Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[warbaby43] 12/2/2021 13:39

With a hat tip to Hamz74 over on LSE:



And from the Tullow site:



At first site an EG transaction that is encouraging when considering BLVN's 48.8 mboe but the Tullow sale is of an established long producing asset not one with just FID - which is still a long uncertain way off for BLVN and its holders

[gseppi] 04/2/2021 15:16

Many moons ago by luck I was invested in blvn when they struck oil the price went up to 400p+ in the end I sold out at 325p.

There was talk about pipe lines, gas exports, meetings with permits issued and agreed by the king/president of Cameroon and how great Kevin Heart was (is he still there?)

What I wanted to ask why has this become a penny stock. What happened?

I just can’t be bothered scrolling back the RNS’s that far back.

[andymunchkin] 04/2/2021 11:44

iamthedogman20 Feb '14 - 17:54 - 13 of 19115
0 0 0
Le_com

I would expect nothing less from a gunnnnnnnnnnner !!!!!!!!

[winnet] 03/2/2021 19:07

Hey folks. Just doing my annual pop-in on this board to see how it's all panning out.

Exactly as I predicted is the answer of course.

Interesting to see the main COC cheerleaders from the coup still present and correct in a wrong sort of way.

Seen a little renewed interest in the last few weeks. Of course, i could never buy into a business where the majority of owners are psychopaths, but I wish all the LTHs from the noughties all the very best. Let hope they get at least part of their investment back before the turn in oil

[warbaby43] 03/2/2021 15:13

As I recall, Chahin had mentioned this pipeline as a precedent for Cameroon being able to agree an export facility with neighbouring countries:

[warbaby43] 03/2/2021 14:39

No wonder they can't/won't pay their whack for costs incurred by their 20%. I make the FCFA 383.4bn the equivalent of $702m (but please feel free to correct if my sum is wrong)

With a hat tip to happy sparrow over at LSE VOG:

[warbaby43] 02/2/2021 13:23

Published in Upstream Magazine today:

Upstream

New Age cheered by vital green light from Cameroon for up to $700m Etinde project

2 February 2021

Iain Esau



Final investment decision on condensate and gas project targeted for 2021, as privately-owned operator is granted approval to apply for fresh development licence.

Privately owned New Age has been given the go-ahead by Cameroon’s government to apply for a fresh exploitation licence for its long-delayed Etinde condensate and gas project, on which a final investment decision could be made this year.

London-listed junior Bowleven, an asset partner, said last week that New Age “has received formal approval to apply for a new Etinde exploitation agreement (EEA)”, which would replace the existing EEA that came into force by presidential decree in January 2015.

The agreement was reached, said Bowleven, after discussions with Societe Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH), the national oil and gas company.

The new EEA would be for the production of hydrocarbons including the delivery of gas to thermal power plants or any other projects confirmed by the government.

Etinde's estimated in place resources stand at about 1 trillion cubic feet of condensate-rich gas.

Commenting on the announcement, Bowleven chief executive Eli Chahin said: “Following a constructive dialogue between the Etinde joint venture partners and SNH, authorisation to apply for a replacement EEA has been granted.

“This is very positive news for the Etinde development, as it essentially eliminates the possibility of the government removing the Etinde licence from the joint venture partners, following the end of the initial six-year development implementation period in January 2021.”

Chahin said the partners “continue to make good progress towards achieving a final investment decision on the licence in 2021", based on an indicative cost – subject to change – of about $600 million to $700 million.

In mid-2020, a Paris-based financial advisory firm, Cofarco, was appointed by Bowleven and New Age to support the process of obtaining financing for the project.

Speaking in December at Bowleven’s annual general meeting, he said TechnipFMC had just about completed front-end engineering and design work on the shallow water Etinde project, with a focus on how best to monetise the asset’s associated gas.

Optimal locations for development wells at the IM field are being evaluated, said chief financial officer Nick Brough, while the IE discovery is being eyed for inclusion in the planned project, and legacy discoveries such as IC and ID are being evaluated as future step-out development options.

Chahin said the partners — including Russia’s Lukoil — are focused on how best to re-inject and recycle Etinde’s gas while managing fluctuations in domestic demand and maximising condensate production, which is crucial to the project’s viability.

Initially, domestic demand for gas is expected to be “low", he said, but could call for the ability to supply fixed volumes of gas to Cameroon for a potential 20-year period.

Gas could be used at proposed power plants at Limbe (350 megawatts) and Douala (150 MW).

An additional option could see Etinde’s gas sent to Bioko Island in neighbouring Equatorial Guinea where it would provide backfill feedstock for the Equatorial Guinea LNG plant.

One of Chahin’s slides at the AGM presentation, indicated gas and liquids from IM and IE being sent to an onshore processing facility at Limbe via a 30-kilometre, 12-inch diameter pipeline.

The plant would separate the gas – up to 150 million cubic feet per day - and liquids offloaded to a costal jetty for export.

From Limbe, gas could be sent to Bioko via a 50-kilometre, 12-inch line, assuming gas is not prioritised towards Cameroon.

[buy_more] 02/2/2021 13:09

hopefully we will close the gap soon at around 6.31p

[warbaby43] 01/2/2021 12:18

Ok gark, thanks for that and I take your point re perception of value being hardened should FID be achieved. Lots of hurdles still to be jumped though and there are always those nasty unknown unknowns.

One thing that can be said for Etinde, though, is that while the pressures and geology might be challenging, it is shallow water and if Mr Chahin's figure of JVP development costs for IM of $600/700m is anywhere near correct, then that looks pretty modest when put alongside the posited $4.1bn that Cairn were talking about for their 40% (99 mmboe) interest in the Senegal Phase 1 Sangomar development that Lukoil bid for recently before being pre-empted by Woodside (see Cairn's presentation with their March 2020 Results)

[gark] 01/2/2021 11:24

Might be missing something but that is how I see it.

