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[dr biotech] 27/3/2020 19:45

My understanding (I’m not 100%) is that on the DP they tested everyone multiple times. So the 700 included those with no symptoms, and the remaining 2300 were never infected. How many were infected but asymptomatic isn’t clear.

What I think will happen is case in large cities will start to flatten out (still a period of rising in some) and the we will see other hotspots but they will rise less rapidly due to the social restrictions.

Whatever the outcome, we have to do our bit and hopefully stay safe.

[fse] 27/3/2020 16:57

> Dr Bio.... cruise ships are not at all good for keeping virus from spreading as aside from anything else they use central AC / ventilation ducting. Also you are not allowing for the fact that those infected were not diagnosed until several days later as symptoms had not surfaced so they did not start isolating. Also you have all those asymptomatic people who were assumed to have not contracted it.
We also know that the virus can live on surfaces for quite some days and so prior to the virus being spotted .... doorhandles, lift buttons, hand rails would have encouraged the spread.

Herd immunity is a complex discussion and should not be confused with rate of spreading.
I looked at the actual death rate "new daily death rate" as the only accurate baseline we have and reverse analyzed it from there. The ROI started slowing in Italy probably 2 weeks ago and started showing up in the new deaths figures flattening a week ago.
If you compare the timeline with China and South Korea the similarities are evident.

I cautiously think Italy has peaked but there will be spikes as there are still a lot of critically sick people who are heading into the latter stages. Nevertheless we should start to see the new death rates start to fall anytime soon on a linear scale they will not evaporate.
All IMO

Added comment>. Italy posted another record number of new deaths today. Wretched as this is it is painting the same picture as Spain announced today
"Today we have more deaths than registered yesterday, but it is also true that in percentage terms, today's increase is roughly equivalent to that of the past three days, in which we seem to see a clear stabilisation," health emergency chief Fernando Simon told a news conference on Friday.

[dr biotech] 27/3/2020 16:11

They shut down the DP as soon as they could, but then the cases spread when in was supposed to be in lockdown. I’ve no idea what social separation is like on a 3000+ capacity ship, but I’d imagine it’s normally quite good as ships have had others similar issues with norovirus in the past.

The death rates between different countries is interesting and partially explained by different levels of testing and that apparently the Germans tested/infected so far have been a lot younger. Also if someone dies in Germany apparently they don’t test for covid, or don’t necessarily give that as the cause of death.

We will find out the true rate when we get the antibody kits out so we can tell how many have had it and not known. If I had to guess it would say around 1-2%.

Rate of spread us like a pyramid scheme, in that you run out of people to infect. Think we are some way from that peaking though.

[fse] 27/3/2020 14:51

Dr Bio..... I was tracking this in numbers per thousand and the % sign in one passage should not have been there. The initial fatality rate from the Diamond Princes was indeed 7/3000 or 2.333 per thousand.
I also mentioned that we could lose more people. I used the figure of 10 deaths which is now 10/3000 or 3 per thousand, which is exactly where we are at.

Also the Diamond Princess had no way of knowing that they had any Covid-19 cases on board until the first passengers displayed symptoms which would have been days after they contracted it. It would have spread through the ship long before they made any attempts to isolate people.

I am not say saying 75% were asymptomatic they simply did not contract the virus at all. To say on a cruise ship they were all not exposed is not realistic either.
My point on all of this is that neither you or I know what the fatality rate from Covid-19 actually is it certainly is not as high as was originally feared. Without random testing and knowing how many people can actually even contract this we do not know.

We are trying to flatten the curve to prevent the hospitals from dealing with peak numbers. The time Covid-19 patients are on ventilators is longer than for typical influenza respiratory cases. This is a real issue.

Please explain the difference between Italy and Germany mortality rates and why Germany is reporting 4 deaths per thousand .....
Are you saying that the Germans were 10 times more efficient in isolating people from the virus or could it be that they tested a larger segment of the population and more randomly. The Italian case figure are from testing people who are already ill not just having contracted the virus.

My whole point is that we do NOT have the data ....... we need far more testing.
Added comment, What we also do not know is what the contraction rate is following exposure to the virus.
What are your estimates on this figure ?
Also did you look at the link I posted, it was part of the observation.
What is your reaction to this ?
re posting

[dr biotech] 27/3/2020 09:56

FSE,

Your analysis is flawed. The Diamond Princess is a Petri dish of sorts and is useful as everyone was tested so it picked up those without symptoms.

Firstly

1) they did try to isolate as many as possible, but bodged it (not entirely sure how) so 700 caught the virus. You can’t assume that the other 2300 were immune. You have to exclude them and assume they weren’t exposed.

