Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 02/12/2024 09:40

But not a word about the price.

[edmonda] 02/12/2024 08:31

Another neat bolt-on today as @BegbiesTrnGroup buys White Maund Insolvency Practitioners who will add to BEG's existing 20 strong team in Brighton

[adipsia1] 20/11/2024 14:54

BEG and FRP may seem superficially similar but the profitability attached to the work referred to them differs greatly. FRP typically are referred larger Administrations which will involve restructuring and turnaround scenarios, whereas BEGs forte is liquidations of companies for whom there is no hope. BEG do receive Administrations but they tend to be smaller, less complex and therefore less profitable. BEGs perception amongst lenders and stakeholders who would refer work, is cheap and cheerful undertakers; FRPs reputation tends to be one where they have the skills and experience to undertake complex refinancing, restructuring or business sales leading to their patient surviving... hence the discrepancy between both companies profit margins.

[aleman] 20/11/2024 14:10

FRP does larger insolvencies and insolvencies seem to be moving up the value chain. I'd guess BEG can only do so many small insolvencies and then its pipeline will just get longer. FRP's pipeline will get lomger too but it will then prioritise/cherry pick the bigger ones that make most money? I don't think BEG has the admin structure to deal with many bigger ones? It's a large network of small offices, though some of the more recent acquisitions and rationalisation seem to be introducing a small amount of centralisation. However, they also brought diversification into cyclical busineses, so BEG is not as countercyclical as it used to be. So I'd guess both will grow in time but FRP's will be slightly more front-loaded as the downturn spreads and BEG might do better when normal growth resumes - or perhaps I should say IF normal growth resumes ...

[c3479z1] 20/11/2024 13:28

how does frp do better than beg, are they all that different businesses?

[adipsia1] 20/11/2024 08:15

Stunning interims from FRP again this morning.

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 15:18

Someone's in a snippy mood today :p

[eezymunny] 18/11/2024 12:51

I'm glad I'm not invested in the Boon fund if you hadn't read this already :)

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 12:49

Thanks for this! Also found the section after digging to satisfy my curiosity after my post.For me the key is that H2-CY23 and 2024 so far has been less acquisitions in terms of £ value. So we should quickly be approaching the decline of deferred consideration payments, in FY26? Management should be helpful and provide a yearly view of FY26-28 of what they expect the £20m-ish of expected payments to be.

[eezymunny] 18/11/2024 12:27

Boonkoh.

From the annual report

"there are further liabilities based on the sale and purchase agreements which are contingent on future financial and other performance conditions, as detailed below:

Recognised as a liability £5,946
Anticipated future liability based on current financial performance £13,137

Total current estimate of anticipated future payments £19,083 20,989 (sum of the two above)

The maximum potential payment (if all performance conditions are met) would be £36.4m. Management consider the likelihood of full payment to be remote."

So, around £20m expected as future payments.

If you consider that as debt with a very rapid repayment profile, you might reduce the PE ratio you're prepared to pay here by 1 or 2 IMO.

So you could consider current PE to be 10 or 11 for the current year (debt free). Quite cheap I think. Lots of far worse businesses on far higher ratios. I reckon PE 14+ would be reasonable but each to their own...

[martinmc123] 18/11/2024 12:00

4*
Begbies Traynor Group plc, the professional services consultancy, issued a strong HY trading update for the six months ended 31 October 2024. Revenue and adjusted profit before tax increased by c.16%, with a good balance of organic and acquired growth, free cash flow increased by c.8%. Management sound optimistic. Ric Traynor, Executive Chairman noted "We have made a very good start to the year with double digit growth in revenue and profits driven by positive momentum across the group...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BEG/989

[boonkoh] 18/11/2024 09:25

Frustratingly, they provided zero guidance on the future profile of deferred consideration still outstanding.This is the key. For a 10.5-11p EPS, we should be looking at a 11-12x PE at least (115-133p share price). Possibly more to 13x or 14x PE.However, the market is punishing Begbies for poor cashflow. This is because of the huge lumps of deferred consideration paid. This will fall off quickly, given the big acquisitions are now a few years ago now. But Begbies is giving almost zero visibility of the future cashflow profile in te next few years of these considerations.(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[edmonda] 18/11/2024 07:35

H1 update shows good growth again , with both revenues and adj PBT seen 16% higher.

Strong performance delivered by each of the two core divisions, and Board confident of matching full year expectations.

Results 10 Dec

[aleman] 17/11/2024 14:46

Smallcap insolvencies don't seem to be easing at all but the more cyclical property arm might be getting a slight boost from modest price increases and higher tranaction levels. BEG always seem to beat forecasts marginally but I'm looking for a slightly more marginal beat than normal. Nothing dramatic, just something that might see forecasts nudged up and generate enough cash to bring forward the next acquisition by a few months. The next one can't be far away and they usually see forecasts nudged up, too.

[suetballs] 17/11/2024 10:27

Good luck Bolton - I have no appetite for more. If fact I don’t have much appetite for the uk markets at all.
Suet

[the bolton wanderer] 17/11/2024 10:12

I increased my holding in BEG last week.
The share price is disappointing but the half year results should be out in a few weeks which might give it some momentum.
With a decent dividend it's a long term hold for me.

[boonkoh] 11/11/2024 18:49

A bit of a clickbait IMO.... One weeks worth of data doesn't a trend make..Bloomberg also picking up. They have a chart showing voluntary liquidation up quite a bit in Oct. Probably not material to Begbies business though.More British businesses are being wound up after the Government reduced tax breaks and increased taxes on entrepreneurs. At least 1,022 companies filed for insolvency last week, up 64pc on the same time a year ago, according to notices filed to the Gazette.

[aleman] 11/11/2024 14:35

More British businesses are being wound up after the Government reduced tax breaks and increased taxes on entrepreneurs. At least 1,022 companies filed for insolvency last week, up 64pc on the same time a year ago, according to notices filed to the Gazette.

[clocktower] 31/10/2024 12:03

Well they would have been 40% better off if they had sold in Jan 2023 or there about.

Most of us sell or buy at the wrong time, as I did paying £1.from time to time.

[c3479z] 31/10/2024 07:02

many companies in retail, hospitality, leisure likely to go bust following the NI charge rate rise in yesterday's budget?

[suetballs] 31/10/2024 06:46

What about a divorce!
Or something else personal.
Suet

[boonkoh] 30/10/2024 23:14

Maybe to lock in capital gains tax before Budget announcement?Note that the person selling has been at the company since 2004 as an employee, and moved to a non exec role sometime in the 2010s. So might be sitting on lots of capital gains.

[clocktower] 30/10/2024 16:25

Director selling after the firm saying the are doing the share buy back as the price was to low.

Does not look good, once the buy back is complete.

[adipsia1] 30/10/2024 13:32

Good question regarding what happens after the buyback.The UK IP marketplace has changed considerably over the last five years. BEG, FRP and K3 Capital effectively mopped-up smaller independent IPs and as a result there are not too many attractive regional firms left to drive further acquisitions, hence share buy-backs.

[boonkoh] 28/10/2024 16:22

Some very decent trading volumes, yesterday and today....