Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[kbrook] 19/5/2020 14:47

Likewise, could be worse you could have reinvested your divi in this like me ! Or maybe you did

[gark] 18/5/2020 14:16

Too long! Been in and out but now thinking I should have got out after the divi. I thought they had a buyer lined up but clearly not.

[ham74] 17/5/2020 19:23

How long has Gark been invested?

[gark] 15/5/2020 15:10

I can only find that as a flow rate reference. That was using one well so if there are multiple wells then that potentially reflects what each well is capable of producing? Not an expert though by any stretch.

[warbaby43] 15/5/2020 13:12

An interesting scenario portrayed by Happy Sparrow, but despite all the stake taking activity etc, the VOG S P remains firmly in the doldrums just like BLVN's does, despite its really positive FEED RNS. What is bizarre, though, is that skint VOG has more or less the same market cap as BLVN, despite BLVN's P50 50 -60 mboe and $13m in cash (even while some of us would have much preferred that to be nearer the $76m that it could have been)

Where VOG is very relevant to BLVN, though, is with their gas supply LOI with the putative Douala AKSA 150 MW power plant and BLVN's consequent 25-30mmscfd supply LOI with VOG, and I have thought for some while now that IF the AKSA project does proceed, the odds on FID are significantly shortened, subject, of course, to oil price recovery and longer term forecast.

However, even if the AKSA plant does proceed,in the AGM Conference Call, Chahin did say at c 16.45:

"Phase 1 will clearly have an element of gas generation, the problem is much larger than that with a huge amount of gas that we need to export"

Which, of course, raises the question of just how much is "a huge amount" and where else is it going to be able to go, which bring us to the Interims of 27th March in which copious mention is made of gas reinjection and reservoir recycling in the development's early years with the implication that export, presumably to Bioko, is seen as important and highly desirable but something to follow down the line. If anyone has a different interpretation, I would welcome correction.

As far as gas reinjection goes p18 of the AGM Presentation says this:

"NewAge has identified four potential opportunities to reinject gas
• Each opportunity could provide up to 3 years availability at up to ca.50,000 scf/d production"

All well and good maybe, but hardly likely to mop up the rest of that "huge amount of gas" that is needed to be disposed of, which brings us back to the question of how much is "huge"

Indeed, one of the most intriguing questions is just what are the expected flows from the initial IM development. As far as I am aware, all that we do know is that IM-5's maximum flow rates were 60 mmscfd and 7,819 bpd of condensates - all very nice but hardly commensurate with the six well development being planned.

On the Conference Call, Clancy was questioned on flow rates but his reply was just to add up the flows from well tests with the added cautionary note that test rates don't necessarily mean production rates. The trouble with that being that, so far as I know or could find out, the results of the pre 2004 float wells drilled on Etinde are unknown to us.

I tracked back through RNS's and the float RNS in December 2004 did indicate significant assets (though across MLHP-5&6 as well as 7) with this from its initial RNS:

"It controls three shallow offshore blocks in the Etinde Permit area with proved and probable (P50) recoverable reserves (independently assessed) of 60.3 million
barrels of oil equivalent ('mmboe') plus P50 contingent resources of 58.2 mmboe
i.e. a total of 118.5 mmboe of recoverable hydrocarbon volumes. As well as P50
hydrocarbon reserves and contingent resources the 2,300 sq km acreage, which has
had 9 wells drilled in it, has very attractive exploration potential. The
Company has operated in Cameroon since 1999."

Neither here nor in any subsequent RNS could I find any split of those assets though there was mention of an audit report by Scott Pickford accompanying their admission document and being available then on the BLVN website - not now, though, it would seem, as a search for Scott Pickford brings up precisely nowt.

As keeper of the BLVN Royal Archives, does Gark (or anyone else) have any handle on this?

[nufckk] 30/4/2020 17:08

Have a look at Happy Sparrows posts on LSE VOG share chat. It has also been reposted on the VOG ADVFN site.

