Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 14/10/2022 20:54

Spud.

My MSFT now testing $228. Down from highs of $350. Trying to find merits of buybacks now too. :)

[diarybeach] 14/10/2022 20:30

Oggy

Do you mean 395?

Price didn’t get close to 375 on Wed

[tuftymatt] 14/10/2022 14:30

Yeah it's all turned south again 😩

[eurofox] 14/10/2022 14:26

As expected, wall street pump and dump(now and Monday)

[oggyrocks] 14/10/2022 06:37

Topped up yesterday at 375. Now have far too many of these for my own sanity.

Let’s hope the government sorts out its self inflicted mess and some sort of stability returns here.

Should be a good day today. Markets looking up strongly 😀😀😀

[muscletrade] 14/10/2022 05:14

Thursday was ‘one of the craziest days of my career’ in markets, says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder

Rieder added that the problem with the strong dollar is “it creates stresses in other regions” and these complications in turn create problems for the U.S.

“The risk to the U.S. economy is the U.K., Europe and China,” Rieder said.

In addition to boosting the value of the dollar with its interest rate hikes, the Fed is engineering a global dollar shortage “and the pressure that puts on other economies is really intense.”

Rieder added in comments before the interview that some of the crazy swings seen in markets were being driven by trading in short-term options.

[whatsup32] 13/10/2022 20:35

Eurofox.
I’m in the States now and listening to business news on radio they can’t make head or tails of it either. Opening 2.5% down on dismal inflation figures then a 180 to close 2.8% up .

You mentioned dollar supremacy, I would imagine there are some US companies planning cheap buys around the world

[eurofox] 13/10/2022 19:26

Wall Street on it's latest pump and dump mission

[geckotheglorious] 13/10/2022 16:19

Cjac,

Am well aware of that - which is why the music has been allowed to continue for so long - the offsetting argument. Some banks will be consistently on the wrong side of the trade though! And be sunk.

Also I didnt claim the gross size of the derivatives book was representative of such. I merely point out that the "problem" of GFC is even larger now than it was back then. Derivative positions are far larger, both in gross(and net terms) for many financial institutions - and if this Pension Fund problem doesn't make you wonder then I'm shocked.

The leverage problem has been magnified because everyone has been pushed down the risk curve in their search for a "reasonable yield/return" and many have certainly geared up whilst doing so!

14 years of almost zero interest rates has consequences.

Increased Leverage and indebtedness are such.

[cjac39] 13/10/2022 16:12

gecko im not going to reply in full but I would politely point that out that the gross size of a derivatives book is not a representative measure of either risk or leverage. most derivatives are offsetting positions rather than outright risk. if a bank topically hedges a pension fund with a real rate or inflation swap they don't just sit there. they offset equally with another counterparty. your alarmist figures are gross exposures not net and therefore roughly speaking irrelevant.

this sort of reporting misses the point about what is leverage and what isn't and hence some of the issues in 08.

[eurofox] 13/10/2022 16:11

Spud - is this thread falling apart again?

[geckotheglorious] 13/10/2022 16:10

tried and tested
Post 14798
"sounds like a hint of desperation from Grecko"

zzzzz bore off you fanny.

Filtered.

Long Aviva FYI

[yf23_1] 13/10/2022 15:45

I thought this LDI was a liquidity problem (long gain v short coverage) and not leveraging, more a hedging of long term liabilities.
Surely the pension fund managers would not be allowed to 'speculate' rather than hedge ?

[tried and tested] 13/10/2022 15:20

sounds like a hint of desperation from Grecko

[marksp2011] 13/10/2022 13:43

The issue for me is that Govt Stats are so poor that we are seeing policy decisions being made on monthly data that could be very wrong

Anthony barber famously stimulated an economy that was in recession that when they had done the monthly revisions to the previous SEVEN years of data proved to be growing at 1.5%. End of that was a calamity and 20% inflation.


Changing rates gradually gets a measured response. Raising them by 0.75 or 1% a month brings the world to a dead stop as noone knows when it will end or what borrowing costs will be. I am seeing big projects slowing down until all this subsides and clients know where they are.

I think el-erian called it "hitting the windscreen"

[eurofox] 13/10/2022 13:39

... "depending upon Baileys next screw up" ... I'm relying on it

[muscletrade] 13/10/2022 13:17

Sterling and uk financials still in the blue after the hot Us inflation data while really they should have weakened as the fed are clearly going to have to stick to raising rates for the foreseeable leaving the the hapless BOE even more behind the curve in the fight against inflation. I expect even more stress over the next week depending upon Baileys next screw up and if the Gov sticks to the mini budget, as right now the market is suggesting that the Gov will back down,

[muscletrade] 13/10/2022 12:50

Meanwhile the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq fall heavily to new 2022 lows...talk about whipsawing!!!

[cjac39] 13/10/2022 12:49

at the margin whatsup. this business sits in with the retail platform etc and is a good business for aviva but overall not material and some pension accumulation is fixed by employers anyway I thought

[muscletrade] 13/10/2022 12:45

The spike in financials and sterling due to rumours that the gov will U turn on Mini budget. Just in time for the bad news at 1330hrs that inflation in US hotter than expected.

[whatsup32] 13/10/2022 12:35

Cjac.
Is it not true workers will make less contribution to their pension scheme( matched by companies) when their income is insufficient to meet their daily demands.
Will this not be negative for Av.if it's done large scale.

[bothdavis] 13/10/2022 12:30

Nikhil Rathi Chief Executive of the City regulator sais, ' the pension fund crisis could not have been forseen despite concerns about derivatives that schemes are exposed to. Turmoil in the bond market was 'beyond any historical precedent.''

[cjac39] 13/10/2022 12:15

just my opinion of course