Bp Share Discussion Threads

[mortlolc] 06/10/2023 13:29

If the story in the Times this afternoon pans out then Exxon are out of the picture with regards to BP (for now!) I know they could still probably fund a bid, but if they do spend $60 Billion on Pioneer Natural Resources they might want to wait a bit!

[marktime1231] 06/10/2023 13:28

A strange slump in oil prices off $10 in a week where nothing really changed to alter demand or supply outlook, the best guess from puzzled commentators is that it is down to "fears". Who would be an oil trader or big oil investor!

GS outlooking $100 this Winter trumped by Citi outlooking $70 next Summer. Citi goes so far to say this effect will knock the whole of the oil-heavy FTSE so sell the UK full-stop. Jeepers, just when I thought the UK economy was driven by things like insurance and marketing.

A thinkpiece in the FT last weekend wondering why some global companies are continuing to do business with and in Russia. No way of extracting any proceeds, no opportunity to realise assets, and if the West seizes Russia's international assets to pay reparation and to rebuild Ukraine the chance is that Russia will just seize any remaining foreign assets on its soil. Little hope of recovering Rosneft value then.

Unless. I mean why would a handful of major companies ignore the reputational and financial risks, eyes wide open, and yet several are still doing so.

Theory 1 - well we know that Russia can be persuaded to do deals in its own best interest if you are negotiating from strength; so some guys are bypassing the sanctions, did I see Glencore are still trading copper via Turkey for example? Is it possible that BP (and Shell and ..) control the technology and expertise and people in E&P necessary to help Russia keep pumping oil and gas and would they exchange that for Rosneft compensation? (They can have Looney for nothing) Are Russia's "voluntary" production cuts and refinery export restriction signs that it is struggling when it is desperate for export $? Back to the Cold War era blackmarket economy where Levi jeans were worth more than gold, or is the notion that Russia needs us for anything old hat? There will be some things they need which only we in the free West have got, but I'm not sure what exactly is our leverage now. International shipping insurance? I read that Russia is so desperate to find ways to export it is sending unsuitable shipping on Arctic routes. Anyway, watch closely and drill down to where Russia is hurting hard, and if you can help through a circuitous route it gives you a bargaining chance.

Theory 2 - some companies are playing the long game, keeping the door open for when Ukraine runs out of resources to pretend it can retake occupied regions, or for when both sides have tired of bombing the life out of each other and reached such a stalemate that it is safe to send in the UN and broker a peace. Ukraine could go on forever, but if you remove the Zelensky - Putin personalities it softens the will to fight to the death. So being on the doorstep and in touch brings opportunity worth getting caught breaching sanctions for. Sounds rather grubby but business is grubby.

But actually I can't see BP wanting to return to doing business as usual with Russia anytime, or indeed with neighbouring countries which have been taking sides and have cross-border dependencies. What on Earth are Slovakia members of EU and NATO thinking for example. So let's go with Theory 1, and trade what we can in exchange for a token of Rosneft. For example imagine a disaster at an oilfield or refinery where BP used to be partner, and in the interests of whatever an international intervention is organised so then let's have our quid pro quo. Equipping Ukraine with force projection capability, so ...

[hellscream] 06/10/2023 07:23

exxon couldnt afford BP, anything under $200b would be laughed at.

[younasm] 05/10/2023 17:08

$80 is good price, much better than any crash to $60I see BP at 500p close was missed again.

[hellscream] 05/10/2023 11:54

oil at $80 aint the end of the world..lol yeah getting serious exxon making $12B.

[veryniceperson] 05/10/2023 11:19

Yes, but maybe, but it's still a good, profitable company. Oil and gas will always be needed

[scruff1] 05/10/2023 10:06

Another crash within a crash. Getting serious

[veryniceperson] 05/10/2023 08:33

See, we're getting another kicking. On a positive note is it a buying opportunity?

[johnwise] 04/10/2023 20:11

VIDEO

The Net Zero con

[veryniceperson] 04/10/2023 19:00

Ridiculous price drop. - 16

[meb123] 04/10/2023 17:00

Typical , a touch under 500 . Just shows there is manipulation in the price and not all about supply and demand

[scruff1] 04/10/2023 16:39

I think Opec might have summat to say about $60

[hellscream] 04/10/2023 16:19

world is short of oil by like 3 million a day, and the cuts will extend to march.. dont know where your $60 oil comes into play... grampa gotta also refill that SPR at some point.

[younasm] 04/10/2023 16:16

Very unlikely to exceed more than $100 for more than a few weeks - there is just too much oil looking for buyers .....On the downside it could spike down to $60 by Q1 2024. Average price for 2024 is probably $80 bbl.

[kasamavic] 04/10/2023 16:11

I was looking to buy at 460 anticipating a rise to 520, but missed it.I still think 460 is on the cards before another rise, possibly the Xmas rally.

[hellscream] 04/10/2023 16:11

america lost the war on oil, oil gonna go to $100.

[younasm] 04/10/2023 16:07

Oil price WTI going back to $80 at this rate ; BP back in 480-500 range

[meb123] 04/10/2023 15:49

Smashed through 500 on the downside like knife through butter . Maybe 500 is resistance now . Sighs....

[scruff1] 04/10/2023 15:24

Crash within a crash last few minutes. Jaysus

[veryniceperson] 04/10/2023 15:00

- 28 in the last 3 days. Bit of a knock back

[meb123] 04/10/2023 13:24

" the oil price is holding this back " .... Not sure what to make of this statement in the current environment lol

[younasm] 04/10/2023 13:10

The oil price is holding this back, 480-500 should be solid support.Unfortunately, I am expecting the physical oil market to be "flooded" with oil after the recent supply hiccups. Let's see what happens, WTI should average around $80 bbl.Iraq / Libya / Iran / Nigeria are facing various logistics / infrastructure and political issues.

[daler1966] 04/10/2023 13:00

Saudís tighten supply and BP down

[meb123] 04/10/2023 12:46

Hopefully 500p proves to be a good support level . Then onwards and upwards :)