Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 08:23:17

horneblower

I think its is down to a "safety play" ...targeting first the ones who can bring in some cash on a regular basis ..first ... and with Pros who are less likely to need much support ongoing

[salmon9] 08/3/2024 08:20:10

Horneblower
In Ian's Zak interview he said that the Freemium is basic, but if you want to store anything then you will have to upgrade to a subscription. That suggests to me that Freemium is only of short term interest so people can try out how it feels and performs, a bit like a test drive when you buy a new car. You can't go anywhere useful in the car unless you buy it!

[horneblower] 08/3/2024 08:12:20

My concern is still that they are concentrating on the upper end of the user base where there are far fewer potential clients.

Allenby's £30 average seems high to me. It might be the average price paid by a subscriber but for every client paying £60 or more there will be 500 paying £30 and 5,000 paying nothing.

That means the average is more like £10 per registered client.

That shouldn't be a problem for two reasons...firstly, the potential market is vast, secondly, because it's the cloud, handling huge numbers should not be expensive.

Being cloud-native means being able to handle huge numbers of clients...so why only go for the top end?

Modern business practice means that success comes with numbers. You've got to go for the numbers.

[jj_1237] 08/3/2024 08:06:39

>>I don't know how easy it is to use Adobe or Avid but I bet it is much harder than using elevate.io

in this interview from yesterday with Zak Mir

hxxps://zakstraderscafe.com/interview-ian-mcdonough-ceo-blackbird-2/8892/

IM says he spoke to an expert who said it would take half a day to teach someone new to use Elevate.io versus months with traditional software!

if true, that is surely game changing.

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 08:03:26

"SBS confirmed that the margin that they will make on elevate.io is in the 90%s."

this is very good as a gross profit margin ...but the important thing is the Operating cost margin as that includes the labour/admin/marketing costs incurred in Elevate

what I do like is IM saying that they will take an "agile development" approach to Elevate based on learning from the Community and market and as such refine and expand the product based on needs .... which supports a focused and disciplined view on expenditure ( Sumit influencing that I suspect)

[chriscallen] 08/3/2024 07:50:51

During the presentation SBS confirmed that the margin that they will make on elevate.io is in the 90%s. So if they phase payments to those who make introductions, which is not unreasonable if they don't want to end up paying the full amount for a user who only stays for say 3 months, they do not need to raise cash at all.

Allenby used £23 in their original financial model but in the update published this week that has been revised to £36, which is evidence that whoever was feeding them the figures now believes that customers will pay more.

Any business that is in the same market will be worried by the entry of elevate.io because it may well pose an existential threat to that portion of their customer base that elevate.io is targeting e.g. YouTube in 2023 apparently had some 15M video creators and they cannot be an isolated example. I don't know how easy it is to use Adobe or Avid but I bet it is much harder than using elevate.io and is not as versatile and responsive. Where users have a problem BIRDs Henry Morgan was reputedly aiming to give a sameday solution and presumably that will apply to the new venture too.

[salmon9] 08/3/2024 07:48:19

Nick2412
Thank you for the excellent post.
I remember reading the article that you have pointed to, and how good it felt to see Blackbird as a possible future $1 billion takeover target!
Very interesting times are ahead!

[pokerchips2] 08/3/2024 06:50:12

" does mean that even with a mere £10m revenue (circa 30,000 subscribers at an average monthly payment of £30 as per Allenby's research)

hitting 30k subscribers with a very focused and targeted approach seems very doable , fairly quickly, within a market the size of , say, the US

[nick2412] 08/3/2024 00:24:30

A fascinating article from 2021 cited that BIRD was a potential target for Adobe. That was a bit premature as the M&E market has declined and Adobe would have known that was the likely trend, elevate launch, however, brings that takeover prospect to the forefront again. NickB has astutely picked up on this - once or twice I believe! My only slightly different perspective is that if Adobe don't strike immediately it doesn't prevent elevate from being a multi-bagger success albeit over a longer bumpier journey. I also think Adobe isn't the only potential acquirer.

It's possible to argue that given Adobe didn't follow the logic of the article below why would they now? I am sure Adobe would have been smart enough to know that the £700m M&E sector was on the decline and, of course, video tools is now the multi-billion market and set for explosive growth. Step forward product ready elevate.

In answer to my question about the staggering revenue multiples being paid by acquirers for products/technologies in the video tools sector, Sumit highlighted another company with an even higher multiple. I'll have to listen again to get the name. It does mean that even with a mere £10m revenue (circa 30,000 subscribers at an average monthly payment of £30 as per Allenby's research) that would produce an acquisition price of around £500m. That would be £2 a share or perhaps a bit less allowing for one more funding (say £10m at 30p) to achieve the subscriber numbers.

I accept the argument of 'why would the big players wait' for elevate's early revenues? Agreed, they may well pounce immediately but waiting a bit is just what big corporations do more often than not. Also, there will be a lot more added to elevate going forward although accepted Adobe could add that and accelerate after the acquisition. Let's agree to differ on that. I do think Ian and Sumit are setting elevate up with a 'come and get us at the right price' thinking.

I also can see that £500m and 50 x revenues offer might either be rejected for a top-end technology starting hockey stick style SaaS growth in a video tools sector that is set for explosive growth. But rejecting is not without risks either in such a dynamic sector. £2 a share with IM's 28m shares and SS's circa 68m shares. Well, we know from the investor meeting they have had 'conversations' with each other on this.

[nick2412] 07/3/2024 23:50:26

I can see Blackbird becoming a high-volume retail investor's favourite stock. More so as the chance to get into an early Canva style story gets more widely known - which it will after elevate has its general release. It's a positive as liquidity is a good thing even though the quality of the thread may well decline.

[cyberbub] 07/3/2024 22:18:10

Cabi yes the 750k seems to have taken out the 6p offer, but where is the corresponding sell? By my reckoning there must be a 2M sell just below 6p waiting to be printed.

[richard107] 07/3/2024 21:32:20

Nonsense . If an institution knew about a pending share issue and sold or bought shares , it would be insider trading . I know as I frequently had to sign an agreement not to deal in the shares before the announcement when I worked in the industry . By the way , charts are a total waste of time I’m a very illiquid share such as thus

[lovebird7869] 07/3/2024 21:10:47

What does your chart says SSB? When will we see double digits? tired waiting!!! Getting excited for long wait launch 🚀 hopefully in coming weeks! Double digit I mean by £37😊😊;😊 not accepting pennies after 9 years of long wait 🤞🤞🤞

[horneblower] 07/3/2024 20:16:45

Funds inevitably know about rights issues weeks before they happen.
It is normal practice for them to sell down before taking up a rights issue...and often, to offload some more, immediately after receiving their entitlement.

[sideshowbull] 07/3/2024 20:13:53

Friday tomorrow, always an interesting day.

BWTFDIK

[johnveals] 07/3/2024 20:00:46

What has a few redemptions from a few open ended investment companies during difficult market conditions got to do with the future of BIRD?

I despair at the naivety of some ‘investorsR17;.

[sideshowbull] 07/3/2024 19:49:00

We have 31 upticks in header, amazing as 1 month ago we had 4!

Don't like it however too invested to argue.

Something is cooking.

I am in.

BWTFDIK