Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[nufckk] 14/2/2021 17:06

Lets hope so Gark, if the headline is correct it certainly makes a mockery of Eli's constant " constructive dialogue", "colaboration", "best of chums" narrative. Get the feeling Warbaby is talking more sense re timescales than our leaders.
From last years interims...."Whilst the Etinde development plan has been inconclusive in the recent past, we are convinced that
the likelihood of the successful development of Etinde remains promising in a normal macro
environment and the development will commence in the next 12 months"
Blame it on the Covid I suppose

[gark] 14/2/2021 16:17

I am not convinced they are that reliable so wouldn't pay for the paper. Sometimes they get it right but on given that the politicians support this as it is important for the economy I am not sure what they are talking about.

[ham74] 14/2/2021 15:51

In January 2020, Africa Intelligence published an article suggesting New Age was contemplating withdrawal from Africa: hxxps://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_state-strategy/2020/01/07/etinde-and-marine-iii-weather-new-age-s-clearance-sale,108388350-art

9 months later, however, they reported that Congo had actually extended New Age's Marine III license: hxxps://www.africaintelligence.com/oil--gas_exploration-production/2020/12/10/sassou-extends-new-age-s-marine-iii-exploration-licence,109626752-bre


The New Age website still says that FID is expected early 2021, under the Cameroon section here: hxxps://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/cameroon/

The above is only based on headlines...I have not read all of the stories, but the January 2020 call seems to have been proved wrong.

How reliable is Africa Intelligence? Does anyone have a view?

[ham74] 14/2/2021 15:24

It looks like you could get access for 6 Euros (just over 5 quid) if you wanted to read the story.

[gark] 14/2/2021 14:57

Headline from Africa Intelligence:New Age far from starting production on Etinde despite promise of new contractNumerous financial and political obstacles are preventing New Age from beginning production on Etinde block, agreement of principle or not. Anyone got access?

[dealy] 13/2/2021 12:12

The book value is currently about 50p per share. The market value of the assets is of course unclear but even 50% discount would get the stock to 25p or triple current level, almost as a minimum

[jordaggy] 13/2/2021 11:54

So 29p tangibles, plus another 10p intangibles...I need 112p to break even...hey ho.

[dealy] 13/2/2021 11:47

agreed, but it ain't zero thats for sure.

[ham74] 13/2/2021 10:43

Or maybe even USD 150 million ( GBP 108 million ) based on the company's accounts. The valuation could go up or down based on stuff like the gas price, discount rates and so on.

[dealy] 13/2/2021 09:45

So the company is valued at net cash meaning the entire stake in Etinde has an implied valuation of zero whereas in fact it is probably worth 100m.

[warbaby43] 12/2/2021 13:39

With a hat tip to Hamz74 over on LSE:



And from the Tullow site:



At first site an EG transaction that is encouraging when considering BLVN's 48.8 mboe but the Tullow sale is of an established long producing asset not one with just FID - which is still a long uncertain way off for BLVN and its holders

[gseppi] 04/2/2021 15:16

Many moons ago by luck I was invested in blvn when they struck oil the price went up to 400p+ in the end I sold out at 325p.

There was talk about pipe lines, gas exports, meetings with permits issued and agreed by the king/president of Cameroon and how great Kevin Heart was (is he still there?)

What I wanted to ask why has this become a penny stock. What happened?

I just can’t be bothered scrolling back the RNS’s that far back.

[andymunchkin] 04/2/2021 11:44

iamthedogman20 Feb '14 - 17:54 - 13 of 19115
0 0 0
Le_com

I would expect nothing less from a gunnnnnnnnnnner !!!!!!!!

[winnet] 03/2/2021 19:07

Hey folks. Just doing my annual pop-in on this board to see how it's all panning out.

Exactly as I predicted is the answer of course.

Interesting to see the main COC cheerleaders from the coup still present and correct in a wrong sort of way.

Seen a little renewed interest in the last few weeks. Of course, i could never buy into a business where the majority of owners are psychopaths, but I wish all the LTHs from the noughties all the very best. Let hope they get at least part of their investment back before the turn in oil

[warbaby43] 03/2/2021 15:13

As I recall, Chahin had mentioned this pipeline as a precedent for Cameroon being able to agree an export facility with neighbouring countries:

[warbaby43] 03/2/2021 14:39

No wonder they can't/won't pay their whack for costs incurred by their 20%. I make the FCFA 383.4bn the equivalent of $702m (but please feel free to correct if my sum is wrong)

With a hat tip to happy sparrow over at LSE VOG:

[warbaby43] 02/2/2021 13:23

Published in Upstream Magazine today:

Upstream

New Age cheered by vital green light from Cameroon for up to $700m Etinde project

2 February 2021

Iain Esau



Final investment decision on condensate and gas project targeted for 2021, as privately-owned operator is granted approval to apply for fresh development licence.

