Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 16/11/2023 11:26

Much as expected, steady as she goes - much more likely to gradually move up on a path free of overbought scrambles by frenetic traders

[uppompeii] 16/11/2023 10:19

But a nice special feels better.

[careful] 16/11/2023 10:01

I thought buy backs were a scam to enable directors to have more share options granted, whilst at the same time not increasing the shares in circulation.

Always ask the simple question, 'What should we do as directors to enrich ourselves'.

[waterloo01] 16/11/2023 09:55

Indeed, although a nice 'problem' to have, beats the hell out of debating where the next dilution is coming from. IF inflation has peaked, the divi return, let alone specials et al, is very welcome.

[muscletrade] 16/11/2023 09:44

Surely not another three day debate on the merits/demerits of share buybacks!!

[yump] 16/11/2023 09:34

Surely buy backs are not that complicated.

If you already own shares and the buyback shares are cancelled, the dividend per share rises and the earnings per share rises. If the share price stays the same, then the rating has dropped and you just benefit from the extra dividend. If the rating stays the same, the share price will rise a bit and you get some capital gain. If the rating rises a bit you get extra dividend and 2 bits of capital gain.

[fenners66] 16/11/2023 09:32

eightwonder - "slightly disingenuous" is slightly disingenuous - as 1robbob puts it "totally disingenuous" is more like it !

As for actually valuing a company as highly just because it has depleted its balance sheet of cash - or worse has incurred more debt and therefore interest just so it can try and engineer an increase in EPS (all other things being equal - which they never are) that is debatable.

Sure any given day when they are the buyer of last resort .... but the day after ?

[1robbob] 16/11/2023 09:31

Andyble

I take 'sustainable' to be code for dividend increases rather than Special Dividends

[careful] 16/11/2023 09:26

I suppose if divi is 8% and cost of capital is less it makes sense to buy back shares with surplus cash if the price is right.

Very cheap on fundamentals probably because of the London factor.
Should be well north of 500p.

[smurfy2001] 16/11/2023 09:26

Hotel chocolat bought for 170% premium.

“The huge, 170%, premium which Mars is prepared to pay for Hotel Chocolat suggests the stock market had rather undervalued the business.”

I hope a potential buyer is licking their lips at the results today.

[andyble] 16/11/2023 09:15

I thought the differences in those undisc/disc COR numbers over the two periods was also interesting, shows what higher interest rates are doing to GI margins now.

I do not think I have seen Aviva themselves boldly include the value word "sustainable" before eg "further regular and sustainable returns of surplus capital".

[1robbob] 16/11/2023 08:50

eighthwonder
Yes you are totally correct. I do agree that it is totally disingenuous

But don't forget that it is part of the dividend growth strategy of AB.
The total dividend pot is intended to grow by low single digits each year PLUS the additional effect of less shares in issue. Giving us a reasonable expectation of 7%(ish) dividend growth pa

[eigthwonder] 16/11/2023 08:28

I’ve just used that as a catch all for lolly coming our way in excess of core dividends. The statement doesn’t say special dividends, but it doesn’t say buy backs either.

[1robbob] 16/11/2023 08:18

Steady as we go
Update adequate but unexciting...as expected

eigthwonder
Where did you get special dividends from??!!
Share Buyback of circa £300m yes...Special Dividend(s) highly unlikely

cjac
Agreed. I think AB is keeping her powder dry just in case a boading party arrives

Makinbuks
You have it bang on

[makinbuks] 16/11/2023 08:17

Deleveraging complete. Surely increases the prospect of further share buy backs which will enhance the dividend further. and as rates fall in this next phase of the cycle that yield is going to be more highly rated

[tuftymatt] 16/11/2023 08:11

Yes very pleased with the figures today.

Keep holding and picking up that solid divi + adding on dips.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[eigthwonder] 16/11/2023 08:09

c8% yield growing at about forecast CPI (ie holding up in real terms) plus special dividends. Sounds OK

[samenic] 16/11/2023 07:58

High divi throwing off cash,whats not to like.........

[muscletrade] 16/11/2023 07:45

Aviva expects to deliver cost savings ahead of schedule
Published: 07:24 16 Nov 2023
Aviva PLC -
Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) was in confident mood as it said it would deliver cost savings a year ahead of schedule and beat medium-term financial targets.

In a third-quarter trading update, the FTSE 100-listed insurer said General Insurance gross written premiums (GWP) rose 13% at constant currency to £8.0 billion, with UK&I GWP up 15% and Canadian GWP up 11% at constant currency, both driven by strong rate, new business volumes and retention.

The group undiscounted combined operating ratio (COR) was 96.3%, up from 94.2% a year ago, reflecting the impact of third-quarter wildfires and other adverse weather in Canada, offset by continued rate increases and disciplined underwriting.

Protection & Health sales were up 23% with strong growth in Individual Protection and in Health, which was supported by higher corporate new business.

Amanda Blanc, chief executive, said: “Aviva's prospects are very positive. We expect to beat our medium-term financial targets and, in line with previous guidance, grow operating profit by 5-7% this year, despite higher weather-related claims.”

Aviva said it expects to beat its own funds generation (£1.5 billion p.a. by 2024) and cash remittances (more than £5.4 billion cumulative 2022-24) targets, and to deliver its target of £750 million gross cost reduction by 2024 one year early.

It continues to anticipate further regular and sustainable returns of surplus capital.

Blanc said: “Aviva has delivered nine months of strong growth. We have clear trading momentum, driven by our uniquely diversified business, as well as our leading positions in growing markets.”

[cjac39] 16/11/2023 07:38

solid results for sure. its interesting how larger cos seem to struggle to keep the cors low. i do wonder whether size, and a primary only focus, competes away any ability to price gi at better margins. its a shame wba is no longer here.

i also hadnt clocked only 30% of sh assets are corps. might dig into that a bit more.

capital light is clearly the mantra of the day. i guess thats natural with a massive heritage biz that squashes shareholder s2 roc but isnt the nirvana they think unless your admin is super slick which btw it isnt.

i cant help but conclude someone should break up av after mng will be broken up. sotp is clearly something starting with a 6 and despite AB being really good they wont ever get there despite how many times they write capital light in their results

[tourist2020] 16/11/2023 07:35

I am not confident the market will like this Trading Update.

Weather related hits to the GI business, 2bn outflows at AI plus deteriorating VNB as a % of new sales - that´s if investors pay attention to VNB.

Lets see, hope I am wrong (usually am!).

[pete160] 16/11/2023 07:28

Seems to be that 'it's all good and the plan is working', which probably means that the market will mark it down at the opening :-)

[tornado12] 16/11/2023 07:14

Seems pretty much as expected IMO..... Good solid performance with focus on the SH returns will do me GLA

[garycook] 16/11/2023 07:13

I like this Statement.Our 2023 guidance for 5-7% growth in operating profit(7) from GBP1,350m in 2022 remains unchanged, subject to normalised weather conditions for the remainder of the year.

-- We remain committed to delivering for shareholders. Consistent with previous guidance, we expect to pay a total dividend of c.GBP915m or c.33.4p for 2023, with low-to-mid single-digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend thereafter.

-- Under our capital framework, which remains unchanged, surplus capital is available for reinvestment in the business, bolt-on M&A and/or additional returns to shareholders. We continue to anticipate further regular and sustainable returns of surplus capital.

[coxsmn] 16/11/2023 07:11

results still hit it out of the park despite impact of wildfires and floods