Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 05/3/2024 13:28

Pokerchips that's useful to know, but if the company are forced into lossmaking positions by these custom integrations then how did they ever expect to become profitable?

[chriscallen] 05/3/2024 12:58

The only customers of which we know for the original M&E product are large corporate users. There are many fewer of them and shifting to using a new product has costs as well as advantages. Those advantages have to be clear to those who make the decisions and it helps if there is a substantial cost saving e.g. journalists editing their own video. So it's an up hill slog.
By contrast elevate.io offers a low cost entry and even at the top end it's petty cash for any established video creator. If the expectations they are building are met the big issue will be handling the admin but Rai and Volans will know all about that and the means of dealing with it. Having a large number of users does mean that a loss like A&E cannot occur though an ability to deliver at all times what was promised is paramount for retention.
By now the BIRD team must have a very good idea of what is achievable in the short term. Provided costs are controlled by matching acquisition payments to introducers against actual income very fast growth can be achieved without creating a cashflow crisis. We are living in interesting times.

[nickb] 05/3/2024 12:55

‘The only possible reason is that there must be other competitors driving the price down to unprofitable levels’

Actually no, M&E is dominated by one editing supplier

AVID

Perhaps 90% of the pro editing market in M&E

Second reason is Cloud working is still very niche.

Best go after the bigger market that is more open but it’s required a lot of technical progress to make this happen.

[hyperal] 05/3/2024 12:40

The BIRD chart back to 2000, hopefully it will end as it started. 🙂

[pokerchips2] 05/3/2024 12:37

Governance :

"going forward we will seek annual re-election to the board for all directors and putting director's remuneration to an advisory vote "

[pokerchips2] 05/3/2024 12:36

" And yet we have never been able to make a profit on it "

one thing ...They indicate that their major accounts often have required bespoke integrations which are both time consuming and costly, which sounds like hits into the margin and adds to the Operating costs

[cyberbub] 05/3/2024 12:13

I can't post on the Guild thread despite being a member, however in response to a poster there, I agree. We have a patented and technically outstanding product used by multiple high profile media, sporting and political clients and at multiple high profile 'live' events, demanding high integrity and reliability... And yet we have never been able to make a profit on it...! The only possible reason is that there must be other competitors driving the price down to unprofitable levels, given the negative gearing for a small company?

[mcsean2164] 05/3/2024 11:59

I think this says it all.

IM has said they are initially targeting ...

1. Pro Teams within a Corporate Environment
2. Monetised Creators
3. High End You Tubers
4. Podcasters

Particularly 3, they should be targeting teensgers in their bedrooms that want to be creators. High end, the royal family, etc. these values are not open innovation tech world values. Looks doomed to failure by dinosaurs.

Hope I'm wrong.

[chriscallen] 05/3/2024 11:31

Investor Meet Company site:
"This meeting is not asking for pre-submitted questions. There may be the opportunity to ask questions whilst attending the live presentation."

[leighford] 05/3/2024 11:28

Good opportunity to add at same or similar level to the HNWI.

[chriscallen] 05/3/2024 11:22

It's worth noting that the Allenby Model is now assuming a 3 year life (previously 2) for customers and the average monthly subsription is £36 up from £23. The Player does not appear to be priced in:
"In addition to customers acquired through (paid) customer acquisition methods, others
come to the product “organically” through word of mouth or some other non-attributable
route, or “virally”; (through a recommendation or referral link) from an existing customer relationship. These organic and viral routes materially add to the customer numbers in successful models, reducing the effective cost of customer acquisition, and helping drive the success of the platform as Canva, Figma and many others have shown.
As well as the subscription revenue, elevate.io will have the opportunity to generate
revenue from other means; such as content distribution through use of its Player or
through taking a cut of services sold through the planned marketplace".

[leighford] 05/3/2024 11:14

All to play for
If elevate succeeds could be looking at a 100 bagger here
Settle for x 10
Assuming the product is top notch, all down to if they can get some traction with their limited budget.

[kcowe] 05/3/2024 11:03

Reads well.

[kcowe] 05/3/2024 10:35

probably buys after that 200k sell at 5.8

[spoonmuff] 05/3/2024 10:31

The spread is so tight I can’t work out what are buys and what are sells at the moment. Was 6.0 and 5.8 but no idea what those 5.87’s are

[nick2412] 05/3/2024 10:10

Cyber, I think it is just under £7m cash held not £6m as the placing stated they had £5.9m before the net £1m raised. That gives a decent runway for elevate and they have also implied that further cost-cutting for enterprise is an option. The commentary on elevate are, as would be expected, very bullish. I am keen to get a handle on when the player will be integrated into the package and have asked quite a few questions on this topic for tomorrow.

[hyperal] 05/3/2024 09:46

You won't see me selling any shares before the launch of elevate.io . Why a few others are selling, I don't have a clue, at these levels they must be selling at a loss.

[chriscallen] 05/3/2024 09:46

It's always sensible to ask the question "How will potential competitors respond when the product is launched?" The fact that it uses BIRDs existing, proven Cloud technology is a big barrier for look alikes.

But one alternative that might make sense for large competitors is a white label service or if elevate.io really takes off a badged product. The price to their customer would have to be that set by BIRD but given the potential volume BIRD could provide a large user with a discount like the introductory fee for influencers.

If in fact they already had that in hand it would give them confidence about the share price in the near term.

[purchaseatthetop] 05/3/2024 09:27

Interesting double bluff played by the BoD….

Pretend it is high net worth individuals buying at a discount rate. Get howls of PI anger.
Actually there are no such HNW persons and actually the shares were sold into the recent rise.
They know that the figures will be terrible and the share will suffer.
Now they have PIs thinking the new HNW investors are good news and the company has an extra 1m

[clocktower] 05/3/2024 09:18

Direct to customer model is the one likely to succeed, as one then is not dependent on toe sucking to larger clients, and at the same time undermining their grip on the market.

Decent sub coming in month after month, then there will be those that upgrade over time for new features etc.

X lost their advertising clients, and turned to blue tick but we are yet to find out how this has left them bottom line. Here however there is so little needed to turn the tables that it should skyrocket.

[muffster] 05/3/2024 09:15

Bird Only Fans video creator disappoints again..can just see the headline

[cyberbub] 05/3/2024 09:14

They won't all be captured by Elevate or become paying users. But 2-3% of those 15M becoming paying users, and Bird shareholders will be very very happy ...