BG Group Share Discussion Threads

[flyingbull] 28/12/2012 17:14

Fancy a challenge and put your skills to the test!? Here are the
oil stock competitions that sort out the boys/girls from the men/women! ;-) :-)

Best regards and Happy & Exciting New Year.....

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[arja] 21/12/2012 15:51

Philanderer ,
Your RRS looking better today and chart suggests that the gold price bottomed at 1635 which it hit twicen in recent days - good luck with it and I might look to trade it again soon !

[arja] 21/12/2012 09:24

so this is what a santa clause rally is - a real bloodbath today and Bg has reached the £10 support level quicker than we expected .

[philanderer] 21/12/2012 09:14

Sub 1000p and that`ll do it for me for this year.

Off to sunnier climes then back to Amsterdam for the holidays.

Happy christmas everyone. Back in the New Year.

[miata] 20/12/2012 12:22

From the note just out by Fred Lucas at JP Morgan Cazenove:

If Repsol sells its LNG business, it will be the first major LNG business sale for many years. The read through for BG Group is especially relevant given the shared ownership of Atlantic LNG (BG average interest 30%) and the importance of the LNG stream to BG Group (> 33% 2012E EBIT).

Although Repsol's LNG portfolio is fully invested (2012E-16E capex is just €0.2bn) and thus has a very attractive free cash flow profile, we believe that BG Group's LNG portfolio should command a multiple premium to Repsol's because (i) Growth - BG Group's portfolio is growing e.g. via QC LNG and Tanzania LNG; Repsol's portfolio has no identifiable growth and 2012 represents peak earnings (ii) Scale - BG Group's portfolio is almost 3x the scale of Repsol's e.g. Repsol LNG 2012E adjusted EBITDA $1.2bn versus BG Group's EBITDA $3.2bn (NB the profitability of BG Group's business in 2012 is suppressed by out-of-the-money hedging) (iii) Control – BG Group operates Atlantic and Egypt LNG; Repsol only controls the Canaport terminal. (iv) Diversion capability – although Repsol has some cargo diversion capability, BG Group is the market leader (v) Dual basin facing – once QC LNG is operational (2014), both portfolios will have efficient supply capabilities to both the Atlantic Basin and Asia Pacific.

What the sales price could tell us about the value of BG Group's
LNG franchise – In the table below, we show an equity value sensitivity
for Repsol's LNG business. We confess that these kinds of businesses are
tricky for us to value without detailed information on the LNG supply
agreements (pricing and margin). Our NAV for BG Group's LNG
business is $19.4bn or 350 pence per share – this equates to a 2012E
EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x. If Repsol sells its LNG business for an
equity value of €1.5bn the implied EV is €5.5bn and implied
EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.4x - this is 4% higher than our NAV valuation
of BG Group's LNG business. If Repsol sells its LNG business for an
equity value of €2.5bn, this would imply a 2012 EV/EBITDA multiple of
7.5x which is 22% above BG Group's LNG NAV implied multiple.

As we have reasoned, we believe that BG Group's LNG business merits a
higher multiple. Furthermore, BG Group trades at a 40% discount to our
NAV of £17. So, we feel that this transaction (if it occurs) could be a
positive trigger for BG Group and provide the market with a salient and
poignant reminder of the value that is absent BG Group's share price.

We remain OVERWEIGHT BG Group.

[philanderer] 20/12/2012 12:20

FT Alphaville just now......... comment from Fred Lucas , who from memory is an analyst at JP Morgan..


some people talking about BG

BG Group PLC (BG.:LSE): Last: 1,012, down 11 (-1.08%), High: 1,040, Low: 1,011, Volume: 2.65m

NH
bid rumour not working for the stale bulls

BE
Gradual dawning realisation that they're overvalued perhaps?

NH
yeah

NH
their Aussie projects may struggle to meet cost of capital

NH
and they seem

NH
to need cash

NH
for all their capex plan

BE
Yup.

BE
Brazil looks useful but against that you have Oz (no one wants more LNG in Oz) and Egypt (which is a hospital pass).

NH
how the mighty fall

NH
and a new CEO to boot

BE
Actually, there's a Fred Lucas note around on BG this morning.

BE
Fred's very good.

BE
El Confidential has reported that Repsol will today analyze a proposal for
its LNG assets from China Industrial Corporation (CIC) in alliance GDF
Suez. Sources privy to the transaction told the paper that the offer received
stands at €1.5-2.0bn excluding debt.

