Thank you rivaldo. So perhaps worth getting into shortly before those results?
Those figures would certainly make it an investment, rather than a punt in the fog.
But difficult to grow volume or margins, given the staff heavy business model. |
Shore Capital's forecasts are for 10.7p EPS for the year about to end on 30th April, with a 4.2p dividend.
That's a low P/E at 96p of 8.9 and a rather attractive 4.4% divi yield. |
Interesting to read (but not surprising) that there's a lot more business stress out there, and thus good for Begbies, ie a runway building up for increased insolvencies.
I guess the problem is that as business grows so the need for more staff will grow, as this is not a business model that can be automated, or at least not yet.
Given the profits it's at a very fancy rating. It would seem a very safe business under current circumstances, but I would guess people are wanting investments that are both secure, and pay a good divi. It isn't on a PE of 10 and paying 5% divi. |
Are these really going to fall much further?
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
BEG have won an appointment as administrators to Aeristech, an "almost 50-strong motor technology company" in the Midlands: |
"continuing elevated activity levels"
Enough said. But everybody knows how cr*p it is out there. When will the market wake up and stop treating BEG like the rest? |
A nicely positive Q3 update today - and the outlook is rosy. Both:
"continue to see encouraging activity levels and positive momentum across the group"
and:
"With recent reports of rising insolvencies and business financial distress, market conditions remain supportive"
Shore Capital today note that, alongside the 4.5% dividend yield:
"The shares are trading at a 12m fwd PE of 8.5x, which is far too low given the current point in the cycle"
"Valuation: Begbies trades on a 12m fwd PE of 8.5x against a 5-yr average of c.13x, a discount which is far too low given the elevated insolvency levels in the UK. Following today’s positive update, we expect the shares to trade modestly ahead of the market. The outlook is positive given Begbies’ bias to insolvency and defensive activities and the company has scope to continue increasing its scale and breadth of services through further M&A and organic investment." |
 "Resilient, undervalued, and growing" - new research out today (link and audio summary below)
Begbies Traynor has confirmed financial performance in 3Q25 was as expected and that FY25E will extend its track record for strong financial growth. We forecast 11% revenue growth and a high 15% Adjusted PBT margin. The macro-economic environment remains supportive for Begbies and the group’s expansion into property advisory gives momentum which we believe is undervalued, trading on only c.9x calendar ‘25 PER.
Today’s trading update confirms that “both divisions have been consistent with the Board’s expectations in the quarter” and that “with a strong pipeline and continued elevated activity levels, our expectations for the full year remain unchanged”. We forecast revenue of £152m for FY25E, +11%, comprising 9% for Business Recovery and Advisory services (to £105m) and 17% for Property Advisory services (to £47m).
BEG shares trade at a c.35% discount to their long-run average valuation multiples and a discount to peers. Offering highly profitable organic growth of 5%-6%, we see scope for a significant rerating to 14x calendar ‘25 PER and a 3% yield – equating to a fair value of 145p / share.
Link here: |
Right, got the gloomy defensive share average down to just a smidgeon under 95p so far.
Nobody wants this to work.
We'd rather have a roaring bull market rather than giving out images of being stood outside the BEG offices with a banner that says:
"I bought your shares...give us a wave"
My defensive moves are garbage so lets hope they don't work and more bullish starts to appear out there.
Back to watching the gloom.
All imo
DYOR |
Hard to believe BEG shares are looking weak, given the amount of economic damage the B of E and Reeves are doing.
Historic jump in the number of firms in critical financial distress
Less than three months after the Budget, critical financial distress climbs by 50% to 46,853 businesses |
What has happened here?
Plungeville. I'm doing bad on the defensive moves. Escaped CMCX break even and down 10% here.
You'd have thought there would be some value in having some defensive side. It is just a drag right now. Other shares are flying (for this pile of dung market)!
I'm gonna add.
Try and get the average toward the low 90's and then sit and wait to see if those insolvency figures and bad news out there does feed through here.
All imo
DYOR |
After seasonal adjustment, 10,050 individuals entered insolvency in England and Wales in December 2024. This was similar to November 2024 and 23% higher than in December 2023.
The total number of individual insolvencies registered in 2024 was 117,947, which was 14% higher than the 103,434 registered in 2023.
After seasonal adjustment, the number of registered company insolvencies in England and Wales was 1,838 in December 2024, 6% lower than in November 2024 (1,962) and 14% lower than the same month in the previous year (2,139 in December 2023). The number of company insolvencies remained much higher than those seen both during the COVID-19 pandemic and between 2014 and 2019. (6% fall but average Nov-Dec fall for previous 3 years has been 12%)
In 2024, there were 23,872 registered company insolvencies comprising 18,840 creditors’ voluntary liquidations (CVLs), 3,230 compulsory liquidations, 1,597 administrations, 202 company voluntary arrangements (CVAs) and three receivership appointments. The total number of company insolvencies in 2024 was 5% lower than in 2023, which saw the highest annual number since 1993. |
Not enough.
So that little book build up to a squid was notable. They sat on the bid and mopped up blocks of 770k, 200k and other bits but not enough to cause a stir.
