Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[annual austerity] 29/7/2020 10:29

And one therefore has to ask oneself if there is any prospect of the gap up to 6p being filled in the short term. What are the news items short of FID that could do this? Because speculation alone is struggling to keep the bid above 4p. One needs a Manual, Annual (or even Spaniel?) Event.

[billytkid2] 29/7/2020 10:07

Shore capital are bowlevens house broker and in a recent note they released they said "More recent guidance indicates that project FID is now more likely to occur in H1 2021".

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 15:46

A piece of positive news relates to the Aksa 150 MW plant and the LOI with VOG. It had been concerning that in recent months any mention of their agreement with Aksa had been conspicuously missing from VOG Updates, and Aksa's own MOU with the Cameroon government expired on 1st July, so good news that yesterday's Update contained this: "GSAs with Aksa Enerji Uretim A.S. ("AKSA") and New Age (African Global Energy) Ltd ("New Age") Aksa is progressing its in-country applications and agreements for the power plant to be located at Bekoko, a brownfield site which is already equipped with a high voltage substation on the outskirts of Doula. New Age and the other Etinde licence owners continue to progress their development towards Final Investment Decision and have stated publicly that they are targeting FID in the next 9 months."

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 15:27

Thank you for the trouble in getting the Tullow response ham74, and I confess I'm a little puzzled on the arithmetic - 476 mboe and $575m = $2 per barrel, but perhaps I'm being a bit thick so will welcome correction/explanation. (Is it related to what they actually have an exploitation licence for?) Regarding Etinde FID timing, plenty of warnings in the H1 Report on the 27th March (last time we heard owt, incidentally) eg: P1 "Continued progress on Etinde development options and working with joint venture (“JV”) partners towards agreeing Final Investment Decision (“FID”) in late 2020" and "Ongoing market volatility, caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic and the recent fall in global oil prices could potentially have an adverse effect on the Etinde project timeline" and CEO REview: "We recognise that recent sector volatility has impacted plans for companies in the oil market and across all industries, so whilst we will continue to pursue our ambition of achieving FID in 2020, there is the potential for timing slippage." and "The Operator continues to target Q3 2020 for the integration of these separate work streams followed by project FID. Whilst we, alongside other JV partners continue to target this date, there is potential that some short term slippage may occur, given the complexity of the pre-FID planning process and the need for formal regulatory approval by the Government of Cameroon. In addition, it is reasonable to expect, at this junction, that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to directly and indirectly impact on the FEED delivery timeline over the coming months. We intend to announce necessary updates when appropriate" but, the bit of positivity: "Whilst the Etinde development plan has been inconclusive in the recent past, we are convinced that the likelihood of the successful development of Etinde remains promising in a normal macro environment and the development will commence in the next 12 months" Also worth pointing out that back in March the FEED process was posited as taking between five and eight months starting in April but inevitably in this Covid world of less than ideal working arrangements, the chances of the shorter timescale look remote. Given too, the multiple involvements of the Cameroon government my own money would be FID some time in H1 2021. More important that FID does happen rather than when.

[ham74] 28/7/2020 14:11

Warbaby - where does your information come from? Is it one or more of Bowleven RNS, IR, broker research eg Arden Partners report, your own knowledge of the industry?

[ham74] 28/7/2020 14:05

Warbaby - see below email response from Tullow Oil investor relations: nvestor Relations 13:55 (8 minutes ago) to me Thank you for getting in touch. The cash consideration for the transaction is $500 million at completion and $75 million at final investment decision. The audited year end 2019 2C resource in Uganda was 276mmboe. Therefor if you are to exclude the contingent payments post-first oil the price per barrel is c.$2/bbl Detail on the transaction can be found here: https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8415/8772/2763/Sales_of_Uganda_interest_FINAL.PDF Audited resources can be found here (on slide 19): https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5015/8807/1195/Tullow_Oil_Overview_Presentation_-_April_2020.pdf Kind regards

