Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cassini] 30/4/2021 14:27

There's always gold of course.

No doubt in a deflationary bust gold would go down too at least at first as real assets are sold off to escape margin debt etc.

However, in the end it is a real and unperishable commodity (albeit with some unusual economic properties - and let's not forget heavy and shiny ;0), so with 5000 years of history behind it, it isn't going to be such a concern as perhaps crypto.

I bought some gold back in 2007 and it has returned over 8%/annum over that period on average, last time I looked.

I think it has a place in anyone's portfolio. I also think gold's time has not yet come, despite the appreciation over the last 17 years. It tends to do best under conditions of negative real interest rates, a condition I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot more of.

[rcturner2] 30/4/2021 13:58

My opinion is that crypto is just froth same as people buying wine or classic cars. Since it is a traded closed system there are no losses as such, it is just moving money around from A to B.

Bonds however are a different kettle of fish and bonds blowing up will have major consequences.

[whatsup32] 30/4/2021 13:49

Jim.

How do we protect ourselves from that scenario.

[jimbox1] 30/4/2021 13:41

When the Cryptos crash, there will be mighty wealth destruction.
If it coincides with the bursting of the Bond Bubble (a likely scenario, I think) there will be a slump to rival 1929. Just my view, Whatsup32.

[whatsup32] 30/4/2021 12:18

I just don’t understand Bitcoin . Cant see it, touch it, feel it.

[spud] 30/4/2021 12:11

Don't think it will. I'm relatively heavily into Crypto (having accumulated Litecoin from circa £10 and upwards) and have a £1k PT by 2025.

spud

[whatsup32] 30/4/2021 12:07

Fool.com is not really a worthy source for insightful articles . Having said that quite content to hold Aviva in this uncertain times.

Question for all . If Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme and it does collapse how will it effect markets ?

[spud] 30/4/2021 11:56

The Aviva share price is up 20% in 2021. Should I buy some more?
Alan Oscroft | Thursday, 29th April, 2021



I’ve so far spent 2021 mostly ignoring the shares I already own, and that includes Aviva (LSE: AV). I’m far more interested in the stocks I don’t own but might want to buy in the coming months. Anyway, what’s been happening to the Aviva share price? Well, it looks like it’s up 23% since the start of the year. And yes, I really have only just had a look. Am I neglectful, taking my eye off my share prices? If I’m not thinking of buying or selling Aviva, why should I care?

Since mid-February 2020, before the Covid catastrophe hit, Aviva shares are down 5%. But Aviva has declared a dividend of 21p per share for 2020. Based on the Aviva share price at the start of last year, that’s a 5% yield, wiping out share price drop. I’d say its shareholders had a pretty good year.

And if you click here we’ll show you something that could be key to unlocking 5G’s full potential...
Looking back also reinforces for me the danger of selling out when a stock is severely hammered. Aviva collapsed a fair bit harder than the FTSE 100 in general. Those selling during the depths of the crisis suffered a loss of up to 45% at one point — a loss they would have already recovered had they held.

Aviva share price future

But I can understand the sentiment. I mean, pandemic, economic collapse, stock market crash… the whole financial sector was sure to be plunged into ruin, yes? Well, actually, no. Banking shares are still down, but the banks are coming back. Even hard-pressed Lloyds Banking Group has just released upbeat figures for the first quarter of 2021. And insurance?

Judging by Aviva’s 2020 results, released in March, it’s hard to find much impact from the crisis. Operating profit fell by less than 1% from 2019. And profit stated in IFRS terms was actually up. There was no immediate positive sentiment towards the Aviva share price as a result. But then, Aviva has been battling structural problems, which take longer to sort out.

So what about the outlook for its transformation efforts? After the sale of Aviva France, the company revealed plans to dispose of Aviva Italy in 2021. On completion, it expects to see its excess capital boosted by around £3bn. All the usual liquidity ratios look fine, and progress on debt reduction was strong in 2020.

Long-term problems sorted?

I might sound like I’m painting a glowing picture of the firm here. But I definitely don’t want to downplay the negatives. The Aviva share price is still down 11% over the past 10 years. That’s when the Footsie as a whole gained 15%. The main reason seems to be an institutional view that Aviva had become something of a bloated and slow-moving monster. Some were even calling for a break-up of the company as a way to enhance shareholder value.

And I have to remind myself that, even if I’m looking through optimistic eyes, I’m still sitting on a share price loss since I bought. I do have some decent years of dividends to compensate, mind. The bottom line for me? On 2020 earnings, the current Aviva share price represents a trailing P/E of less than six. I still rate it a buy for me.

spud

[makinbuks] 30/4/2021 08:06

I added at £3.74 expecting £1 special dividend plus £1 appreciation, perhaps not by the end of the year but middle of next

[spud] 29/4/2021 19:44

If the Market can't even value this accurately, what hope do other FT100 stocks have??spud

[carpingtris] 29/4/2021 19:20

600p brought out? ;) can hope!

[father jack1] 29/4/2021 18:45

So, with a third of the year gone, where do we think this will end the year? My guess is 440p, assuming no killer variant comes along.

[anthony100] 28/4/2021 20:04

Hard to bottom put why the share price does not reflect what the posters to this Board c9nsider articles of faith.

Aviva is a very small component of the Index so being a tad under or over does not move the performance dial for closet tracking managers.

Normally one would expect the wheel of fashion to benefit the insurance sector by now but only the Pru adding back m&g is back to previous highs.

Presumably a tender offer would flush out a tail of barely willing holders and disgorge excess cash.

With sterling so low and with Aviva with good market shares in UK and Canada let's all light a candle and hope for a bid.

[1robbob] 28/4/2021 09:54

I see that BP yesterday to much fanfare announced the re-starting of their share buy-backs

BP proposes to Buy-back £360m of equity in one quarter. This represents a mere 0.6% of BPs outstanding equity and 3 days average trading volume.

3 days trading volume for AV would be circa £100m
This puts the task facing AB in perspective and further emphasises that Share Buy-Backs offer a very limited option in returning capital to AV shareholders

[scobak] 27/4/2021 20:05

Plenty of attention indeed! They have fallen from the investable universe. If that is the level of thought and ability coming from the BOD then we are truly blessed by their early warning to avoid their company whether as customer or investor.

[makinbuks] 27/4/2021 16:37

No such thing as bad publicity and they're certainly getting plenty of attention

[geckotheglorious] 27/4/2021 12:42

Unfair to plonkers in my view Spud.
Very unfair.

[spud] 27/4/2021 11:25

Speaking to Sky News, Mr Bird defended the move, saying that it was "not a lot of money to develop the identity" and it would "enable better investments".

What a plonker!

spud

[ugandalad] 27/4/2021 11:22

How much did they pay for this bit of creativity?

[whatsup32] 27/4/2021 10:27

What difference does one letter make

[fenners66] 27/4/2021 10:06

Maybe he's doing a Maureen and looking for an early exit and a £20m payoff.

[geckotheglorious] 27/4/2021 10:03

The Scottish asset manager said the new name was pronounced "Aberdeen" and would replace five brands including for all customer-facing businesses.
Chief executive Stephen Bird said the brand was "modern, dynamic and, most importantly, engaging".


“How do these deluded twits make it to such positions?”

[demi] 27/4/2021 09:38

Missed it whats happening?