Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 18:57

As a Manual event one has been adding stock to BLVN.

One believes in the takeoff between New Age, Lukoil and Bowleven.

Once FID has been achieved one will see a different company.

One must be vigilant.

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 13:28

As a Manual event one believes Trump has only one card.

And as events go he will play it.

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 07:33

As a solid event one can accept those numbers.

One knows the undervaluation here.

[ham74] 06/6/2020 15:53

Are the Edtinde partners, New Age and/or Lukoil the most likely buyers, or do you think a third (or fourth) party could enter the fray?

[symbo1] 06/6/2020 09:07

Any future sale share price should be expected to be at least in the 20’s range.
COC’s average buy in pre div was approx 28p. They have recouped more than half of their investment by issuing the 15p ps divi. Their full exposure is at about 12p per share now, on which they will want a ROI. Although the 15p return seemed like a good idea for most, i for one would have preferred it hadn’t happened. All we have achieved is a lower price level, from which any multiple offer will be lower due to the phsycological expectations and we’ve derisked COC massively. I would have preferred to feel under more pressure when negotiating and pushing hard for best deal. All that’s going to happen now is that they will be looking for a good return which is no doubt seriously lower than any LTH is going to be happy with but will be powerless to influence. It’s a game and we are all being played.

[manual dexterity] 05/6/2020 15:04

As a Manual event the chart looks appetising.

As is the opportunity.

[manual dexterity] 05/6/2020 10:42

As a Manual event 100k is being offered at a premium to asking price -

And Dexterity agrees with the post above.

[manual dexterity] 02/6/2020 08:15

As a manual event blvn should be 2-3 x current share price.

When / if someone decides on a T/O.

[warbaby43] 01/6/2020 09:21

"I thought they had a buyer lined up but clearly not."


While, as per COC's Letter to Shareholders in Feb 2017, a sale of the company remains the most likely eventuality, until it is known what is being bought, 20% or 25% of Etinde, could there be any realistic offer for BLVN until that is resolved, especially given the margin of difference that 5% represents - 49mboe or 61mboe at P50?

As there is plainly a strong JVP desire in the current negotiations with SNH for them to participate (as well as equally strong reasons for the government of Cameroon to take up the JVP offer) it's most likely to be 20%. From the AR:


"SNH would

also be asked to formerly (whoops!) commit to taking

up their 20% share of the licence, which

would require them to commit to providing

their share of the development budget and

their share of currently unpaid back costs.

As part of this process, the JV

partners may reach an agreement

to fund SNH’s share of current and

past development costs under a

commercial financing agreement"


I have long thought a bid from Lukoil, New Age or A N other to be unlikely until post, or at least closer to, FID and with the FEED report, IE seismic reprocessing outcome, FDP and the translation of IM resources to reserves, all due in Q4, that's when there might be more grounds for bid expectations.


Additionally, given how it's constituted, difficult to see how the present Board could properly handle a bid, given one member is a nominee of COC and t'other a direct appointee, and perhaps Chahin should have been quizzed on this in one of the Conference Calls:


Http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/bowleven1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1058&newsid=1005517


Perhaps, therefore, between now and Q4 a Board change RNS can be expected, which just might, of itself, indicate that summat's afoot.

[manual dexterity] 01/6/2020 07:46

As a Manual event we could be looking like a recovery for Bowleven.

Some good posts above and we could double or more from these levels.

There are some "Manual" bargains in this market.

[manual dexterity] 29/5/2020 07:45

As a Manual event Bowleven should be taken over at, at least twice the share price.

If it happens it will be a Manual Event.

[tomboyb] 27/5/2020 15:01

At a time of considerable market turbulence, we are fortunate to benefit from a robust financial position, with in excess of $10 million of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Coupled with our low cost base, we are well funded to reach FID, after which we will receive $25 million from the JV partners

As per last interims -

Cash Last interims inc investments $13 million. If they can receive the $25million once the FID has been reached then you can see is potentially undervalued at the current share price -

[kbrook] 19/5/2020 13:47

Likewise, could be worse you could have reinvested your divi in this like me ! Or maybe you did

[gark] 18/5/2020 13:16

Too long! Been in and out but now thinking I should have got out after the divi. I thought they had a buyer lined up but clearly not.

[ham74] 17/5/2020 18:23

How long has Gark been invested?

[gark] 15/5/2020 14:10

I can only find that as a flow rate reference. That was using one well so if there are multiple wells then that potentially reflects what each well is capable of producing? Not an expert though by any stretch.