[symbo] 23/4/2020 13:57

why is price not updating, not been 2.6 for almost hour, now down 4.88%

[buy_more] 20/4/2020 10:57

hi ihavenoclue. i was referring to lukoil when the entered into the etinde project. it was a strategic decision imo. they want etinde and they will fix sonara as well and bring everything together:
hxxps://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/0702-9948-russian-lukoil-in-cameroon-to-negotiate-the-reconstruction-of-sonara

[ihavenoclue] 18/4/2020 21:59

buy_more20 Mar '20 - 16:52 - 18832 of 18850
0 0 0
guys, we are talking here about a 20y+ project. it was a strategic decision to buy etinde. nothing changed so far...

===========================

Bloody hell they haven't done anything with Etinde ? Didn't they buy that when they got FAO ? I was in that at the time but can't remember how long ago that was ... 15 years ?

[nufckk] 06/4/2020 17:21

I’d seen the interview and agree it’s all getting interesting. Also note Askar Alshinbayev the Kazakhstani billionaire who has bought 21% of VOG and the subsequent clearout of directors deadwood in a manner somewhat similar to COC. If and when we get the world back on it’s feet this could get exciting

[warbaby43] 06/4/2020 16:06

Changes at VOG with Mr Kelly's background with Kerogen, one of NA's major shareholders, being noteworthy:




And chairman interview on VOG's problems plus at c 10 mins 20secs references to Etinde, NA deal and challenges of geology and commercialisation in Cameroon:

[laptop15] 31/3/2020 14:41

Thanks gark

[gark] 31/3/2020 14:11

Q3 but depends on delay due to Covid.

[laptop15] 31/3/2020 13:01

When is FID expected guys?

[nufckk] 30/3/2020 09:17

Thanks Belo, much appreciated

[belo horizonte] 29/3/2020 20:27

Re. Commercial financing agreement.

When a company or JV agrees to fund a government entity’s equity participation, it is usually on the basis that all, or a large percentage of future free cash flow, normally due to the entity, goes first to repaying the other shareholders the amount of the free carry.

[nufckk] 28/3/2020 15:20

Apologies for my ignorance but what does a “commercial financing agreement” mean, or look like?
I note as well they are revisiting the seismic with a view to a separate FID on the IE and IC fields with the results of the seismic expected in Q4. It always sat badly with me that both Bowleven and New Age suggested post drilling that extra reserves would be declared Q4 last year only for them to stay the same.

[warbaby43] 27/3/2020 16:32

"It’ll be interesting to see what the Gov’t have to come up with to get back in the game"

They're skint but, from the AR and pardoning the spelling mistake, this appears to be the plan to tie them in and, very sensibly, keep them in the game:

"The development plan will be submitted
for formal approval to SNH and the
Government of Cameroon. SNH would
also be asked to formerly commit to taking
up their 20% share of the licence, which
would require them to commit to providing
their share of the development budget and
their share of currently unpaid back costs.
As part of this process, the JV
partners may reach an agreement
to fund SNH’s share of current and
past development costs under a
commercial financing agreement."

[nufckk] 27/3/2020 14:48

That’s as good as we dared hope for given the current world situation. It’ll be interesting to see what the Gov’t have to come up with to get back in the game, perhaps letting us off the hook with Bomono will be part of it (though no doubt it’ll not be cheap)

[kbrook] 27/3/2020 07:27

Nothing too untoward there, might be some slippage with Covid19 but I think we all knew that was likely.Encouraged by this paragraph:The collaborative approach with our JV partners bodes well for the Etinde project going forward, as we ramp up activities towards FID. In recent meetings both SNH and the Government of Cameroon have encouraged the JV partners to accelerate efforts towards FID given the increasingly strategic importance of this asset for our host country.

[gark] 27/3/2020 07:18

Cash position is better than I thought and the plans for development sound sensible and quite a way along.

[gark] 26/3/2020 17:33

A while back they said $20-30 a barrel. I think 30 or so it still makes sense