Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 13/3/2023 11:54

Market crashes come out of the blue.

They remind of those cartoons where someone rides his bike over the edge of a cliff, carries on peddling, but does not fall until he realises there is nothing holding him up.

It would appear that QE can only work for a while, wealth and economic active cannot be permanently created by printing money.

It happened in pre war Germany,Argentina and Zimbabwe.
I seems to work for a while, but then economic reality returns.

2m million Zimbabwe dollars would have bought a decent farm at one time.
In time it would buy a loaf of bread.

Hyper inflation and 50% unemployment, this combination of a dead economy and high inflation, it happened here in the 1970's.

[1robbob] 13/3/2023 11:36

Eurofox we are ok

Once again the Regulators have come up short, and on the most fundimental of Banking practices that being not to finance long term lending with short term deposits!!

Mind you the BoE financed its £800bn QE disaster with loans from the Treasury at LIBOR!!!...currently costing US £150bn in losses which will continue for years to come
Thats more than the cost of HS2

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 11:26

Whatever is being done by institutions and investors (some of whom will be shareholders in banks that are failing or under pressure right now and won't be rescued) is probably driven by short-term liquidity problems.

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 11:21

Don't disagree rob, don't shoot the messenger.

[1robbob] 13/3/2023 11:14

Pension Funds buying 'shorts' is absolutely nuts.
Their liabilities are decades into the future, a long time after the 'shorts' have matured
Another example of funding long term liabilities with short term assets

I strongly suspect that we are now in a persistant 5%+ inflationary environment.
So Equities are the only appropriate long term investment

[muscletrade] 13/3/2023 11:10

First Republican the US under extreme pressure and well and truly in the cross hairs at the moment so it's going to be an interesting open at 1430.

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 10:55

These shares may have more downside because, as I said above, I imagine lots of insurance/pension/bank investors are piling out of equities and long dated gilts into gilts with 0-15 year maturity. Gilts market is on fire this morning.

[milliecusto] 13/3/2023 10:46

Think you hit the buy button too soon

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 10:15

I imagine lots of insurance/pension/bank investors are piling out of equities and long dated gilts into gilts with 0-15 year maturity. Gilts market is on fire this morning.

Still way above my average price here and in LGEN, MNG and PHNX.

[careful] 13/3/2023 09:44

Central bankers boxed in this time.
Inflation on the warpath, out of ammo, system needs baling out.

Things look grim, we have been use to creating this illusion of wealth by pushing money around whilst loafing around doing nothing.
A perpetual wealth creation machine, but an illusion.

It is just about to be taken off us again it would seem.

I am lucky, I pay my wife £100k per annum for doing the housework, and she pays me £100k for looking after our money.
That is an income of £200k.

Clever? It is about the level of the average investors wealth dream.

[dope007] 13/3/2023 09:35

Just picked some up I'm my ISA for a long term hold and collect the dividends

[smurfy2001] 13/3/2023 09:31

CPI figures on Tuesday.

[cyberian] 13/3/2023 09:25

There will be a change of tactics by US FED with talk of no interest rate hike at their month end meeting or at the minimum 25BP only. Pressure on First Republic Bank in SanFran unsettled the market but the FED and JP Morgan have stepped in with a liquidity package of $70 billion so that should help calm the waters a bit. Again the FED and others now need to take measures to calm the markets...await for positive and much needed action soon.
Getting ready on the BUY button but will hold off maybe a day or two.

[topazfrenzy] 13/3/2023 08:54

The good thing is that the buyback could take place at a lower share price lol

[topazfrenzy] 13/3/2023 08:54

Had to dump a few this morning, a credit event would take insurers and banks down ... the share price in any case

[skinny] 13/3/2023 08:43

The yield just above 7% at current price.

[masurenguy] 13/3/2023 08:28

She should be minding the shop not hanging out on a desert island!

[cerrito] 13/3/2023 08:24

Our CEO is on Desert Island Discs this week and I thought she came over well

[muscletrade] 13/3/2023 08:15

@euro, it would seem that your view is well supported.Up until Friday it was odds on that the fed would increase interest rates in next meeting by 50bps. that is now down to 25bps and Goldman Sachs are saying there will be no increase.

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 07:56

The main lesson out of this is that inflation behavior can not be changed as fast as the central banks would like - it takes time for firms, banks and people to adjust given all the complex interactions involved. Over-aggressive interest rate rises do not give enough time and need to be done in a more gentle manner over a longer period of time (especially so that it becomes boring to interest rate speculators).

[muscletrade] 13/3/2023 07:44

I doubt it but who knows. The important thing is that UK SVB is no longer a problem. The parent company crisis could have been averted if it had been handled better.

[eurofox] 13/3/2023 07:27

China behind that?

[muscletrade] 13/3/2023 07:19

HSBC buys uk SVB

[muscletrade] 13/3/2023 07:13

Barclays Capital shaved its price target for the stock to 545p from 560p