Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[annual austerity] 25/8/2020 13:11

One notes that from time time time the offer slips briefly back below 4p - one would recommend setting a price alert. One suspects that the exercise would have to be repeated a few times to accumulate in size.

[winnet] 25/8/2020 12:09

Just thought i'd pop in and see how the wait is going? Is Belic still posting, or did he have a coronary at the thought of Kevin Hart retiring with his ill-gotten gains...

Seriously, this is looking quite bombed-out now. I might come back in... Maybe even organise a whip-round and a takeover...

:-)

[kbrook] 25/8/2020 08:04

One is not loving the lack of movement in the share price, we need some news, preferably confirmation of FID.

[annual austerity] 24/8/2020 22:21

Even though one must remember that local pricing is the key, one is loving the chart for natural gas...

[ham74] 19/8/2020 11:05

What is most interesting about Cairn's Senegal sale, is that Wood Group will now get the asset, having exercised its pre-emption rights. This is positive for Bowleven as it increases the need for Lukoil to deploy capital elsewhere, and suggests that there could be competition for these sorts of assets.

[ham74] 19/8/2020 10:51

I reached out to the company and they say they are on track for FID this year.

[manual dexterity] 19/8/2020 09:28

One knows patience.

And patience as defined is a "Manual" event.

[annual austerity] 19/8/2020 09:17

But in the meantime one is happy with the price action...

[annual austerity] 18/8/2020 19:50

One would simply be grateful for an update...

[gark] 18/8/2020 18:14

Think it makes Etinde more important for Lukoil. Hopefully they are prepared to pay a proper price for it.

[warbaby43] 18/8/2020 17:56

Flagged up as a possiblity post Cairn's announcement last month - does it make Etinde more or less important to Lukoil?

[symbo] 14/8/2020 17:33

50% increase in cost of natural gas since end July

[annual austerity] 04/8/2020 10:35

Yes, as one said before, whatever it takes, Manual, Annual or Spaniel!

[buy_more] 04/8/2020 00:16

as lomg as we get to the 'fid' nobody cares if it's an annual event or a manual event ;)

[annual austerity] 03/8/2020 15:14

One notes the rising price of natural gas. While one sees local (rather than global) factors as the key to gas pricing, this can do no harm. But if BLVN is to fill that gap up to 6p, one suspects that sentiment and speculation will not be enough. The right RNS is required. Even confirmation that we are still travelling in the right direction might suffice. Such an RNS would be a Manual Event.

[ham74] 29/7/2020 11:39

Do you have the full research note from Shore Capital? Can you post it here or send it by private message?

[buy_more] 29/7/2020 11:28

warbaby, i also believe fid will happen earliest by end of year. and i am still calculating with usd2/boe IF somoene wants to buy our share. lukoil is investing a lot of money in the western part of africa and if they get the deal to fix sonara it will be perfect for us.

[annual austerity] 29/7/2020 10:29

And one therefore has to ask oneself if there is any prospect of the gap up to 6p being filled in the short term. What are the news items short of FID that could do this? Because speculation alone is struggling to keep the bid above 4p. One needs a Manual, Annual (or even Spaniel?) Event.

[billytkid2] 29/7/2020 10:07

Shore capital are bowlevens house broker and in a recent note they released they said "More recent guidance indicates that project FID is now more likely to occur in H1 2021".

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 15:46

A piece of positive news relates to the Aksa 150 MW plant and the LOI with VOG. It had been concerning that in recent months any mention of their agreement with Aksa had been conspicuously missing from VOG Updates, and Aksa's own MOU with the Cameroon government expired on 1st July, so good news that yesterday's Update contained this:

"GSAs with Aksa Enerji Uretim A.S. ("AKSA") and New Age (African Global Energy) Ltd ("New Age")

Aksa is progressing its in-country applications and agreements for the power plant to be located at Bekoko, a brownfield site which is already equipped with a high voltage substation on the outskirts of Doula.

New Age and the other Etinde licence owners continue to progress their development towards Final Investment Decision and have stated publicly that they are targeting FID in the next 9 months."

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 15:27

Thank you for the trouble in getting the Tullow response ham74, and I confess I'm a little puzzled on the arithmetic - 476 mboe and $575m = $2 per barrel, but perhaps I'm being a bit thick so will welcome correction/explanation. (Is it related to what they actually have an exploitation licence for?)

Regarding Etinde FID timing, plenty of warnings in the H1 Report on the 27th March (last time we heard owt, incidentally) eg:

P1 "Continued progress on Etinde development options and working with joint venture (“JV”)
partners towards agreeing Final Investment Decision (“FID”) in late 2020" and

"Ongoing market volatility, caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic and the recent fall in
global oil prices could potentially have an adverse effect on the Etinde project timeline" and

CEO REview: "We recognise that recent sector volatility has impacted plans for companies in the oil market and across all industries, so whilst
we will continue to pursue our ambition of achieving FID in 2020, there is the potential for timing
slippage." and

"The Operator continues to target Q3 2020 for the integration of these separate work streams followed
by project FID. Whilst we, alongside other JV partners continue to target this date, there is potential
that some short term slippage may occur, given the complexity of the pre-FID planning process and the need for formal regulatory approval by the Government of Cameroon. In addition, it is reasonable
to expect, at this junction, that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to directly and indirectly impact on
the FEED delivery timeline over the coming months. We intend to announce necessary updates when appropriate" but, the bit of positivity:

"Whilst the Etinde development plan has been inconclusive in the recent past, we are convinced that
the likelihood of the successful development of Etinde remains promising in a normal macro
environment and the development will commence in the next 12 months"

Also worth pointing out that back in March the FEED process was posited as taking between five and eight months starting in April but inevitably in this Covid world of less than ideal working arrangements, the chances of the shorter timescale look remote. Given too, the multiple involvements of the Cameroon government my own money would be FID some time in H1 2021. More important that FID does happen rather than when.

[ham74] 28/7/2020 14:11

Warbaby - where does your information come from? Is it one or more of Bowleven RNS, IR, broker research eg Arden Partners report, your own knowledge of the industry?

[ham74] 28/7/2020 14:05

Warbaby - see below email response from Tullow Oil investor relations:

nvestor Relations
13:55 (8 minutes ago)
to me




Thank you for getting in touch.



The cash consideration for the transaction is $500 million at completion and $75 million at final investment decision.



The audited year end 2019 2C resource in Uganda was 276mmboe.



Therefor if you are to exclude the contingent payments post-first oil the price per barrel is c.$2/bbl



Detail on the transaction can be found here:

Audited resources can be found here (on slide 19):



Kind regards

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 12:06

"Final Investment Decision (FID) is due this quarter, it could come any day."

Simply not so, given that the IE seismic reprocessing report is not due until Q4 and it is highly unlikely that the FEED and FDP will be completed before that time and then following these events there will follow an external audit to produce a reserves figure. Further, once cost and revenue estimates are arrived at, there will need to be a negotiation with SNH to determine whether they are going to take up their 20% of Etinde and on what basis that might be bearing in mind their unpaid share of costs to get thus far.

Following all those factors there will inevitably be a period for joint and individual consideration by the JVP partners leading up to FID. Throw in the sub glacial speed at which this industry moves and it will be a minor miracle if it arrives even by Q4. Indeed, Chahin was keen to trail in the H1 Results that the FID timeline could be adversely affected by oil price "volatility"

Incidentally, ham74 going back to your post at 18878 and my question at 18890, I would still be most interested in the answer to the P50 question and how the Tullow/Total $2 per barrel was arrived at.