Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[kbrook] 11/6/2020 15:00

The spread is crazy, are they trying to deter any trades? 3.55/4.75

[superbarnet] 11/6/2020 11:44

Bid is on the way up again

[ham74] 11/6/2020 08:51

That seems on the low side. Cash balance of USD 11 million as of mid 2019 was already 2p a share. The $25 million FID would add up to about 5p a share. So 20p would leave only 13p a share for 20% of Etinde - less than half the USD 150 million indicative valuation in the annual report.

[buy_more] 10/6/2020 22:29

if we assume that coc's average share price is appx 13-14p and they are happy with a 50% roi then it could be 20p. we will see

[warbaby43] 10/6/2020 16:31

Nice to dream buy-more, but I wouldn't be popping down to the local newly re-opened Jaguar showroom to order that new car just yet based on any company's internal notional valuation.

In any case, that 290mboe recoverable, was reduced as per the D&M audit to 244mboe and it would be surprising if the JVP failed to engineer SNH's participation, so 20% much more likely than 25%.

I, for one, would be blissfully happy if any sale was based on $2/bbl for 20%'s 48.8mboe

[buy_more] 10/6/2020 14:56

warbaby ..... ??????????????? At $/£ at $1.25, be interesting to see how that 45p (=market cap of $188m) is arrived at, buymore.

hi warbaby, i was referring to 290mboe in total and our share of 25% of it.

anyway, as per the rns from november 29, it sais:

-The valuation has been determined to be within a range, with a mid-point of $150 million, resulting in an impairment provision of $62 million against the Group's carrying value of Etinde.
-Group cash balance at 30 June 2019 of $11 million with no debt. No outstanding work programme commitments.
-Investment of $4 million in publicly traded limited partnership interests and debt.
-Under the Etinde transaction, access to $25 million at FID.

so the calculation was simple: 150M + 25M + appx 10M cash divided by 330M shares

= 0.45

[ham74] 10/6/2020 09:28

Total paid about 2 usd per barrel for Tullows uganda assets. Big oil majors can borrow very cheaply and take a long term view on oil and gas prices.

[warbaby43] 10/6/2020 07:42

??????????????? At $/£ at $1.25, be interesting to see how that 45p (=market cap of $188m) is arrived at, buymore.

My calcs, for BLVN's most likely 20% 48.8mboe, gets it to 29p, not that I think that that much will be achieved in this market and with the financial damage that will have been done to all oilies, large and small, over these past months.

[buy_more] 09/6/2020 21:58

USD2/boe that would be a shareprice of 0.45 incl cash and 25M after fid

[buy_more] 09/6/2020 15:15

that's absolutely correct. now the only and last question we have is: how much will we get for our share. 2usd/boe would be nice

[warbaby43] 09/6/2020 14:17

A bit of a contrast between Marine XII's 1.3 BBbls and Etinde at 244mboe P50, with Lukoil's current 30% stake there (assuming SNH participation) giving them only 73mboe.

However, the purchase of BLVN would raise that 30% 73mboe to a controlling (and probably operatorship) stake of 50% and 122 mboe which might be a bit more like it for them.

[buy_more] 09/6/2020 10:20

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Bets-Big-On-The-Worlds-Least-Explored-Oil-Frontier.html

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 19:57

As a Manual event one has been adding stock to BLVN.

One believes in the takeoff between New Age, Lukoil and Bowleven.

Once FID has been achieved one will see a different company.

One must be vigilant.

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 14:28

As a Manual event one believes Trump has only one card.

And as events go he will play it.

[manual dexterity] 08/6/2020 08:33

As a solid event one can accept those numbers.

One knows the undervaluation here.

[ham74] 06/6/2020 16:53

Are the Edtinde partners, New Age and/or Lukoil the most likely buyers, or do you think a third (or fourth) party could enter the fray?

[symbo1] 06/6/2020 10:07

Any future sale share price should be expected to be at least in the 20’s range.
COC’s average buy in pre div was approx 28p. They have recouped more than half of their investment by issuing the 15p ps divi. Their full exposure is at about 12p per share now, on which they will want a ROI. Although the 15p return seemed like a good idea for most, i for one would have preferred it hadn’t happened. All we have achieved is a lower price level, from which any multiple offer will be lower due to the phsycological expectations and we’ve derisked COC massively. I would have preferred to feel under more pressure when negotiating and pushing hard for best deal. All that’s going to happen now is that they will be looking for a good return which is no doubt seriously lower than any LTH is going to be happy with but will be powerless to influence. It’s a game and we are all being played.

[manual dexterity] 05/6/2020 16:04

As a Manual event the chart looks appetising.

As is the opportunity.

[manual dexterity] 05/6/2020 11:42

As a Manual event 100k is being offered at a premium to asking price -

And Dexterity agrees with the post above.

[manual dexterity] 02/6/2020 09:15

As a manual event blvn should be 2-3 x current share price.

When / if someone decides on a T/O.

[warbaby43] 01/6/2020 10:21

"I thought they had a buyer lined up but clearly not."


While, as per COC's Letter to Shareholders in Feb 2017, a sale of the company remains the most likely eventuality, until it is known what is being bought, 20% or 25% of Etinde, could there be any realistic offer for BLVN until that is resolved, especially given the margin of difference that 5% represents - 49mboe or 61mboe at P50?

As there is plainly a strong JVP desire in the current negotiations with SNH for them to participate (as well as equally strong reasons for the government of Cameroon to take up the JVP offer) it's most likely to be 20%. From the AR:


"SNH would

also be asked to formerly (whoops!) commit to taking

up their 20% share of the licence, which

would require them to commit to providing

their share of the development budget and

their share of currently unpaid back costs.

As part of this process, the JV

partners may reach an agreement

to fund SNH’s share of current and

past development costs under a

commercial financing agreement"


I have long thought a bid from Lukoil, New Age or A N other to be unlikely until post, or at least closer to, FID and with the FEED report, IE seismic reprocessing outcome, FDP and the translation of IM resources to reserves, all due in Q4, that's when there might be more grounds for bid expectations.


Additionally, given how it's constituted, difficult to see how the present Board could properly handle a bid, given one member is a nominee of COC and t'other a direct appointee, and perhaps Chahin should have been quizzed on this in one of the Conference Calls:





Perhaps, therefore, between now and Q4 a Board change RNS can be expected, which just might, of itself, indicate that summat's afoot.

[manual dexterity] 01/6/2020 08:46

As a Manual event we could be looking like a recovery for Bowleven.

Some good posts above and we could double or more from these levels.

There are some "Manual" bargains in this market.

[manual dexterity] 29/5/2020 08:45

As a Manual event Bowleven should be taken over at, at least twice the share price.

If it happens it will be a Manual Event.

[tomboyb] 27/5/2020 16:01

At a time of considerable market turbulence, we are fortunate to benefit from a robust financial position, with in excess of $10 million of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Coupled with our low cost base, we are well funded to reach FID, after which we will receive $25 million from the JV partners

As per last interims -

Cash Last interims inc investments $13 million. If they can receive the $25million once the FID has been reached then you can see is potentially undervalued at the current share price -