Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[symbo] 14/8/2020 16:33

50% increase in cost of natural gas since end July

[annual austerity] 04/8/2020 09:35

Yes, as one said before, whatever it takes, Manual, Annual or Spaniel!

[buy_more] 03/8/2020 23:16

as lomg as we get to the 'fid' nobody cares if it's an annual event or a manual event ;)

[annual austerity] 03/8/2020 14:14

One notes the rising price of natural gas. While one sees local (rather than global) factors as the key to gas pricing, this can do no harm. But if BLVN is to fill that gap up to 6p, one suspects that sentiment and speculation will not be enough. The right RNS is required. Even confirmation that we are still travelling in the right direction might suffice. Such an RNS would be a Manual Event.

[ham74] 29/7/2020 10:39

Do you have the full research note from Shore Capital? Can you post it here or send it by private message?

[buy_more] 29/7/2020 10:28

warbaby, i also believe fid will happen earliest by end of year. and i am still calculating with usd2/boe IF somoene wants to buy our share. lukoil is investing a lot of money in the western part of africa and if they get the deal to fix sonara it will be perfect for us.

[annual austerity] 29/7/2020 09:29

And one therefore has to ask oneself if there is any prospect of the gap up to 6p being filled in the short term. What are the news items short of FID that could do this? Because speculation alone is struggling to keep the bid above 4p. One needs a Manual, Annual (or even Spaniel?) Event.

[billytkid2] 29/7/2020 09:07

Shore capital are bowlevens house broker and in a recent note they released they said "More recent guidance indicates that project FID is now more likely to occur in H1 2021".

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 14:46

A piece of positive news relates to the Aksa 150 MW plant and the LOI with VOG. It had been concerning that in recent months any mention of their agreement with Aksa had been conspicuously missing from VOG Updates, and Aksa's own MOU with the Cameroon government expired on 1st July, so good news that yesterday's Update contained this:

"GSAs with Aksa Enerji Uretim A.S. ("AKSA") and New Age (African Global Energy) Ltd ("New Age")

Aksa is progressing its in-country applications and agreements for the power plant to be located at Bekoko, a brownfield site which is already equipped with a high voltage substation on the outskirts of Doula.

New Age and the other Etinde licence owners continue to progress their development towards Final Investment Decision and have stated publicly that they are targeting FID in the next 9 months."

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 14:27

Thank you for the trouble in getting the Tullow response ham74, and I confess I'm a little puzzled on the arithmetic - 476 mboe and $575m = $2 per barrel, but perhaps I'm being a bit thick so will welcome correction/explanation. (Is it related to what they actually have an exploitation licence for?)

Regarding Etinde FID timing, plenty of warnings in the H1 Report on the 27th March (last time we heard owt, incidentally) eg:

P1 "Continued progress on Etinde development options and working with joint venture (“JV”)
partners towards agreeing Final Investment Decision (“FID”) in late 2020" and

"Ongoing market volatility, caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic and the recent fall in
global oil prices could potentially have an adverse effect on the Etinde project timeline" and

CEO REview: "We recognise that recent sector volatility has impacted plans for companies in the oil market and across all industries, so whilst
we will continue to pursue our ambition of achieving FID in 2020, there is the potential for timing
slippage." and

"The Operator continues to target Q3 2020 for the integration of these separate work streams followed
by project FID. Whilst we, alongside other JV partners continue to target this date, there is potential
that some short term slippage may occur, given the complexity of the pre-FID planning process and the need for formal regulatory approval by the Government of Cameroon. In addition, it is reasonable
to expect, at this junction, that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to directly and indirectly impact on
the FEED delivery timeline over the coming months. We intend to announce necessary updates when appropriate" but, the bit of positivity:

"Whilst the Etinde development plan has been inconclusive in the recent past, we are convinced that
the likelihood of the successful development of Etinde remains promising in a normal macro
environment and the development will commence in the next 12 months"

Also worth pointing out that back in March the FEED process was posited as taking between five and eight months starting in April but inevitably in this Covid world of less than ideal working arrangements, the chances of the shorter timescale look remote. Given too, the multiple involvements of the Cameroon government my own money would be FID some time in H1 2021. More important that FID does happen rather than when.

[ham74] 28/7/2020 13:11

Warbaby - where does your information come from? Is it one or more of Bowleven RNS, IR, broker research eg Arden Partners report, your own knowledge of the industry?

[ham74] 28/7/2020 13:05

Warbaby - see below email response from Tullow Oil investor relations:

nvestor Relations
13:55 (8 minutes ago)
to me




Thank you for getting in touch.



The cash consideration for the transaction is $500 million at completion and $75 million at final investment decision.



The audited year end 2019 2C resource in Uganda was 276mmboe.



Therefor if you are to exclude the contingent payments post-first oil the price per barrel is c.$2/bbl



Detail on the transaction can be found here:

Audited resources can be found here (on slide 19):



Kind regards

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 11:06

"Final Investment Decision (FID) is due this quarter, it could come any day."

Simply not so, given that the IE seismic reprocessing report is not due until Q4 and it is highly unlikely that the FEED and FDP will be completed before that time and then following these events there will follow an external audit to produce a reserves figure. Further, once cost and revenue estimates are arrived at, there will need to be a negotiation with SNH to determine whether they are going to take up their 20% of Etinde and on what basis that might be bearing in mind their unpaid share of costs to get thus far.

Following all those factors there will inevitably be a period for joint and individual consideration by the JVP partners leading up to FID. Throw in the sub glacial speed at which this industry moves and it will be a minor miracle if it arrives even by Q4. Indeed, Chahin was keen to trail in the H1 Results that the FID timeline could be adversely affected by oil price "volatility"

Incidentally, ham74 going back to your post at 18878 and my question at 18890, I would still be most interested in the answer to the P50 question and how the Tullow/Total $2 per barrel was arrived at.

[buy_more] 27/7/2020 18:31

lukoil bought cairns stake in senegal and it looks like they paid appx. usd2/barrel

[manual dexterity] 27/7/2020 14:51

One will be delighted if so.

[ham74] 25/7/2020 21:56

Cameroon needs to expedite the Etinde development to reduce import needs and generate more tax revenue for the Government. Final Investment Decision (FID) is due this quarter, it could come any day.

[warbaby43] 25/7/2020 10:17

A couple of pieces illustrating why Etinde (and the Sonara refinery) might be of some consequence to Cameroon:





And re Sonara refinery:

[symbo] 24/7/2020 16:55

Nice to see a 4 on the board!

[boston 004] 21/7/2020 22:59

One hopes so :)

[annual austerity] 21/7/2020 08:49

So next stop 5-6p?

[annual austerity] 18/7/2020 20:22

One seems to believe that one’s 5-6p target will be achieved without news. What is one’s thinking? One’s reading of the chart? Or is one in fact expecting news?

This one is genuinely interested in one’s bull case.

[manual dexterity] 18/7/2020 18:27

That 4p broken was indeed a "Manual event."

One knows that once it has broken past that barrier we will shoot upwards towards the 5 to 6p mark.

One needs patience but not the type to consider it an "Annual event."

[annual austerity] 18/7/2020 16:17

It broke up through 4p earlier this year, very briefly. Maybe that was an Annual Event.

[ham74] 17/7/2020 15:15

Buffet bought a natural gas company this month, must be a good sign.