[warbaby43] 15/5/2020 12:12

An interesting scenario portrayed by Happy Sparrow, but despite all the stake taking activity etc, the VOG S P remains firmly in the doldrums just like BLVN's does, despite its really positive FEED RNS. What is bizarre, though, is that skint VOG has more or less the same market cap as BLVN, despite BLVN's P50 50 -60 mboe and $13m in cash (even while some of us would have much preferred that to be nearer the $76m that it could have been)

Where VOG is very relevant to BLVN, though, is with their gas supply LOI with the putative Douala AKSA 150 MW power plant and BLVN's consequent 25-30mmscfd supply LOI with VOG, and I have thought for some while now that IF the AKSA project does proceed, the odds on FID are significantly shortened, subject, of course, to oil price recovery and longer term forecast.

However, even if the AKSA plant does proceed,in the AGM Conference Call, Chahin did say at c 16.45:

"Phase 1 will clearly have an element of gas generation, the problem is much larger than that with a huge amount of gas that we need to export"

Which, of course, raises the question of just how much is "a huge amount" and where else is it going to be able to go, which bring us to the Interims of 27th March in which copious mention is made of gas reinjection and reservoir recycling in the development's early years with the implication that export, presumably to Bioko, is seen as important and highly desirable but something to follow down the line. If anyone has a different interpretation, I would welcome correction.

As far as gas reinjection goes p18 of the AGM Presentation says this:

"NewAge has identified four potential opportunities to reinject gas
• Each opportunity could provide up to 3 years availability at up to ca.50,000 scf/d production"

All well and good maybe, but hardly likely to mop up the rest of that "huge amount of gas" that is needed to be disposed of, which brings us back to the question of how much is "huge"

Indeed, one of the most intriguing questions is just what are the expected flows from the initial IM development. As far as I am aware, all that we do know is that IM-5's maximum flow rates were 60 mmscfd and 7,819 bpd of condensates - all very nice but hardly commensurate with the six well development being planned.

On the Conference Call, Clancy was questioned on flow rates but his reply was just to add up the flows from well tests with the added cautionary note that test rates don't necessarily mean production rates. The trouble with that being that, so far as I know or could find out, the results of the pre 2004 float wells drilled on Etinde are unknown to us.

I tracked back through RNS's and the float RNS in December 2004 did indicate significant assets (though across MLHP-5&6 as well as 7) with this from its initial RNS:

"It controls three shallow offshore blocks in the Etinde Permit area with proved and probable (P50) recoverable reserves (independently assessed) of 60.3 million
barrels of oil equivalent ('mmboe') plus P50 contingent resources of 58.2 mmboe
i.e. a total of 118.5 mmboe of recoverable hydrocarbon volumes. As well as P50
hydrocarbon reserves and contingent resources the 2,300 sq km acreage, which has
had 9 wells drilled in it, has very attractive exploration potential. The
Company has operated in Cameroon since 1999."

Neither here nor in any subsequent RNS could I find any split of those assets though there was mention of an audit report by Scott Pickford accompanying their admission document and being available then on the BLVN website - not now, though, it would seem, as a search for Scott Pickford brings up precisely nowt.

As keeper of the BLVN Royal Archives, does Gark (or anyone else) have any handle on this?

[nufckk] 30/4/2020 16:08

Have a look at Happy Sparrows posts on LSE VOG share chat. It has also been reposted on the VOG ADVFN site.

[symbo] 23/4/2020 12:57

why is price not updating, not been 2.6 for almost hour, now down 4.88%

[buy_more] 20/4/2020 09:57

hi ihavenoclue. i was referring to lukoil when the entered into the etinde project. it was a strategic decision imo. they want etinde and they will fix sonara as well and bring everything together:
hxxps://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/0702-9948-russian-lukoil-in-cameroon-to-negotiate-the-reconstruction-of-sonara

[ihavenoclue] 18/4/2020 20:59

buy_more20 Mar '20 - 16:52 - 18832 of 18850
0 0 0
guys, we are talking here about a 20y+ project. it was a strategic decision to buy etinde. nothing changed so far...

===========================

Bloody hell they haven't done anything with Etinde ? Didn't they buy that when they got FAO ? I was in that at the time but can't remember how long ago that was ... 15 years ?

[nufckk] 06/4/2020 16:21

I’d seen the interview and agree it’s all getting interesting. Also note Askar Alshinbayev the Kazakhstani billionaire who has bought 21% of VOG and the subsequent clearout of directors deadwood in a manner somewhat similar to COC. If and when we get the world back on it’s feet this could get exciting

[warbaby43] 06/4/2020 15:06

Changes at VOG with Mr Kelly's background with Kerogen, one of NA's major shareholders, being noteworthy:

Https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/victoria_oil_gas_plc/news/rns/story/xonk72w


And chairman interview on VOG's problems plus at c 10 mins 20secs references to Etinde, NA deal and challenges of geology and commercialisation in Cameroon:

Https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/5e6a2fd79672d83b987791cf/?VOG&popup=true