Berkeley Energia Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 11/1/2016 08:53

No it isn't.

By the time they start producing the material, demand will be rising all over the world - there is no substitute for uranium if you go nuclear - as most countries are.

S/P well up last year, unlike all other miners.

[bookvan] 11/1/2016 08:47

"1, The current uranium price at the projected cost for mining returns a profit. Any increase in the price per pound for uranium returns a bigger profit."

The uranium price is still falling. As long as it's falling, uranium miners/explorers are not going to go up. That's how it works. The uranium price is still in a downward trend, right? Somebody correct me on that.

"2. Helpful but not essential for BKY which is a speciality stock dealing in an unusual commodity."

No - the whole commodity/mining sector is weak and getting weaker. Uranium is no more an unusual commodity than any of the others. If it were a special case the price would be going up not down.

"What you have omitted is an increase in resource and I personally look forward to the announcement of the results of the exploration which is either being currently undertaken or which is promised. If it were anything approaching the Zona7 result that will light up the share price."

Miners are announcing increase of resources all over the sector and share prices are not lighting up but still falling.

All your arguments are just the same as on most other boards. That is to say: it doesn't matter about the sector. Our company is different. Something will come along to make everybody see it.

But the facts are the mining sector is weak and getting weaker. Investor sentiment for the whole sector is dire. The only thing that will help the share price is if uranium (like gold) starts to stage it's independent recovery.

Can you answer this specific question: is there a sign of the uranium price getting stronger? It is absolutely crucial.

[herlat1] 10/1/2016 22:55

Bookvan the Uranium price doesn't need to do anything - this project will produce the stuff at half the current price.You could have posted the same comment six months ago - the share price has doubled since then!

[snowyflake] 10/1/2016 22:09

1628386 - Ian Middlemas got Mantra away at the equivalent of £500 million. I suspect that with the number of shares that he has in BKY he would not want to see it go cheaply.

[1628386] 10/1/2016 20:41

Snowyflake

You beat me to it. Whilst project finance is clearly a trigger for a serious re-rate, I agree that an equally huge event would be the discovery of another Zona 7 style discovery.

Paul is confident of doing just that.... From 4/11/15 RNS...

"We believe that the potential exists for further discoveries of Zona 7 style deposits and are finalising an exploration programme to commence in the New Year which will follow up a number of near surface, high grade drill intersections, located within ten kilometres of the plant that have not yet been fully evaluated."

If they pull this off within the 10km zone of the plant then the economics dramatically change again.

Bearing in mind, if they do discover another Zona 7 style deposit, near surface then BKY becomes a hugely sought after company and on the acquisition radar of a bigger company. I feel that would need to be priced into the share price and that could be explosive.

One sure way to finance the project is to hand the company over to a cash rich company (for a decent premium of course). It's a win/win as the acquiring company would immediately book an asset onto its balance sheet closer to the NPV. We are trading at a significant discount to the NPV as we don't have the finance sorted, so there is the synergy for a takeover.

To summarise, I don't think 1 & 2 is relevant either. It's the project finance and any further discoveries that will light the torch here and the prospect of a predator making a move

I love finding a hugely undervalued company and buying in ahead of a transformation change and right now, at 25p this is bargain territory

[snowyflake] 10/1/2016 19:55

1, The current uranium price at the projected cost for mining returns a profit. Any increase in the price per pound for uranium returns a bigger profit.

2. Helpful but not essential for BKY which is a speciality stock dealing in an unusual commodity.

3. Agreed and a major plus. But one needs to be more specific. Off take agreements and/or debt finance on acceptable terms to build into the DFS and/or equity finance?

What you have omitted is an increase in resource and I personally look forward to the announcement of the results of the exploration which is either being currently undertaken or which is promised. If it were anything approaching the Zona7 result that will light up the share price.

Therefore I cannot agree with your scoring but everyone is entitled to their view.