Of the 700, 10 have sadly died. 1.4% (there are still some in treatment)

2) About 40-50 were taken into intensive care (including the 10). How many of these would have died without ventilation is uncertain, but if the hospitals are overwhelmed that’s what would happen. If we say 50% then about 25 would have died or 3.5%

You have also made a mistake- 2 per 1000, is 0.2%. Not 0.002%

[baz9707] 26/3/2020 16:38

Steady at this price nice waiting for the next RNS.

[nw99] 26/3/2020 16:16

That's it sorry was out all day

[james dean] 26/3/2020 09:08

reeltime

Could be this one nw99 refers:

[reeltime] 26/3/2020 08:56

nw99.....Could you give us any details regarding what the article says.

[nw99] 26/3/2020 07:39

Nice article in shs mag on the home testing kit

[fse] 25/3/2020 14:12

Not sure I should even post this comment and link as stating the facts about Covid_19 seems to get you in trouble. I am not for one minute suggesting that the virus is not to be taken seriously or that you should not take steps to protect yourself and others..... "BUT"
The maths simply does not add up.
The papers are full of articles and graphs and reporters screeching how the virus is accelerating and will infect and kill millions.
Thats not what the statistics are saying if you reverse analyze this from the new death rate you get a mortality rate similar to a bad influenza outbreak.
the Diamond Princess was a floating petri dish it was virtually impossible to avoid exposure to the virus.Also everyone was tested.As it was a cruise ship there were a high number of elderly passengers on board.
Numbers rounded out but 3000 people on board 700 tested positive 75% did not contract the virus at all similar to a flu virus. 7 people died. Thats a mortality rate of .002% or 2 per thousand not the figures governments are touting.
Italy arguably passed the peak some 5 days ago as the new death rate went from an exponential curve to a linear one. The ROI is also questionable.Italy is calling a mortality rate of anything up to 8%. This is plain inaccurate.
Germany posts a mortality rate of .004 substantially lower as it tested more randomly not testing just the people that were already seriously ill. Were they do a completely random test I figure mortality rate would come in at .001 to .002.
Thats an inconvenient truth for the we are all going to die bunch.
Not having mass tests administered to a random group means the WHO and Governments simply are wide of the mark in their estimates by a factor of at least 10 and more likely closer to a 100.
It is irresponsible to make conclusions based on the new cases recorded and even more ludicrous to print graphs showing just the numbers of people infected growing. If you look at the same graphs on a logarithmic scale you will see they are flattening out if you plot the ROI its actually receding.
I have attached an interesting article below.
Not suggesting again that we not take this seriously but it should have been put in context, Resources would have been better earmarked for protecting and quarantining the elderly, the production of ventilators and organizing field hospitals to deal with the spikes. Shutting the whole economy down ? you decide.




Added comment. "TESTS" or the lack of them is what is making the news at the moment. Any hope of getting the economy functioning again is going to evolve around individual area assessment and without expansive and random testing its impossible to make a balanced decision.

[nw99] 25/3/2020 08:33

Stock is in the right area for 5G and also covid so really looks very good and chart points to 55p area re test . An6 news it could spike to 65

[james dean] 25/3/2020 08:12

.


.

[paulisi] 25/3/2020 07:52

There will be huge demand for this.I know from our company that the previous VPN system couldn't cope with the increased volumes of people working from home and they have had to build a new system to replace very quickly.

[cumnor] 24/3/2020 22:33

Nice one Baz, well spotted. I wish you well and hope you recover quickly. The demand for tests will be very high for two years at least. Good move by BATM.

[baz9707] 24/3/2020 22:00

FSE
I am in the same boat as many, symptoms with dry cough tired and shortness of breath.
Steroids and inhaler delivered pretty quick but I still do not know what is wrong with me. Testing is needed large scale.

[fse] 24/3/2020 21:53

Good spot indeed baz.
BATM have already made it very clear they are not trying to make money out of a disaster. What this will do is to endorse their products and approach.
It does also back up what I heard that they were in production of the kits and planned to ship very shorty, they also indicated that they would make a large number of kits available to the Israeli Health care.
This may be the first time we see "random testing" which will put the fatality rate into perspective and give us an infinitely better approach ..

[nw99] 24/3/2020 20:58

Amazing news

[markyt] 24/3/2020 13:50

Correction on last post newswire article my mistake

[fse] 24/3/2020 13:46

>baz.... yes it was just an announcement misread your post did not want it misconstrued as an RNS. I posted it as a reminder that BATM Telco systems are making rapid progress in the future 5G environment. Its all understandably been medical buzz baz ... ;-)

[markyt] 24/3/2020 12:27

Good rns especially as the world could be about start to move towards western companies now ?