This is a very important transaction
for Repsol, but it will also provide an important read through reference for
BG Group's LNG portfolio. We do not know if the transaction will
complete and, if it does, on what terms. However, this divestment by
Repsol may be reaching a climax and we want to prepare investors for the
possible consequences given the relevant read through to BG Group.

BE
Repsol's LNG portfolio – Repsol has built a simple and neat portfolio
of LNG infrastructure (liquefaction & re-gasification), marketing rights
and supply contracts. Its LNG strategy is one of return maximization i.e.
divestment. We believe that the sale of its LNG business will help to
maintain its investment grade credit rating and is key part of its 2012-16
debt reduction target of €7-9bn. Repsol's directly owned liquefaction
assets comprise two export facilities – Peru LNG (20% - 1 train, start up
2010) and Atlantic LNG, Trinidad (23% - 4 trains, start up 1999-2005) –
with a total net liquefaction capacity of 4.4 MT pa. Repsol has equity gas
supplies in to both Atlantic LNG and Peru LNG facilities.

Repsol has
100% of Peru LNG marketing rights (18 years from commissioning in
June 2010) and has one long term supply contract to CFE (Mexico). Its
key re-gasification asset is a 75% and controlling ownership of Canaport
LNG (Canada) which can supply the New Brunswick and Maine
markets. Its shipping assets (and those of Gas Natural) are managed via
Stream, a 50-50 JV with Gas Natural (30.8% owned by Repsol). Stream
does not own the ships; separately Repsol owns LNG ships and charters
them on short and medium term agreements.

BE
Important read through to BG Group – If Repsol sells its LNG
business, it will be the first major LNG business sale for many years. The
read through for BG Group is especially relevant given the shared
ownership of Atlantic LNG (BG average interest 30%) and the
importance of the LNG stream to BG Group (> 33% 2012E EBIT).
Although Repsol's LNG portfolio is fully invested (2012E-16E capex is
just €0.2bn) and thus has a very attractive free cash flow profile, we
believe that BG Group's LNG portfolio should command a multiple
premium to Repsol's because (i) Growth - BG Group's portfolio is
growing e.g. via QC LNG and Tanzania LNG; Repsol's portfolio has no
identifiable growth and 2012 represents peak earnings (ii) Scale - BG
Group's portfolio is almost 3x the scale of Repsol's e.g. Repsol LNG
2012E adjusted EBITDA $1.2bn versus BG Group's EBITDA $3.2bn
(NB the profitability of BG Group's business in 2012 is suppressed by
out-of-the-money hedging) (iii) Control – BG Group operates Atlantic
and Egypt LNG; Repsol only controls the Canaport terminal. (iv)
Diversion capability – although Repsol has some cargo diversion
capability, BG Group is the market leader (v) Dual basin facing – once
QC LNG is operational (2014), both portfolios will have efficient supply
capabilities to both the Atlantic Basin and Asia Pacific.

BE
What the sales price could tell us about the value of BG Group's
LNG franchise – In the table below, we show an equity value sensitivity
for Repsol's LNG business. We confess that these kinds of businesses are
tricky for us to value without detailed information on the LNG supply
agreements (pricing and margin). Our NAV for BG Group's LNG
business is $19.4bn or 350 pence per share – this equates to a 2012E
EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x. If Repsol sells its LNG business for an
equity value of €1.5bn the implied EV is €5.5bn and implied
EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.4x - this is 4% higher than our NAV valuation
of BG Group's LNG business. If Repsol sells its LNG business for an
equity value of €2.5bn, this would imply a 2012 EV/EBITDA multiple of
7.5x which is 22% above BG Group's LNG NAV implied multiple. As
we have reasoned, we believe that BG Group's LNG business merits a
higher multiple. Furthermore, BG Group trades at a 40% discount to our
NAV of £17. So, we feel that this transaction (if it occurs) could be a
positive trigger for BG Group and provide the market with a salient and
poignant reminder of the value that is absent BG Group's share price.

We remain OVERWEIGHT BG Group.

[arja] 20/12/2012 11:24

can not believe I did not short BG after I sold and cut my loss ! It was a double top on chart and in theory could get to about £8 as tweeet suggests but I think £10 is a strong chart support level !

