Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[markth] 07/5/2024 14:16

Like you I place little faith in "technical" analysis. However if large numbers of people are doing it and getting the same answer the psychology and herd mentality may make some of it a self fulfilling prophecy.My faith is based on dividends. I don't need a chart to see if the company is earning enough cash to cover the divvy, or to watch their cash flow and liquidity.The value of a share is its assets plus the NPV of all its future dividends. That NPV, for long term holders, dwarfs today's share price and so I am not concerned about a few pennies move this way or that predicted by a Chartist. Short term moves are driven by by fear, uncertainty, doubt, greed, hype and other irrational emotional things.

[dr biotech] 07/5/2024 14:02

Over 500p now if you include the pending dividend. I've always wondered how chartist deal with dividends, I think most on here don't, but I'm willing to be enlightened.

[makinbuks] 07/5/2024 12:05

Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) is not VAT, but you might think of it as “VAT for insurance”. It’s a tax that’s applied to insurance premiums received under taxable insurance contracts. It’s applied at two rates: A standard rate of 12%, and a higher rate of 20% for insurance supplied with selected goods and services.

Alcohol and tobacco duties are as well as VAT so its not really a valid comparison

[whatsup32] 07/5/2024 08:05

Nice start this morning, good close naz last night . Seems to be teasing £4.80

[whatsup32] 04/5/2024 10:06

The Times "Insurance tax is an £8bn cash cow"
Most people are not aware we pay 12 -20% tax on Insurance and get nothing in return.
"Levy on premiums costs us more than tobacco or alcohol duties"

[1robbob] 03/5/2024 19:56

Buyback should be completed by 23rd May

[whatsup32] 03/5/2024 18:55

23rd May , dividend payment and trading update. Not expecting any surprises on trading

[cfro] 02/5/2024 16:14

Well, looks like a lot of happy shareholder bunnies judging by the results of todays AGM..

99.89% in favour of Ms Blancs re-election..

[bargainsniper] 01/5/2024 20:03

Https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/aviva-inks-new-deal-to-offer-online-risk-and-reputation-solutions/1451792.article

[1robbob] 01/5/2024 16:02

Makinbuks
...oh dear!!!!

[makinbuks] 01/5/2024 09:18

I'm with you 1rob, you have form

[1robbob] 01/5/2024 09:05

AGM Tomorrow

[1robbob] 29/4/2024 18:25

flyfisher
I bet I am closer
..with a consensus number you only need one idiot to scew the number

[flyfisher] 29/4/2024 16:59

Broker consensus div for 2024 is currently 35.98p.

[1robbob] 29/4/2024 12:53

Fenners66

I am currently suggesting 35.52p per share for 2024 not 35.2p

The BOD have already stated that the total cost of the dividend for 2024 'will rise by mid single digit percentage over 2023'. Thus I have assumed that the total cost for 2024 will be £960m ie +5% on 2023s £915m

Currently the outstanding equity is 2.702bn. Thus as of today the total dividend for 2024 will be 35.52p per share

However, this will be a conservative estimate as the Share Buy back will continue to reduce the amount of equity outstanding

My guess is that the total dividend for 2024 will be circa 35.75p per share after completion of the share buyback, +7% over 2023

[fenners66] 29/4/2024 10:47

1robbob - can I ask , what is your calculation behind the +6.35% dividend increase ? Or how do you get to 35.2p?

[1robbob] 29/4/2024 08:41

Share Buy-back update
As at 26th April

Total Shares purchased: 37.27m
Total cost of shares purchased: £177.5m
Average cost of shares purchased: 476.34p
% of Buy-back completed: 59.2%

Saved cost of Final Dividend: £5.1m

Assuming a total dividend cost of £960m for 2024
the total dividend per share will be 35.52p (+6.35% on 2023)

[whatsup32] 28/4/2024 13:39

Behind pay wall

‘What’s a storm’ .
Aviva lead underwriter refused to pay £60m demand describing the event as storm which has max payout of £25m (paid) and Butlins claim it’s a ‘flood’ there by £60m claim is valid.
Butlin says it’s only a storm if there is strong winds also it was not categorised as “storm” by met office .

Aviva argued strong winds is not necessary for it to be a storm.

[cardinal3] 28/4/2024 11:54

ijak

You make great points. I think the Capital Markets Day on 12 June is going to tell us where this is headed in the coming years. Much as I liked the previous CEO I agree that he tended to focus on the ESG and asset creation side of the business and deflected from its core of insurance.
As a result Lgen share price has been flat/lower over 5 yrs (dividends apart) and needs a shot in the arm that a new strategy can bring.

Discussion for Lgen board really.

[1jat] 28/4/2024 11:41

Robbob - I think you are right about the “new” LGEN strategy.
The asset creation (building companies) should be for the chop (the prefab business is closing and the CALA business should be sold….IMO insurers should be investors, it creates an artificial conflict of interest when they are also creating the investments for their funds….overpay and the building profit comes out of the insurance fund.
The previous CEO was big on stakeholder capitalism…which possibly got them ahead of the pack for a while on ESG type issues but led them astray from the core business.

The disappointing response to the 2023 results was possibly because no BB was announced despite there being plenty of capital. The CEO maybe wanted to hold back to make a bigger splash at his markets day.
Expect additional focus on DP annuity deals in UK and US and a BB. In normal times that would boost the SP, but we have fickle markets who may say not enough for me and sell it down further.

[1robbob] 28/4/2024 11:23

I would like to return to a 'conversation' I opened a month ago.
ie the relationship between AV and LGEN

Until recently my exposure to the Insurance sector has been 95% AV-5% M&G

I am now thinking that as AV has been brought back to the living by AB and has secured near parity in Market Cap and a 1.5% yield premium to LGEN that the latter is becoming increasingly interesting

I am wary that as the GI Sector has become increasingly profitable over the last couple of years. This will inevitbly attract new players and pressure on rates

Also, I have long feared that AB will only serve a 5 year term, so she is near to the exit door and that the Market will not take that well

On the 12th June the new CEO at LGEN will be laying out his strategy at thir Capital Markets Day. I strongly suspect that he may to some extent adopt ABs 'Playbook' ie Business simplification, Asset Sales, Share Buybacks and Dividend growth