[warbaby43] 28/7/2020 12:06

"Final Investment Decision (FID) is due this quarter, it could come any day." Simply not so, given that the IE seismic reprocessing report is not due until Q4 and it is highly unlikely that the FEED and FDP will be completed before that time and then following these events there will follow an external audit to produce a reserves figure. Further, once cost and revenue estimates are arrived at, there will need to be a negotiation with SNH to determine whether they are going to take up their 20% of Etinde and on what basis that might be bearing in mind their unpaid share of costs to get thus far. Following all those factors there will inevitably be a period for joint and individual consideration by the JVP partners leading up to FID. Throw in the sub glacial speed at which this industry moves and it will be a minor miracle if it arrives even by Q4. Indeed, Chahin was keen to trail in the H1 Results that the FID timeline could be adversely affected by oil price "volatility" Incidentally, ham74 going back to your post at 18878 and my question at 18890, I would still be most interested in the answer to the P50 question and how the Tullow/Total $2 per barrel was arrived at.

[buy_more] 27/7/2020 19:31

lukoil bought cairns stake in senegal and it looks like they paid appx. usd2/barrel

[manual dexterity] 27/7/2020 15:51

One will be delighted if so.

[ham74] 25/7/2020 22:56

Cameroon needs to expedite the Etinde development to reduce import needs and generate more tax revenue for the Government. Final Investment Decision (FID) is due this quarter, it could come any day.

[warbaby43] 25/7/2020 11:17

A couple of pieces illustrating why Etinde (and the Sonara refinery) might be of some consequence to Cameroon: Https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/2007-10560-cameroon-launches-international-call-for-tenders-to-import-465-000-tons-of-petroleum-products Https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/2407-10573-cameroon-forecasts-2021-oil-revenues-at-xaf303-3-bln-up-by-5-8-yoy And re Sonara refinery: Https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/0106-10372-cameroon-the-reconstruction-of-sonara-will-cost-about-xaf250-billion-the-minee-says

[symbo] 24/7/2020 17:55

Nice to see a 4 on the board!

[boston 004] 21/7/2020 23:59

One hopes so :)

[annual austerity] 21/7/2020 09:49

So next stop 5-6p?

[annual austerity] 18/7/2020 21:22

One seems to believe that one’s 5-6p target will be achieved without news. What is one’s thinking? One’s reading of the chart? Or is one in fact expecting news? This one is genuinely interested in one’s bull case.

[manual dexterity] 18/7/2020 19:27

That 4p broken was indeed a "Manual event." One knows that once it has broken past that barrier we will shoot upwards towards the 5 to 6p mark. One needs patience but not the type to consider it an "Annual event."

[annual austerity] 18/7/2020 17:17

It broke up through 4p earlier this year, very briefly. Maybe that was an Annual Event.

[ham74] 17/7/2020 16:15

Buffet bought a natural gas company this month, must be a good sign.

[manual dexterity] 17/7/2020 15:08

Lets see if we can finally break 4p.

[gark] 12/7/2020 16:26

Wrong chat BLV

[ham74] 12/7/2020 12:19

How on earth is Belvoir group relevant to Bowleven? Are you just attracting more hits to the TOP AIM STOCKS twitter handle?

[ham74] 11/7/2020 19:33

Is this pipeline about exporting from Congo to Cameroon, or from Cameroon to Congo? Or both?

[buy_more] 09/7/2020 23:23

sounds promising to me. quote: In addition, documents on the relations between LUKOIL and the State Oil Company of the Republic of the Congo as well as between TMK (Pipe Metallurgical Company) and the National Petroleum Company of the Congo were signed. The Pipe Metallurgical Company (TMK) is Russia’s leading pipe manufacturer. The project is to build a major oil pipeline, running more than 1,300 km from the port city of Pointe-Noire in the Republic of the Congo to the border with Cameroon. hxxps://thenewdawnliberia.com/putin-talks-covid-19-libya-and-investment-with-sassou-nguesso/