Privately owned New Age has been given the go-ahead by Cameroon’s government to apply for a fresh exploitation licence for its long-delayed Etinde condensate and gas project, on which a final investment decision could be made this year.

London-listed junior Bowleven, an asset partner, said last week that New Age “has received formal approval to apply for a new Etinde exploitation agreement (EEA)”, which would replace the existing EEA that came into force by presidential decree in January 2015.

The agreement was reached, said Bowleven, after discussions with Societe Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH), the national oil and gas company.

The new EEA would be for the production of hydrocarbons including the delivery of gas to thermal power plants or any other projects confirmed by the government.

Etinde's estimated in place resources stand at about 1 trillion cubic feet of condensate-rich gas.

Commenting on the announcement, Bowleven chief executive Eli Chahin said: “Following a constructive dialogue between the Etinde joint venture partners and SNH, authorisation to apply for a replacement EEA has been granted.

“This is very positive news for the Etinde development, as it essentially eliminates the possibility of the government removing the Etinde licence from the joint venture partners, following the end of the initial six-year development implementation period in January 2021.”

Chahin said the partners “continue to make good progress towards achieving a final investment decision on the licence in 2021", based on an indicative cost – subject to change – of about $600 million to $700 million.

In mid-2020, a Paris-based financial advisory firm, Cofarco, was appointed by Bowleven and New Age to support the process of obtaining financing for the project.

Speaking in December at Bowleven’s annual general meeting, he said TechnipFMC had just about completed front-end engineering and design work on the shallow water Etinde project, with a focus on how best to monetise the asset’s associated gas.

Optimal locations for development wells at the IM field are being evaluated, said chief financial officer Nick Brough, while the IE discovery is being eyed for inclusion in the planned project, and legacy discoveries such as IC and ID are being evaluated as future step-out development options.

Chahin said the partners — including Russia’s Lukoil — are focused on how best to re-inject and recycle Etinde’s gas while managing fluctuations in domestic demand and maximising condensate production, which is crucial to the project’s viability.

Initially, domestic demand for gas is expected to be “low", he said, but could call for the ability to supply fixed volumes of gas to Cameroon for a potential 20-year period.

Gas could be used at proposed power plants at Limbe (350 megawatts) and Douala (150 MW).

An additional option could see Etinde’s gas sent to Bioko Island in neighbouring Equatorial Guinea where it would provide backfill feedstock for the Equatorial Guinea LNG plant.

One of Chahin’s slides at the AGM presentation, indicated gas and liquids from IM and IE being sent to an onshore processing facility at Limbe via a 30-kilometre, 12-inch diameter pipeline.

The plant would separate the gas – up to 150 million cubic feet per day - and liquids offloaded to a costal jetty for export.

From Limbe, gas could be sent to Bioko via a 50-kilometre, 12-inch line, assuming gas is not prioritised towards Cameroon.

[buy_more] 02/2/2021 13:09

hopefully we will close the gap soon at around 6.31p

[warbaby43] 01/2/2021 12:18

Ok gark, thanks for that and I take your point re perception of value being hardened should FID be achieved. Lots of hurdles still to be jumped though and there are always those nasty unknown unknowns.

One thing that can be said for Etinde, though, is that while the pressures and geology might be challenging, it is shallow water and if Mr Chahin's figure of JVP development costs for IM of $600/700m is anywhere near correct, then that looks pretty modest when put alongside the posited $4.1bn that Cairn were talking about for their 40% (99 mmboe) interest in the Senegal Phase 1 Sangomar development that Lukoil bid for recently before being pre-empted by Woodside (see Cairn's presentation with their March 2020 Results)

[gark] 01/2/2021 11:24

Might be missing something but that is how I see it.

[gark] 01/2/2021 11:24

According to the company, the value of their portion of the Etinde project is $150mn and that is what it is valued at on the balance sheet. That followed a write down on the back of a conservative valuation model.In respect of cash, yes the $7/8mn held of balance sheet plus the JV partners payment of $25mn on FID.If we get into production the value of Etinde will increase given that the $2/3 per barrel they are assigning to our 59mn boe share will move up. Even if we don't but FID occurs then the value should move higher to say $3/5 per barrel I would think.This is all hypothetical so very much depends on outcome as to where we end up.

[warbaby43] 01/2/2021 10:51

"Given the value of the asset on their balance sheet that was lowered from previous, the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment on FID you get to at least $130mn"


"the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment"

gark, re "the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment", are you referring there to the $7/8m balance sheet cash plus the $25m FID cash and Lukoil's $18.75m share of that sum, if my arithmetic is correct on that apportionment?

We don't often disagree but isn't $130m on the adventurous side? Mind you, I'd be doing a jig if you were right or anywhere near on that mark.

[bmwman3] 01/2/2021 08:36

Looking very strong!

[shirley83] 01/2/2021 08:24

Big buys flooding in

[bmwman3] 01/2/2021 05:12

Big week ahead I feel