Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[oilbethere] 25/5/2021 17:40

Ridiculous spread again!

[johncasey] 24/5/2021 14:18

whats going on here then?

[alancapone] 24/5/2021 13:27

Back to 400p+?

[buy_more] 22/5/2021 23:15

how come etinde has such a low priority in cameroon? although it's supposed to be a world class field.

[rayfenn] 10/5/2021 16:34

The gas would be sold to Gaz Du Cameroun which is UK owned.

[ctc1] 06/5/2021 14:46

It would make sense to give away the gas to access the condensate. There was time when this was under consideration, instead of trying to squeeze payment out of a bankrupt country.

[ctc1] 28/4/2021 07:46

blvn/crown ocean finding it all not so simple now. However, I do hope that the deep value investing works.

[ctc1] 27/4/2021 12:51

Hi Warbaby43, FID is dependent upon getting finance as far as I'm aware. With Lukoil involved I'm thinking it ought help.

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 18:15

...well obviously we still need to work on that communication part. and the part where no one asked for anything, only for collaboration irritates me as well a bit. :)

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 18:08

We just need patience as per their words below. Patience.



Vladimir Putin: What are the depths there?

Vagit Alekperov: About 25 metres, but we can work at 800 metres or even 1,200 in West Africa.

I would like to note the unique window of opportunity that opened up after the summit in Sochi you held with African countries. In fact, we are beginning to actively work in West Africa: we have started working in three countries and another four have offered to launch joint work. This is unprecedented.

This summit gave an impetus to Russian companies to work in one of the most promising markets: West Africa.

Vladimir Putin: I really liked our African colleagues’ attitude. This was a surprise: no one asked for anything, only for collaboration.

Vagit Alekperov: We can feel it. It would be good to repeat it after some time, because this is such a great support for us, Mr President. Today, it is not just a declaration but these are real projects: in the Republic of the Congo, in Ghana, we are now looking at a number of other countries, and Cameroon today. They know us, they want to work with us, and they want to communicate with us.

[welshki] 06/4/2021 09:54

I asked this very question on the other thread. I don't know if having that 15p divi means 45p becomes 30p, it may well but it may not, doesn't seem to be any definitive guidance on that. At 5p even 30p seems miles away, let alone 45p or 65p/80p.......but this is AIM so who knows........

[gark] 06/4/2021 09:43

That was before the special divi so assume that is 30p to 65p now. Be happy with that range :)

[buy_more] 06/4/2021 09:17

it would be interesting to ask eli about the "btip" - bowleven transformation incentive plan - where it is written that the share price has to be between 45p and 80p in order to aqcuire 10M shares at nil cost. see post 19099

[dealy] 02/4/2021 12:01

Bowleven currently valued at 5m GBP enterprise value. Option value alone must be a multiple of that

[gark] 02/4/2021 11:01

VOG up over 15% on that and puts Etinde at the centre of has driven power in Cameroon. Looking good despite the delay IMO.

[warbaby43] 02/4/2021 10:34

With a hat tip to happy sparrow over at LSE, this from VOG's Update RNS yesterday:

"New Age Letter of Intent ("LoI"). The LoI with New Age, which was originally announced on 5 February 2020, expired on 31 March 2021. In consultation with SNH, GDC and New Age agreed to let the LoI lapse and expedite discussions with SNH on the way forward on the project in line with the Gas Code of Cameroon and the Country's Gas Master Plan. As part of the process, GDC has offered to offtake up to 25 MMscf/d from Etinde, subject to a number of conditions. The whole project still remains conditional upon securing Final Investment Decision ("FID") on the upstream project and award of an Independent Power Producer licence among other things. Recent public statements suggest that the Etinde partners are now likely to secure FID in 2022, before which they will need to renew their Exclusive Exploitation Agreement ("EEA") and seek approval for a revised development plan."

[gark] 31/3/2021 11:55

So 25-50p a range but weighted to the lower end. Would be nice to get out of this eventually.

[warbaby43] 31/3/2021 11:24

Back to good old risk and reward, gark, and I agree that there are good solid reasons that it should all come together but it will just take more time than could ever have been envisaged pre Covid

When it does, a sale to Lukoil, NA or A N Other still most likely, but at what price and here we may differ. I can't see the $229m that your 50p per share would equate to at $1.37, but $100m would be only $1.50 per boe with the $25m FID factored in and that can very easily be envisaged. Similarly, $125m could also easily be on and perhaps even $150m, especially if, the post FEED, seismic reprocessing and FDP, pre FID audit returns BLVN's 20% stake to c60m boe - not an unrealistic expectation.

Near shore, shallow water Etinde, with its gas and liquids, has a lot going for it not least the relatively low cost of development, especially when compared with the likes of of the deep water Senegal asset Lukoil tried to buy from Cairn for $400m before Woodside stepped in and pre-empted them - see pages 14-16:

[welshki] 31/3/2021 11:02

Sorry Dealy I should be more specific with my answer - Etinde will go into production, but BLVN taking their part into production, thats the slim to none chance

[welshki] 31/3/2021 09:12

Hi Dealy.......I'd say that chance is slim to none. As we are no doubt all aware COC by their very nature aren't likely to want to tie their large investment down forever and a day, the time needed and risk associated with taking this all the way through to production, in my opinion, isn't their business model. Plus there is the dividend payout of 15p, it would seem odd to hand out all that cash knowing the large amount of money they would need to go into production. With FID would come the possibility of raising money via debt but it just doesn't seem the most logical approach. I think Etinde and by extension BLVN is going to be sold shortly after FID to either Lukoil or New Age. The price, who knows, I am just glad KH is not negotiating that for us anymore! The most interesting factor for me is the CEOs 10,000,000 options which only trigger at 45p. Seems a crazy price point considering the share price now but they set it knowing all that we know now......just wonder does that 45p include the 15p divi so a sale could happen at 30p and options still trigger, or does a sale need to be at 45p no matter what.......food for thought

[buy_more] 31/3/2021 09:04

ferrostaal didn't realize their project in cameroon because of a too high gas price in cameroon. and still after many years the jvp partners are in discussions about the very same topic with snh. let's see what the next couple of months will bring.