[gark] 01/2/2021 11:24

According to the company, the value of their portion of the Etinde project is $150mn and that is what it is valued at on the balance sheet. That followed a write down on the back of a conservative valuation model.In respect of cash, yes the $7/8mn held of balance sheet plus the JV partners payment of $25mn on FID.If we get into production the value of Etinde will increase given that the $2/3 per barrel they are assigning to our 59mn boe share will move up. Even if we don't but FID occurs then the value should move higher to say $3/5 per barrel I would think.This is all hypothetical so very much depends on outcome as to where we end up.

[warbaby43] 01/2/2021 10:51

"Given the value of the asset on their balance sheet that was lowered from previous, the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment on FID you get to at least $130mn"


"the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment"

gark, re "the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment", are you referring there to the $7/8m balance sheet cash plus the $25m FID cash and Lukoil's $18.75m share of that sum, if my arithmetic is correct on that apportionment?

We don't often disagree but isn't $130m on the adventurous side? Mind you, I'd be doing a jig if you were right or anywhere near on that mark.

[bmwman3] 01/2/2021 08:36

Looking very strong!

[shirley83] 01/2/2021 08:24

Big buys flooding in

[bmwman3] 01/2/2021 05:12

Big week ahead I feel

[gark] 31/1/2021 23:09

Given the value of the asset on their balance sheet that was lowered from previous, the cash and unpaid Lukoil payment on FID you get to at least $130mn. Personally I think it is worth more. We will see as you say but I remain positive that it will move higher from here.

[belo horizonte] 31/1/2021 22:33

As I said, it depends on the agreed NPV and what BLVN’s share of that is. Also assuming it does go the route of offering its equity for sale.
At the current exchange rate, it will need to receive around USD130M for a 30p distribution. That is more than it got from the previous sale. I guess we may know the true figures soon enough.
I might add that an NPV of (say) $650m is not a big project and in reality it might turn out to be worth a lot more. I hope so.

[gark] 31/1/2021 20:50

Still infers 30-65p

[belo horizonte] 31/1/2021 19:39

That was before the 15p Special Dividend in early 2019.

[buy_more] 31/1/2021 19:10

here is the report from 2017 with the explanation about the "Bowleven Transformation Incentive Plan". on page 23 are the details as copied below where it's agreed that the share price has to be between gbp 0.45 - 0.80 for a continuous period of at least 3 months.



Bowleven Transformation Incentive Plan
The BTIP was adopted by the Board of the Company on 9 May 2017. The purpose of the BTIP is to align employees with the Company’s long-term goals and performance through the potential for share ownership. Awards under the BTIP are granted at the sole discretion of the Remuneration Committee.
As announced on 12 May 2017, Eli Chahin, the Chief Executive Officer, was granted a right to acquire up to 10,000,000 ordinary shares in
the Company at a nil cost under the BTIP. The Option shall be exercisable subject to and in accordance with the rules of the BTIP, including
the extent to which certain performance conditions are satisfied over the performance period commencing on the date of grant and ending on 31 March 2022. The Option’s performance conditions relate to the attainment of certain share price points between £0.45 and £0.80 per share for a continuous period of at least three months and meeting the annual cost underpin criteria, whereby the annual cash costs incurred must be below the amount set out in the cash expenses target set by the Board. Malus and clawback provisions apply. Options under the BTIP which vest may be exercised within ten years from the date of grant.

[belo horizonte] 31/1/2021 17:37

I can’t see COC wanting to be a producer. The question is what sort of deal can be done with the other partners. Taking cash now reduces project risk so it will have to be at a discount to the project NPV. Question is, what is that?
BLVN sold 40% back in the day for around $250M; thanks for burning through that Kev; so is 20% worth $125M today?
If I remember correctly, COC’s average purchase price was around 28p per share. Adding in the special dividend means it needs 13 -14p just to break even.
To my mind 25 -30p per share seems the likely range.

[buy_more] 31/1/2021 10:59

if we read from post 18821 onward (it was march 2020 when hsbc sold 500k shares) and the share price dropped. now they bought again 500k and together with the positive news you can see what happened to the share price in a very short period of time. chart-wise we are now in a very interesting territory. imo there is a gap at around 6.30p which might be closed before we try to break trough 9.50ish and close above it. looking forward to much more volume in the coming weeks and to the coming news of course.

[warbaby43] 31/1/2021 08:37

This is a dollar industry so rather than first thinking in terms of pence per share, more relevant perhaps to think of what dollar price BLVN's 48.8m boe might be sold for and guestimate what the £/$ rate might be and attempt then to work back towards a range of possible share price

So far as production and the possibility of dividends are concerned, it's going to be at least three years before production, and financing is going to be expensive, given political and surety of gas income risks. Additionally, the other partners are likely to wish to continue drilling, given the raft of other significant prospects that lie within Etinde, so a significant chunk of income remaining after financing is going to be required to fund BLVN's share of those costs.

Throw in the fact that Lukoil's present 30% share entitles it to just c73m boe and the most beneficial outcome for both parties would seem to be for Lukoil to buy BLVN near to or soon after FID, so that their share becomes c 122m boe - much more appropriate for an oilie of their semi major size.

Many more pages still to turn in this story but, at least, there should be a steady flow of updates from now on in.

[rayfenn] 30/1/2021 15:33

If you think BLVN is cheap then look at VOG. At 5p market cap is £12 million