Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 28/3/2018 16:57

Dont rely on others jordaggy! DYOR is an axiom of investing.

Suffice to say, those condensate tankers are going to be VV busy.

[jordaggy] 28/3/2018 09:02

GoM, get ya bloody finger out! We need that info pronto.

[gunsofmarscapone] 27/3/2018 19:31

Standby for figures, I didnt upgrade goodreader #3 on old ipad. Lost ipad then found that it is not possible to migrate pdf’s due now 64 bit programme. Will have to go through a tedious process to recover everything. All my cameroon info was on it along with the rest of the globe.

Cant stand IT stuff, absolutely hate it and have never produced a boring powerpoint or pdf in my life and I never will.

[warbaby43] 27/3/2018 16:42

Guns, "as a consequence of the huge condensate flows already booked with yet more to come" - if gas stands at c 1 tcf at present pre IM-6, around what is the total bcpd figure?

[gunsofmarscapone] 27/3/2018 14:17

If they are purely business professionals then there is every chance that the company will evolve into a de facto royalty vehicle.

Yes of course a buy out is more likely and as a consequence of the huge condensate flows already booked with yet more to come then I am targeting at least £1:20 for my now growing holdings here. Even unloading a small tranche of profitable Matc and Bor shares to increase here. The aim is to create a “full cycle” portfolio in this asset class and to trounce the fund managers at their own sport.

Yes I am probably deluded but we will see!

[hot_topic] 27/3/2018 11:57

In his interview Chahin mentions FID being either the end of this year or early next so looks like they could have a plan to stay in for that.

[iamthedogman] 27/3/2018 11:55

Guns.......

You will not see dividends with COC, they are not oil men, they are in for a turn and will then move on to new pastures
AIMHO

[gunsofmarscapone] 27/3/2018 10:50

Agree with that, it would be far far better to continue through to development. I can actually and almost unbelievably after the Kev years see a long term return in the form of dividends here.

[buy_more] 27/3/2018 08:54

i guess it‘s still too early to talk about a real sales price. 50p would mean the company will be sold for +/- GBP170M which doesn‘t sound enough for me

[uggy100] 26/3/2018 21:41

cyan

I agree with 50p but maybe a tad more depending on how much is proved up by the appraisal drills (not the same as exploration drills for sure) COC may or may not crystalise their asset ahead of the drills but I doubt they will. If the drills go to plan then BLVN is worth a lot more & I think they are happy enough with the risk reward. Time will tell.

[cyan] 26/3/2018 13:36

I think there is a lot of optimism that the drills will prove up another 1 to 2 TCF, and hence increase value for the sale by COC which, imo, is all they are intent on.

50p likely imo.

[hot_topic] 26/3/2018 11:27

My own thoughts on the situation is that if COC thought the outcome of the drill would not be positive they would not have increased their holding - in fact they would have been a net seller. I also suspect they are looking for a far higher return than they would by selling out at 50p. Only my opinion DYOR

[hot_topic] 26/3/2018 10:56

All sounds very positive. If the drills are successful I can see this going far north of where we are today. Good luck to all holders.

[gunsofmarscapone] 23/3/2018 15:40

Sorry, I wrote ‘doesn’t ‘ rather than doesn’t it auger well.

hxxps://www.lngworldnews.com/flng-hilli-episeyo-starts-production-offshore-cameroon/

FLOATING LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION HAS STARTED OFFSHORE CAMEROON!!!

Why on earth would CoC avoid free appraisal wells leading to bonus on FID? That is barking and to do so would mean a total renegotiation of the Farm Out.

[benjimun] 23/3/2018 12:39

'speculate on drilling risk' - this is the thing, I dont see the risk, if there is no upside in terms of volumes then they are whey they are at present. They will have had all the tech advice from CTO prior to him leaving, if they thought that Etinde might have a problem and be technically/econimcally not viable they would not have gotten involved.
If there was a significant risk I think they would have sold by now and walked away with 75%+ profit. I see this as COC knowing the odds are in their favour and playing them acordingly.

[bena1] 23/3/2018 11:50

I'm sure LUK/NA are keen to have this, but they will be pushing them hard on price and running a game of brinkmanship, there's always a chance that at the last minute a 3rd party might come along with a winning bid.

Look, I'm not claiming to know anything, but I do work in Banking and I know that no Finance house I have worked for would want to speculate on drilling risk, these guys might be different and have balls of steel, but I think they would see a 30m payday as a good result for two years....

[benjimun] 23/3/2018 10:20

So why have they not sold it already, why wait till they agree appraisal drilling, makes no sense to me. They see a risk free upside with the a minimal downside risk , with the share price as is, if they do sell prior to drilling it will be because LUK/NA know they are on to a winner and are prepared to meet COC asking price.

[bena1] 23/3/2018 09:56

COC are bankers, not O&G explorers, they have about £30m invested here, they will be happy with a 100% profit on that and to move on. They will not want to watch it swing about, make 400% profit as the drill bit turns, but not be able to get out as the market's not liquid enough and then see disappointing results and see the shareprice crash back down to 30p.

I don't know what the source of their funds is, but punting millions on the drill bit is what got BLVN where it is now, COC are not in that game.

[benjimun] 22/3/2018 19:47

What is the logic on COC not taking the drill risk, unless LUK/NA will rebate them the cost of the associated costs/FID etc into any offer price. If you were COC you would weigh upside v downside I think the downside is sig outweighed by potential upside. I would expect COC to wait until drilling starts at least, I dont think that these appraisals are going flag anything to reduce the value of etinde, only enhance it.

[bena1] 22/3/2018 19:22

I went to a couple of the PI meetings, sold out after COC took over as I reasoned it would be dead money for a year or so. Back in now and accumulating as I don't think COC want to take the drill risk.

[gunsofmarscapone] 22/3/2018 13:14

Its incredible really, how many PI’s populating the notorious private meetings have survived (and accumulated) here?

Doesn’t auger well for us that Africa’s VERY first FLNG unit is now producing LNG in Cameroon, with more to follow. No rush but over the next week or two I’ll have an attempt to value an indicative ‘virtual’; production platform; in terms of the gas to condensate ratio, flow rates etc and infer an Npv10 from estimated volumetrics with a term applied for the taxation environment.

[yasrub] 22/3/2018 09:11

I think what is key is that BLVN now sit from a position of strength - cash has been preserved, two appraisals on Etinde will take place Jun-Aug with Etinde already commercial - that activity covered with strong credible partners in New Age and Lukoil. COC stated they wanted to realise value in Etinde without going on wild goose chases with the cash no reason to believe otherwise.

[fft] 22/3/2018 08:58

I agree. If it isn't the end game, then the take out price will be higher than I was expecting. The higher than usual volume and constant price increase indicates no one really interested in selling even with a 20% plus rise this year.