[bookvan] 10/1/2016 14:05

"The share price will have rocketed by the time the deal is announced through rumours and insider dealing anyway, so now's the time to BUY."

Wish I had something for every time I heard that in the last few years. Read it on so many boards and it never happens until it's announced and maybe not even then.

This needs 3 things:
1) a turn in the direction of the uranium price
2) a turn in the industrial metals miners sector
3) announcement of finance.

So far it's scoring 0 out of 3 so nothing is going to happen for the time being. Any poster on this board know enough to convince watchers otherwise? Doesn't look like it.

[philjeans] 09/1/2016 12:31

Yes - it's a winner for sure.

Let's leave the financing to the experts, shall we? And leave the hard work to the BOD, who we pay - we own the co through the shares we've bought and the capital we've lent the business.

So let's relax and let them get on with it!

The share price will have rocketed by the time the deal is announced through rumours and insider dealing anyway, so now's the time to BUY.

DYOR NAI

[fatboy20] 09/1/2016 12:07

As The Iron Lady once famously said 'You can;t buck the market' Everyone wants cleaner energy and nuclear is seen as clean. Everyone wants our product. Just a case of when not if!
Rest assured PA is skilled at raising finance and will succeed on favourable terms. Next Christmas's turkey looks huge from where I'm sitting

[1628386] 09/1/2016 09:44

Morning everyone. During the last few weeks, I've been building a stake in BKY and would like to join in the debate here. I've posted this on LSE and thought I'd post it here so anyone can post their thoughts (positive or negative) as I appreciate both - the constructive negative posts are key to challenging your own thinking and positive posts maybe act as confirmation .....

There is a huge valuation gap with BKY at the moment. The key to monetising the assets will be the project finance.

My background is corporate banking and when I look at the metrics here, I see a high quality, low cost asset positioned in a safe country. The project is already targeted to be the lowest cost in the world.

If we make any further discoveries of Zona 7 style deposits in the Q1 2016 exploration programme, then the Salamanca project becomes world class ... and without doubt will be on the radar of all financiers or indeed larger companies for straight acquisition.

From a financial provider point of view, there will be hot competition to partner BKY and Paul has already been surprised (inundated!) with offers.

Once we obtain project finance, we begin to unlock the valuation gap and that's when the share price has the potential to literally rocket out of this range.

Paul is keen to point out that the Salamanca project cost is already just half that of the current (depressed) Uranium price and therefore is highly bankable at these prices. Most agree the uranium price is set to rise. If this happens, we become a leveraged bet on the uranium price simply because the margin expansion is massive.

In summary, there is so much future potential in this company and the unlocking process of value is days, weeks away.

Paul is presenting again on the 14th Jan and of course an update is due by month end with the financials. I expect to hear progress on finance and exploration.

Something tells me that we shall soon be seeing the back of the the 20's

[herlat1] 07/1/2016 20:47

Wow! 2.4 million shares traded today..That wasn't you diving in was it QP? :-)

[snowyflake] 07/1/2016 12:08

philjeans - in these markets it is not as easy as the fundamentals may appear.

QP is absolutely right regarding the equity mix. The company needs the share price up in order to avoid large dilution which inter alia will not help the holding of Ian Middlemas (we are small fry in the scheme of things). The share price would be helped by an increase in the amount of resource which is why I am looking for a positive statement regarding the results of further exploration.

It is not difficult to see the effect on the dynamics of the project and the share price when the result for Zona 7 was released. An increase in resource also helps the longevity of the project which is something that purchasers of product and financiers are keen on.

Sorry QP that you have heard further from me!!

[quepassa] 07/1/2016 12:01

herlat1,

i am interested in the uranium story and potentially investing in BKY but only invest my meagre resources with great care and after a lot of research.

when severstal bid for BKY a few years back, the mining world was a very different place. I am sure you will agree with that.

hindsight is a wonderful thing and what a shame the bid was then rejected??

your point about a take-out of BKY is interesting. i was just tapping out a response to philjeans which refers.

thanks for your response - i am in the same boat as you and i also "dont know how they will finance the project".

