Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 10/6/2021 08:47

agree with you totally muscletrade

[muscletrade] 10/6/2021 07:10

The Cevian figures are not a million miles from the figures that were discussed at considerable length on this board at the end of last November. In fact I think they pinched our analysis. Take the £ 5 Bln excess capital. That is exactly the figure we arrived at. Alalysts are saying £3.7 but that ignores the fact that Aviva were already holding excess capital before disposals. The possibility of more cash through lower capital requirEments is also worth considering. The Cevian valuation of £8 per share is ambitious and higher than what we discussed(personally I suggested that I would be happy with 6.50....but if Aviva can increase their costs redUction as suggested then why not...and three years to get to £8 is not unreasonable in my view. Are Cevian being overly ambitious, possibly. Are they ramping, I don't think so especially as the basis of their analysis is fairly familiar even to us private investors on here who have been paying attention.

[careful] 09/6/2021 21:11

I am invested in Aviva, happy with it.

But I pay little attention to these pump and dump clowns who take a significant position then try to ramp shares up with stupidly high valuations.

A 20% upside prediction is not enough to get publicity these days.
They talk such rubbish.

I saw an idiot justifying Bitcoins $1 trillion valuation a few weeks ago.
He said Bitcoin would be less volatile when it was value reached $10 trillion.
What an idiot. $10 trillion for a small share of a ten- a- penny computer programme.

Ignore these professional rampers.

[1robbob] 09/6/2021 20:50

What if Cevian carry on buying?

There is still a huge upside vis a vis their 800p valuation !! They can't have many other investments with a near 100% upside

[1robbob] 09/6/2021 20:50

What if Cevisn carry on buying?

There is still a huge upside vis a vis their 800p valuation !! They can't have many other investments with a near 100% upside

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 18:08

Just can’t sit on cash , bought on impulse today . Couldn’t decide between RR, IAG, GSK and Av.

Went for the safe option

[smurfy2001] 09/6/2021 17:36

An activist investor would have been very useful at Aviva for most of the insurer’s 20-odd years of existence, frustrated shareholders will feel. Outside the banking sector, it’s hard to think of a major UK financial services company that has disappointed its investors so often, or showered such large rewards for failure on its chief executives. The share price is less than half what it was at the time of formation via a three-way merger at the turn of century.

[mountpleasant] 09/6/2021 15:36

That was me topping up

[action] 09/6/2021 15:22

60k purchase at 415.48p gone through

[richie1218] 09/6/2021 14:12

Banks tested on climate crisis risks

Britain's banks and insurers will be tested on how well-prepared they are to cope with climate change emergencies.

The Bank of England will examine the risks rising temperatures and sea levels could pose for the UK's big banks and insurers.

It will put 19 firms through stress tests involving three climate scenarios projected over the next 30 years.

The Bank said the tests will help it "understand the risks presented by climate change" to the economy.

Banks will be tested for the first time and assessed on their credit books.

They were due to be tested last year but the Bank of England put the process on hold during the pandemic.

Insurers will be assessed on the risks to their assets and liabilities, but were tested last year.

"This is the first time we are testing both banks and insurers to allow us to capture interactions between them," the Bank said.

"The end result will be more robust management of climate related financial risks across the sector," said Andrew Bailey the Governor of the Bank of England.

It will examine banks such as Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Nationwide, NatWest, Santander UK and Standard Chartered as well as insurers including Aviva, Legal & General, Direct Line, and Scottish Widows.

The results of the tests will be published by May 2022 although the Bank said it will release only aggregate results and not identify individual businesses.

[rcturner2] 09/6/2021 12:30

The PE is low relative to some other shares because it is a very mature business without a lot of scope for organic growth.

[1robbob] 09/6/2021 12:26

salver2 and scrwal
The problem with p/e ratios for Insurance Companies is the opaque world of Reserves and Provisions.
With Companies stashing away funds in the good years and bringing them back in the poorer years. Nobody outside the Company knows the 'real' earings profile
Add in the potential for Govenmental and Regulatory interference
Hence the Market severely discounts the p/e ratio

[scrwal] 09/6/2021 12:11

It seems to me there is a disconnect with eps , the pe and the share price. I don't know what eps is being used since the 2020 Accounts had a continuing operations diluted eps of 47.8p - this included France ,Italy and Poland.

In post 8036 I did a very simplistic calculation and arrived at a continuing eps after taking out all the businesses to be sold of 34.4p. The £7bn cash pot was 177p per share. So the value depends on what the pe ratio is for the trimmed down business.

[salver2] 09/6/2021 11:42

What bemuses me is how this share is on a pe of less than 8 even with all the interest /this should be 6 pounds already-no wonder the activists think it’s worth 8 pounds in 3 years !

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 11:36

For some reason my short term trades end up long time investments :)

[cyberian] 09/6/2021 10:41

Eurofox....agree your comment. At the very least Aviva should now be re-rated to match it's peers at minimum. CEO is on the right track and expect her to avoid any hiccups as evidenced by her moves to date...I remain impressed. The stake declared yesterday is positive and somewhat bemused by some comments in the press that followed.Only surprised that a number of other parties had not moved earlier. Like a number of posters here the forward value seemed obvious.

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 10:12

.5% stamp , spread and cost of deal. You'll need 1% gain before you make any profit. Not easy with Aviva

Daytraders may be better of with IAG as an example where there is no stamp duty

[eurofox] 09/6/2021 09:36

It's much simpler, a lot of yesterdays buying was trigger happy margined day traders without the ability to avoid stop-losses (or rub two pennies together) being taken out - easy to just drop the bid to create self-feeding negative momentum - just noise in the scheme of things.

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 09:30

FT article auto insurance make record profits but is expecting 2021 to be more difficult.

[spawny100] 09/6/2021 09:24

Mng lgn both down same %

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 09:04

Near 2% drop . Anyone know why ?

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 08:56

Not sure what caused drop from 418 to 416 . Bought in at 417.4 .

Had I waited another minute could have bought 2p cheaper :)

[spawny100] 09/6/2021 08:15

A lot of buying though. Will move up imo.

[whatsup32] 09/6/2021 08:13

Surprised with a lowly start to today. Expected positive start