BG Group Share Discussion Threads

[bolador] 10/11/2012 16:46

Bear Man,

Well you can be as short as your broker allows. You seem very certain of your views and I can only assume that you are well short at over thirteen pounds a share. If not you have arrived at the scene a little late, after all taking a sop value of sixteen pounds a share and knocking off thirty five per cent gives the current share price Quite a margin of comfort even if the ride is rough for a while.
BG has lost its premium rating that's all, there must be better shorts out there.

I agree target prices are usually nonsense but pricing energy assets for nav calculations is not like pricing say bank assets which are mostly opinion now that the FASB has given up.On the other hand oil and gas prices are quoted every minute of the day world wide. As to risk when was the oil business an easy ride ?

No, being short here is just an odd risk/reward assessment.

[the bear man] 10/11/2012 11:05

just remember, these NAVs and TPs were set by brokers which were apparently aware of some of the problems according to the company. and the australian LNG disposal was at a low proce. so how can you believe any of this nonsense?

[the bear man] 10/11/2012 11:02

i dont believe any of this takeover rubbish, which appears driven by vested parties to rescue the share price. a takeover would be extremely risky and if the company does remain cash flow negative next year, which looks likely, it could be under a lot of pressure to make more disposals.

[philanderer] 10/11/2012 08:52

'City spinners' at it already ;-)

"....Gas giant BG Group has been the subject of takeover talk since its shares crashed 20 per cent after it issued a shock warning on future production. It has hired bankers to advise on how to protect itself from any hostile approaches. City traders, who think its production warning was a wobble, not crisis, rumour a bid could still emerge. Its shares hissed up 13p to 1,057p."

[philanderer] 09/11/2012 23:23

Telegraph city diary :-)

BG Group seeks good advice

End of an era at BG Group, after the FTSE 100 firm spooked the market on Hallowe'en with a profit warning that sent its shares crashing 20pc.
Diary hears the energy group is looking to part ways with its external PR adviser Maitland, following the fumbled handling of the Q3 results.
Time for City spinners up for the challenge of managing the takeover talk surrounding the business, next year's exit of chief executive Sir Frank Chapman and the ongoing freefall of the BG Group share price to dust down their CVs.

[philanderer] 09/11/2012 19:57

Back from a nice break in the sunshine..... still grim on the markets :-S

[mark10101] 09/11/2012 14:23

Few shares with this little downside but big upside. I will be accumulating all the way down to £6 ;-)

I am hoping to make a short term profit, but happy for this to fall into the definition of a long term investment "being a short term investment gone wrong"!

[bolador] 09/11/2012 13:52

chutes01

You might well be right about the management.Bearing in mind the quality of the E&P portfolio I cannot believe that this will be allowed to wither on the vine through mismanagement. Just as Enterprise Oil was taken over after tripping so I believe BG will not be long on its own with companies like Exxon actively expanding their gas properties. These are hard times but Big Oil is never short of cash to pick up a bargain.

[chutes01] 09/11/2012 13:36

After attending a workshop for BG recruitment I'm aware of the type of people they have working for them, no real substance and it ultimately leads to under performance, then there's Chris Finlayson, I remember meeting him once, Hmmm.
Still taking a position now after the recent rebalancing.

[bolador] 09/11/2012 13:22

Tweeek,

Ah, so now we have gone from shorting a catastrophe to suggesting buyers wait until the shares drop 60p and thus below ten pounds.

Thing is the market knows about the problems thats why the shares fell.
You will need to do better than allude darkly to problems that others cannot know unless they do their own research. You are making the bear case !

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs have the sop at GBP1610.

[tweeeek] 09/11/2012 13:04

Admitting it won't grow next year, following a string of delays on several projects worldwide.

BG Group's growth plans have been hit by the shutdown of the Elgin rig in the North Sea earlier this year, following a leak.

It has been forced to postpone production at another North Sea field, Jasmine, until late 2013.

I can list so many others why you should wait for this to drop sub £10 before accumulating any, and no I am not going to list all the other problems go do your own research.

[bolador] 09/11/2012 12:57

Tweeek

Believe every word you say but no big bargains reported today so far, but then volume is only 3.4mill not enough for a toughie to short into is it ?

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs put the some of the parts valuation at 1610pps post latest figures.

[mark10101] 09/11/2012 12:32

I just can't see how it is a catastrophe when compared to recent events?

Can you elaborate? I am not heavily invested yet but may increase holding if we get a lower entry point. I just don't seemed to have grasped the magnitude of the announcement yet..

[tweeeek] 09/11/2012 12:07

Thanks bolador as many as I can get, and yes mark I think what has transpired is a catastrophe and it will only get worse, the odd bounce up is just guff.

[bolador] 09/11/2012 11:57

Tweeek,

How many do you want to short to the market ?

[mark10101] 09/11/2012 11:19

The greatest financial crisis in history took this down to £8 region briefly, was what they announced last week really that bad?

Oil was at $35/barrel during that time, I think oil can fall a long way from here but with $5trillion global printing it may put a floor under things.

I was a buyer at £10.78 on the day of the fall and I am hoping further falls will allow me to average in lower.

[tweeeek] 09/11/2012 10:45

Still a good opportunity to short, £10 then £8 and £6.50 just give it time. A couple more profit warnings should be expected too much damage has been done.

[bolador] 09/11/2012 09:50

I certainly believe ten per cent either side. But I do not think we will have long to worry about it. Exxon will probably have this quickly.
Not to different to Enterprise Oil, trip for a minute and quality is offered cheap and gone. Buying energy in the market at times like this is so much easier than exploring. All done round the lunch table !

[the bear man] 09/11/2012 09:26

do you really believe that though? these assets are hard to sell, look at the australian LNG sale. and recent brazilian sales

[bolador] 09/11/2012 09:14

Valuation of BG by Goldman S

E&P ..... $82b
Downstream $22b

This works out at 1610 pps they say.

[bolador] 09/11/2012 08:49

Bear Man,

SOP 1630/1750.

at 650 I expect a few chums in the pub could raise the money to take it over !

[the bear man] 08/11/2012 23:45

how low could these go?

[elmfield] 08/11/2012 18:33

As ever timing will be the key.