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philjeans] 07/1/2016 11:24

Raising finance for this one should be relatively easy - country risk; political risk; skills available; resource available; stable geographic region; employees available (big time!); end product in demand; etc etc.

All low risk and in the Euro Zone too - if mines can get finance in some of the worst hot-spots in the world, they can definetely get it in Spain!

[snowyflake] 07/1/2016 10:57

Piedro - not only does the information data have to be accurate (positive or negative) but the more positive the easier it is for debt finance to be raised and off take agreements reached. It also helps to persuade the institutions who are approached to take part in a placing that the project is viable.

Those responsible for the DFS have to be accurate - their professional reputations are on the line.

[quepassa] 07/1/2016 10:57

herlat1.

Do you think Berkeley can raise the necessary $81m if the share price remains at this level?

The repeat RNS's and increases to broker share price forecasts are having no discernable effect and impact on the share price in such a highly negative market.

What potential investors want to see in my opinion is concrete news on the financing which was again sadly lacking in today's RNS.

It is glaring that Berkeley have apparently all the licenses and permits etc etc in place but no concrete news of financing. Where is the money?

Resources in the ground are just that without the financial resources to dig them out.

Seems to me that we have a classic Catch-22 situation. A higher share price is needed in my opinion for funding. And funding is needed for a higher share price.

My guess is that Berkeley's funding plans include raising equity and that, in my opinion, needs a much more buoyant share price which is looking unlikely in my opinion in such a negative market.

What's your ( not snowflake's ) view please?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 07/1/2016 10:19

herlat1,
Thank you - good to have an expert present

[herlat1] 07/1/2016 09:50

Piedro old data?? They recalculated using new data from the PFS which is exactly what they are supposed to do to progress the deposit through the Inferred, Indicated and Measured categories and then to Proven and Probable!!

[piedro] 07/1/2016 09:16

Getting a bit jammy
- that RNS was not necessary IMO
- old data

Drilling and Sampling Techniques
The Mineral Resource Estimate ('MRE') update is based on data from three phases of drilling (historical 1960's to 1980's, 2007-2008, 2013-2014) totaling 1,105 holes for 74,099 metres. ... ... There is no change in the drilling data used since the April 2015 MRE.

[piedro] 07/1/2016 08:20

Berkeley News:
Resource upgrade further boosts the economics of the Salamanca project
The robust economics of the Salamanca project are expected to further improve today following an update to the Mineral Resource Estimate for the Retortillo deposit, which has lead to a 15% increase in grade.
The Retortillo deposit is located adjacent to the proposed process plant and, along with the shallow, high grade Zona 7 deposit, will be the first to be mined after construction which commences in mid-2016.
The updated resource estimate is now being included in the optimisation studies, and is expected to move the company closer to its goal of becoming one of the world’s lowest cost uranium producers.
Discussions with potential financiers and offtake partners are now well underway with the aim of having funding and sales contracts in place well ahead of the ground-breaking ceremony in the summer.
Managing Director Paul Atherley commented:
“The positive impact this increase in grade is expected to have on the overall economics emphasizes the project’s robustness at current uranium prices.
The steady state operating costs of US$15.60 per pound are already less than half the current uranium price and with the optimisation studies well underway this very healthy margin is expected to increase.”

[philjeans] 07/1/2016 07:31

More good news today - shaping up well, this one.

[snowyflake] 06/1/2016 21:14

what I like about the note is the comment "secondly there is the potential to find further Zona 7 deposits now the geology is better understood".

We know the company is planning further exploration but I thought in a parameter of 10 kms from Zona 7.

Might there be an update prior to the final quarter's note at the end of January?

[fatboy20] 06/1/2016 10:08

That is just what I wanted to hear!!