Blackbird Share Discussion Threads

[chriscallen] 07/3/2024 09:45

Just to put things in context 30,000 active users on the model published and updated recently by Allenby implies earnings per share of better than 2p. Even allowing for losses on the M&E product it implies a significant rise on the current share price

The biggest unknown is, given its technological edge and apparently favourable reception by those who have used it(the reference to groups of users by SR was interesting in this context), how quickly can it make inroads into the potential users? SR mentioned benefits for users referring their own contacts so the take up may be much quicker than past launches achieved.

So what is a realistic target for the number of paying users by 31/12/2024?

[nickb] 07/3/2024 09:41

Spoon
If say it takes 3-5 years for us to build a billion dollar business what do the major players do in the mean time when they need this yesterday?

I can’t see them watching and waiting all those years!

[shortsqueezer] 07/3/2024 09:40

Bloody hell we've ticked up. Lol

[spoonmuff] 07/3/2024 09:17

P2 I agree, I don’t think there will be plans for break even any time soon, all money made will be used to scale the company bigger for a long long time. The valuation will come from turnover not profit. I do think their end game will be to sell but not until they have the company valued at over £1bn

[nickb] 07/3/2024 09:09

‘If its so great why wouldn't competitors build a similar product?’

VERY difficult to build a competitive product that can scale and is not a toy.

[cabi1] 07/3/2024 09:04

Anyway after listening to Sumit, if I was a newbie to BIRD I would happily load up at current levels.

It’s like being an early investor of Figma and Canva.

If we were a U.S company they could easily raise more money, than our current valuation.

Still all to play for.

HB how’s your chart looking?

[pokerchips2] 07/3/2024 09:03

breaking even....but...sounds like they will keep investing into the platform.... to further grow it ....so... may well keep it loss making to promote growth and add the features still on the list

[horneblower] 07/3/2024 08:45

Baring in mind that each paying user will need to "carry" a freebie user who's costs are similar...so I reckon you need perhaps 70% more total users than paying users.

[cyberbub] 07/3/2024 08:30

30-40,000 paid users and growing fast IMOOr else 200,000 total 'active' users including Freemium and growing fastAlso a finger in the air... We need 20-25,000 or so paid users to break even.

[horneblower] 07/3/2024 08:23

I hardly dare ask the question but, at £30/month, how many registered users will they need to turn a profit, or at least, appear attractive to a suiter?

My guess is 100,000 but that's just a finger in the air.

[mcsean2164] 07/3/2024 08:03

amt,

Here's one.

[salmon9] 07/3/2024 07:57

Excellent posts NickB, Nick 2412, Pockerchips.

I was very impressed with Sumit's very clear sense of direction on this, based on his past successful experience in the same marketplace.
Clarity, attention to detail, focus, patient determination, calculation all feel like relevant words for Sumit's approach.

[shortsqueezer] 07/3/2024 07:48

I think most of the essential codec is covered by patents.

[amt] 07/3/2024 07:39

If its so great why wouldn't competitors build a similar product?

[pokerchips2] 07/3/2024 07:00

NickB, Nick2412

good posts...

I begin to think the £1m fund raise is to assist with the downturn in Enterprise given that they aren't looking at a marketing blitz spend initially for Elevate, largely affiliates and influencers ...

I like the fact that Elevate is a generic product that anyone can use,for whatever purpose (within T&C)...looks like financial markets could see a good use for it... and I do think the plug-in area will be a great addition

I also liked when SS said that he thought none of the competitors were looking to build a similar product and that Public Cloud does now make BIRD more appealing to the bigger player companies

[nick2412] 07/3/2024 03:28

Very good Q&A with IM on The Hive (Telegram) highlighting how they will create a community and the conditions for it to go viral with minimal marketing spend. Margins will be higher than competitors and the cost per acquisition will be lower. The collaborative element is a big factor helping it go viral.

It seems they have found a significant space that isn’t catered for. Who wouldn’t have wished to invest in an early stage Canva and enjoyed the massive returns. There is a strong chance elevate can replicate that journey. The journey might be interrupted by an acquirer or only partially as successful but either way it strikes me as a great risk/reward play.

I think it was Sumit who confirmed America and Asia (where I am at present) will be major markets.

[nickb] 07/3/2024 01:10

More porn on VHS another possible reason for winning!

Betamax became a professional format that all the broadcasters (well maybe less so the BBC who backed the wrong format) and they cost the price of a luxury car

Build a video editing solution and it quickly became the price of a luxury housing estate!

Now amazingly you can do all that video editing in a web browser and soon be able to collaborate across the globe for £30 per month 😀

[cyberbub] 06/3/2024 23:45

Just watched the IMC video, really really good!

Yes, obviously the existing Blackbird product is struggling. But that's clearly irrelevant now... it's sh*t or bust... Blackbird is dead, long live Elevate!

From the Q&A session I'm strongly convinced that the company has a very clear and yet realistic and 'grounded' plan to imminently start pushing Elevate into a market that's desperate for it... and that we have something which will be far superior to any competitor.

Of course everyone remembers that Betamax was technically superior and yet lost to VHS because it was harder to use, more expensive, and JVC spent a load more on marketing. There is absolutely no 100% guarantee of success with Elevate. But I feel more confident than ever that we have the best possible chance of success!

In the very worst case scenario, if the patented product is excellent and well-received by customers, but we don't quite have the funds to build exponential traction, someone will definitely come in and buy us out for 5-10x today's valuation, IMO - it would still be small beer for a major.

NAI DYOR etc

[nickb] 06/3/2024 21:50

We should be celebrating the pivot away from enterprise from a business perspective.

Enterprise for me has always been about having an environment to push the performance of Blackbirds technology the analogy of F1 motor technology and expertise finding its way to the mass market later.

M&E is in major recession
In the U.K. a whopping 70% of pro freelancers (BECTU union) are out of work my understanding it’s also bad in the USA plus they have had a devastating industrial strike.

Job losses all over the place including equipment suppliers.

No appetite in M£E I suspect for investing in new ways of doing things, and of course AI threats to the industry are dominating mindsets.

Long term it will play into our world and you will find elevate pushing up into the pro media business as they push down into the creator economy.

Traditional media is a dying dinosaur outside of high end productions

We are on the correct side of the line while others in the M&E vendor space cannot pivot out like us but we have to navigate the reduced £’s from enterprise which is a shame.

Sumit is building the platform I have always wanted blackbird to do and I’m genuinely excited for it for creators.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if elevate doesn’t have a positive effect on enterprise sales as big media companies do have a demand for an elevate product as they have to reach eyeballs that are on Social platforms and they won’t want to use an Avid for that.
That’s all long term of course

Personally I say we will be bought out by a large player but that’s just me!

The Bullish case has never been stronger imho


Looking forward to testing and using elevate in a week or two.

[jj_1237] 06/3/2024 20:28

i think enterprise is dead ... but for a different reason... if elevate is so good, it will punch upwards and end up being used at a high end pro level anyway. ... why sign a multi year license when you can use the software as needed on a monthly basis.
there will be plugins/addons that connect elevate to all pro feeds === game over for big tech in our niche.

[pokerchips2] 06/3/2024 19:34

Enterprise concerns me, sounds like they feel it is at a dead end with no where else to go