchies] 20/12/2018 22:37

I actually think IMB is a better investment it's dropping at half the rate BATS is doing, it's on a forward yield of 9% vs BATS on 8%. BATS will just keep crashing until they sack board members now best off waiting for the sacking then it should rally with new management team. Institutions will insist on it because public listed companies can't get away of carnage like this. The management have created the largest rate of collapse in three years in just one

[philanderer] 20/12/2018 19:09

DJones -600 pts

BATS stateside 2515p