Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[mountpleasant] 12/5/2022 13:22

Tomorrow is the date for the capital return, the record date, right?

[muscletrade] 12/5/2022 13:19

From Aviva investor relations Div policy "Estimated c.40% increase in 2022 dividend per share to c.31.5p (based on illustrative share consolidation)"

[rongetsrich] 12/5/2022 13:03

In the circular it states that that would have happened in the days preceding the GM.I'm sure there would be a legal challenge if that now was not followed, or maybe a new vote and hence a delay.If you look back someone did post the exact line.

[last of the mohicans] 12/5/2022 12:25

To put it in context, there are currently 3,687,321,923 shares in issue.

Now I know everyone's holdings won't be divisible by the new ratio number & therefore the number of shares issued will be less than this number, but for ease of calculation, lets assume everything divides simply.

If the ratio is 76 then there will be 2,802,364,661 shares in issue after the return of capital.

If the ratio is 74 then there will be 2,728,618,223 shares in issue.

That's a difference of close to 73.75M shares, which is a significant number.

The lower number of shares in issue if you do the maths means the dividend per share for 2022 would rise by 0.83 pence per share.

LOTM

[spud] 12/5/2022 12:06

LOTM

The one thing I've learnt is to expect the unexpected, so yes, if it remains here or lower, I think we'll be disappointed (again).

spud

[eurofox] 12/5/2022 12:00

I got shot down for having similar thoughts, but we'll see soon enough

[last of the mohicans] 12/5/2022 11:57

I know I've never posted on any AV. thread before, but given the drop in the share price in the last few days, I'm predicting that there going to change the conversion ratio if the share price stays around this 395/396 level to 74 per 100 instead of 76.

Anyone else in agreement with me or do you all think it will stay at 76 ?

LOTM

[eurofox] 12/5/2022 11:31

I have been pondering this whole arrangement. If a predator were looking for an acquisition of Aviva and that were done with today’s shares in circulation, and it was priced at say £6 per share, then by waiting until after the consolidation they would have a quarter (roughly) shares less to acquire at that price, because the company would have removed that quarter from the market at a much lower price by Monday. Neat.

[pvi1] 12/5/2022 11:24

Same, but I could only spare another 3k. Hopefully it'll be even lower once the divi and B share money arrives.

[eurofox] 12/5/2022 11:20

can't believe adding at 395, but hey ho, probably a lot more to go

[geckotheglorious] 12/5/2022 10:38

Spud,

Post 13290

Agreed.
Epitomises how pathetic our societies have become.

What happened to "SticksnStones"

People really are spineless and offence seeking these days. It's pathetic.

I find myself muttering "Grow a pair you fanny" frequently.

[muscletrade] 12/5/2022 10:20

Good grief, the changes are supposed to free up excess capital for investment not increase reserve requirements.

[cjac39] 12/5/2022 10:01

1rob thats a complicated question as its unknown how they implement this. some people think its 60% reduction in risk margin and a 7bps deduction from matching adjustment yield. talking aviva the rm is 2.7bln (life and pensions) but the tmtp is 2.5bln. so the net of the two is slightly positive so most of the cut in risk margin falls to a reduced tmtp. in the MA portfolio a 7bps reduction in yield is a cost of 745mln so overall this would be bad vs capital and new assets would absorb more. as the tmtp runsoff the benefit grows as the risk margin benefit is still there in the main.

the biggest loser by some distance would be L&G as they have the largest MA across all insurers and it would cost them 1.7bln if they reduced their MA yield by 7bps....

[p0pper] 12/5/2022 09:36

Spud, agree entirely if that is all that was said, but sadly in todays VERY PC world we are not allowed to say much any more, so much for free speech.

[spcecks] 12/5/2022 09:29

p0pper,yes bought some this morning

[klotzak] 12/5/2022 08:49

Yes Pete, the thing is in any center of excellence there's a bad penny or two.ISIS/ ISIL has a significant proportion of doctors/ solicitors who should know better.It's like whack a mole, you'll never beat them.

[eurofox] 12/5/2022 08:32

p0pper, yes

[p0pper] 12/5/2022 08:11

Anyone buying at these levels?

[klotzak] 12/5/2022 08:10

Pete, check the Aviva site, it gets a mention on there.

[klotzak] 12/5/2022 08:09

Wrong word. I meant discount. The lower this share goes the better for the time being.Every share is going to pay out 30p. I want to buy as low as possible. Growth is a secondary for me, although I am sure it will rise over the next couple of years.

[1robbob] 12/5/2022 07:53

cjac

Are you saying that the net result would be a freeing up in the types of investment that can be made ie higher return Infrastucture investment with net no release of Capital

So an inceease in eps and possible increase in capital requirement.

If this is correct could you give us a steer on the potential impact for AV in both categories.

Thanks as ever

[1robbob] 12/5/2022 07:46

klotzac
...'but let’s just have that small pleasure of buying at at premium to the 76:100. Not too much to ask for!'

Premium to what?

If the share price post consolidation is less than 423.7p it will be at a discount to a 76% consolidation - ie 24% of 423.7 = 101.69 = cash return