[philanderer] 20/12/2012 11:04

Thanks arja, as you say RRS a quality company and top management. Always something going on politically in Africa ;-)

[arja] 20/12/2012 10:37

morning philanderer ,
yes, tweeek certainly got it right and useful to have friends on the inside if it was not bulldust ! RRS is in a clear short term downtrend with gold price not helping but it is a quality producer and should come good in time I think assuming no nasty shocks on African political front . I traded RRS a lot some months ago with CFDs and , as you no doubt know , it religiously follows the US quote after 2.30pm and even before that with futures quote . Sometimes can get a bargain in opening auction with DMA as it should open in line with US close allowing for change in gold price . Good luck with it .

[skinny] 20/12/2012 09:43

Apart from a few trades back in November, I haven't held these for @3 years.

A break of £10 may be a good entry point?

[philanderer] 19/12/2012 23:21

Interview with Betsy Spomer, BG Group, on current challenges facing the gas sector

[philanderer] 19/12/2012 20:30

So much for 1030p holding ;-)


'After a promising start BG Group (LSE: BG.) has had a difficult 2012.'

[philanderer] 18/12/2012 23:47

Evening iwillbe.

Don`t think we`ll get that much movement for a while until the full year results on february 5th. Production guidance may be the key.

Must be nearly the closed period for director buying ?

BG Group plc: Rubbish 2012, speculative play for 2013

Siddiqi notes BG Group plc (LON:BG) is by contrast off around 25% YTD, "not a surprise given the downgrades to production and earnings guidance over the past year."

BG Group has a new CEO, which removes a big issue for investors over the strategy of the company.

"The company's assets are still attractive and the shares could see a reversal from the underperformance this year, however as with Anglo American, traders will need to see concrete plans of action by the CEO to instil confidence over the oil majors' outlook," says Siddiqi.

Over at SVS Securities we note that analysts have BG down for a 'santa rally' - in a note to clients the advisors cite the stock as being a speculative play noting that bid speculations and a potential recovery in gas prices could catalyse a recovery.

For now though, SVS Securities are trading BG's volatility.

[iwillbe] 18/12/2012 23:07

philanderer...
little is the right word.
i hold more shares than the non executive director. probably most do.
think that says it all.
something is seriously spooking this share.
not recovering at all.
if directors are buying albeit peanuts, then no take over in sight.

[philanderer] 18/12/2012 19:55

Every little helps :-)

Director Deals - BG Group PLC (BG.)

18 December 2012 | 14:45pm

StockMarketWire.com - Sir David Manning, Non Executive Director, bought 133 shares in the company on the 17th December 2012 at a price of 1031.00p. The Director now holds 2,276 shares representing 0.00% of the shares in issue.

[philanderer] 18/12/2012 16:47

Have a good one Tweeeek :-D

[tweeeek] 18/12/2012 14:15

Its a fantastic short and support at £10 is weak, charts point to £8.50 and don't let other unscrupulous characters tell you otherwise.

Have a merry xmas and a happy new year, I've finished for the year yipeeeeee..

[philanderer] 18/12/2012 13:23

Afternoon arja.

1030p`ish has been support for two days now , maybe ?? ;-)

[arja] 18/12/2012 13:10

still struggling to turn around although hit 1040 early on ! but looking a bit better and might not get to that £10 support level .

[philanderer] 17/12/2012 20:03

Redmayne - Bentley:

Risks include funding the development of its large projects in Australia and Brazil. Bond issuance was successful in 2011, although that may be hampered by the profit warning. In addition, it looks to finance projects using ‘strong cash flows from operating assets. If the Australian sale goes ahead BG could be in front of its asset sale targets for the middle of 2013. Investor sentiment, which has been hit by the profit warning, is at a low.

One analyst at Jeffries questioned whether the circle of trust has been broken, although kept his buy recommendation on the shares. BG has long been on the takeover rumour mill, and names such as Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and the Chinese state have been mentioned. If anyone is looking to instigate a takeover, this fall brings the share price to more attractive levels. And, whilst the stock is out of favour, this might be a good time for contrarians to pick them up. Therefore, whilst this view does not constitute a personal recommendation and any advice given to individual clients would vary according to their personal risk profile and objectives, we rate BG Group a speculative buy at the time of writing.

Robert Kilner, Stockbroker
All prices quoted correct as at 12th December 2012.


Read more:

[philanderer] 17/12/2012 17:19

Thanks arja , it was only a small top up anyway, but it brings the average down slightly.

[arja] 17/12/2012 16:03

a bit dangerous philanderer as chart does not show a turnaround yet ! I will just watch and wait but good luck with it .

[philanderer] 17/12/2012 15:55

I`ve gone all contrarian and added a few at 1030p today :-)