I hone in those because you know someone is in the market for shares. It is just then a matter of how big the order is. If the whoppers hit, the market realises sellers are clearing, the bid builds through a squid with orders jumping each other and then...
Excitement can follow.
Not that we are allowed excitement in this day and age.
But clearly someone has made a move.
Come on...come back for more.
You know you wanna.
All imo
DYOR |
The chart looks slightly more interesting now it has had its first attempt to get through 100p. 104p+ would be more interesting. There has been no pessimistic news here at all - just steady growth, with the targeted sectors looking busy at the moment. Given the balance sheet and available debt facility, they are probably due to announce another acquisition soon. They tend to lead to very modest incremental upgrades to forecasts. They said property was more likely than insolvency in the interim results video. I suggest they are working on the next addition ...
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
I got loads of dribble coming out me nose....this is the best place to have a moan about all things gloomy.
Have a good moan and mention all the doom here....and the price could go higher!
Just noted a few bigger orders popping up on the order book here: 30k@99p,15k and 5k@ 99.6p...there is abit of a stack up to 100.5p currently. There were some automated sells hitting 100p earlier - natural sell point for some.
Wanted to buy these further down, but the greedy buyers have bid it up instead so just had a starter nibble higher up.
Buying abitta gloom!
It is lumpy and this move isn't indicative of anything. It would need more buyers to jump these orders on the bid to have a go at 105p to really get the market excited...for...erm...gloom.
Did I mention gloom?
But there is enough gloom to warrant a purchase and see if BEG do upgrade numbers this year.
Buy abitta gloom!
All imo
DYOR |
About time I think.
Suet |
Downtrend to break or not? Fundamentals look quite promising.
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Large positive write up in IC this week. |
Prices are now rising faster in the UK than the US in spite of America’s booming economy. Oh dear.. it's going to be a bumpy ride for British businesses. |
It gets worse.
All of that and now the 10 year is spiking in a horrible way. I have exited alot of trading positions. If that yield keeps going, something usually breaks (another Truss moment?) and then we could see all kinds of forced selling, let alone what it means for profits and insolvencies.
Firmer talk of Reeves having to damage the economy further with more tax increases and reduced spending. The mess just gets worse.
But hey...good for BEG right.
Give us a forced selling plunge to buy on ha
That yield better calm down. Prefer to play it safe.
All imo
DYOR |
Stagflation is a worry. Ways to combat? Reducing spending, paying down debt, and building emergency savings. Ummmmmmmmmm...... over to Rachel... |
 Trying to piece this year together and it is quite gloomy.
So we have gone from the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of last year to:
-Downward revision to Q2 2024 GDP growth.
-Growth from July to September was revised down from 0.1pc to zero
-Contraction of 0.1% estimated in months of Sep and Oct....
-An optimistic forecast of Q4 having zero growth by BoE? Already cut the forecast from growth 0.3%
We also have inflation higher than expected and forecast to hit 3%. So the rate cuts not as quick as anticipated with forecast of two cuts now in 2025 vs four pre-Budget. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) warned that “most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined”, while highlighting that stubborn inflation would prevent any further cuts in interest rates any time soon.
So is it stagflation? Can they even cut?
Then there is news around the CBI reporting that firms expect activity to fall sharply in the first three months of 2025. The CBI said the economic outlook was now at its weakest in more than two years, while Threadneedle Street warned businesses were reacting to the Budget with “lower headcount, hours and pay and higher prices than otherwise”
More headlines around job vacancies disappearing, retail spending falling, and investment decisions are being shelved or cancelled.
The "R" word now being mentioned alot more prominently.
That slight miss on services today is a huge relief! Hooorah!
I say....Hoooraah! Big round of applause for Services!
Mentioned our market being broken before with the well known issue of flows. Don't know if their will be any substantial pick up seeing all this doom and gloom happening now. I don't know how it plays out, but it feels like having to keep the expectations low on price moves and returns out there. Some will say that is a bullish signal...buy buy buy!
If you have all that though, shouldn't BEG be trading higher?
IC had this last month:
"Begbies trades on a 12-month forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 8.4 times earnings against a five-year average of 13 times, according to house broker Shore Capital"
Canaccord note kindly posted by Rivaldo above goes with a higher multiple of 14.5 on eps of 10.4p.
Maybe forced sellers to clear here too or is something else at work?
Not fully tuned in here but watching now. Noted blocks of 400k and 386k picked up at 96p after the close on Friday. Price hasn't budged so looks like big sellers are still at work in the market. It is just farting around...well...nothing significant is happening price wise, but curious to see if buying does eventually pick up - should the gloomy headlines continue.
Ideally like to buy in cheaper really (greedy?) at the bottom of the recent range, but I suspect the market will eventually be watching for a break above 106p...to erm....
..confirm the gloom out there!
Let's hope it ends up as a manageable form of gloom.....ooerr...
Over to the BEG experts and Economists out there!
All imo
DYOR |
Https://www.aol.co.uk/uk-retailers-brink-collapse-surges-083518196.html |
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