Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[milliethedog] 27/5/2020 10:55

Me too euro. Hold & wait. Same with my BT & LGEN.

[eurofox] 27/5/2020 10:15

must be a bit of short covering going on here - however, my strategy now is to hold on to the core holding and not trade it again unless the price gets under my average of 239

[uppompeii] 27/5/2020 09:45

If youve been here as long as I have, it should be 8 quid at least!

[the stinger] 27/5/2020 09:20

Probs the most undervalued of insurers... needs to catch up and should be £3 now really, £4 when divi restated.

[chinese investor] 27/5/2020 09:08

All Good !

[the stinger] 27/5/2020 08:35

Slow rise to £3.... to start

[imagining] 27/5/2020 08:04

Buywell that sounds a bit pessimistic. Incidentally,what's the latest on the old swine flu?

[buywell3] 26/5/2020 23:31

First a song that seems fitting in these worrying times




buywell has been looking at what might be coming down the road over the next 6 to 9 months. IMO it gives rise to some concern re lockdowns being relaxed .

Covid-19 case numbers are still running at circa 100K a day worldwide after hitting the worst ever number of 106k since the outbreak started less than a week ago.

Clearly Covid-19 Wave 1 is not yet over

USA daily case numbers are running at circa 20K a day , it is not yet over there also.

Latin America and India are now in crisis , Russia is around 9K cases a day and 6M cases by the end of this week looks a given. A Covid-19 kill rate of 6.66% will then equate to 400k deaths.

buywell is now of the opinion that this Wave 1 will most likely hit 10M cases by mid July .

Hopefully hot weather will then ease numbers downwards till the fall when it gets colder.

buywell expects numbers to begin to rise once more by the end of September in the absence of no vaccine peaking around Xmas/mid Jan 2021.

Now here comes the nasty bit

Just how high case numbers rise in Wave 2 will depend upon when or indeed lockdown Mk2 gets implemented by politicians. Some will some won't but buywell feels that the economic damage will be so great by say end of October/start November crunch time will have arrived.

Assuming that most by then in the absence of a vaccine will opt for the 'herd immunity' goal , which was attained in 3 waves in the last pandemic 1918/1919 in around 15 months , the politicos will roll the dice and Wave 2 will be a bad one as it was with Spanish Flu , 6 X the size of Wave 1.

Will Hospitals and Health Services cope ?

They just did in the UK , USA and EU . But whether they do next time depends upon Health Ministers and Governments preparing them over the next few months both with extra staff, extra ICU beds , extra ventilators and equipment that Wave 1 has indicated works best , and adequate PPE in quality and quantity.

The potential size of Wave 2 could be 60M people and 4 Million deaths

In the absence of a vaccine another Wave 3 could follow as per the Spanish Flu model , that thankfully should be the last as 'herd immunity' gets attained.

As long as SARS-COV-2 has not mutated into something worse in terms of its kill rate.

A vaccine has never been successfully made to date for any Coronavirus , the odds are therefore not good that one will be made this time. Plus the fact that there have been 3 distinct mutated strains in evidence in China , the EU and the USA , plus another 27 mutated strains to date also brings into prospect that current vaccines now in production ( yes they are assuming testing on humans is ok) works on the mutated strains killing humans in March 2021.

This is also why buywell believes the dice will be rolled for no more lockdowns by most countries ie the no vaccine scenario.

It is a UK fact that 'herd immunity' is the goal
Boris Johnson's Talk of 'Herd Immunity' Raises Alarms
www.courthousenews.com › boris-johnsons-talk-of-her...
Boris Johnson's Talk of 'Herd Immunity' Raises Alarms.

A last thought re those countries that do NOT want to do more Lockdowns.

These might include places like Australia, New Zealand , Taiwan and other island nations like those in the Pacific.

Whilst 'Herd Immunity' would have been attained by the greater part of the world at the cost of circa 100M cases in 3 Waves together with circa 6.66 Million deaths.

NO Herd Immunity will exist in those countries that locked down hard again.

Hence they will be sitting ducks when airplanes carrying the odd asymptomatic case of Covid-19 ( Covid carrier shows no symptoms) in the event of no vaccine roll out .



Plan and Prepare for the worst outcome/s is what Politicos should now be doing IMO


boris - Laura Doomsburg is out to get you

You need to get out a statement laying out your plans to rebuild the NHS to be fit for purpose in a world of Coronavirus Pandemics , SARS-COV-3 is coming.

All IMHO , dyor

[dr biotech] 26/5/2020 19:50

I was lucky, transferred my wife’s ISA from HL, they dragged their feet and the investments that couldn’t transfer were sold just before the crash. Also have a relatively large amount of cash. My ISA which has mostly remained invested is down 5% and my sipp 22%. 8% of my ISA was in BATM which has doubled, but I have a much reduced position there now.

Essentially we are back to were we were a year ago, but that includes salaries and expenditures so it’s not a great comparison. I don’t track it that closely.

[the stinger] 26/5/2020 19:42

Look at the chart since 2007, you will see patience required however when it decides to move it moves fast. The dividend will ultimately be the catalyst here to £3.50 / £4. Need to wait a few months for a possible 20p dividend... or more.

[whatsup32] 26/5/2020 19:28

I’m worst then you down about 45% from purchase about year and change ago.

[spcecks] 26/5/2020 19:04

I'm down about 35% from Jan as hold to much Av.and Lgen so you're doing much better than me Dr Biotec.

[dr biotech] 26/5/2020 17:09

Funny how a decent day changes your perception and outlook. Great day for financials today - AV/LLOY/LGEN etc - suddenly I feel everything is looking OK. Down day tomorrow and I'll start worrying about how much damage is permanent. Normally the outcome will be somewhere in between.

I've now regained almost exactly half of what I'm down this year, had one share double which has made some difference. Bit better than the FTSE, but still down 10% from Jan.

[eurofox] 26/5/2020 16:25

The dynamic has changed completely on this share. I have a feeling the lows have been banished. Time to keep core holdings intact for a good period.

[the stinger] 26/5/2020 16:12

Now the world is opening up and the damage can be seen this is a hold for 6 months and £3.50 to £4.

[wba1] 26/5/2020 16:05

I am a little surprised by the weak lift in the London prices today given the strength of the Dow which was signalled overnight by the implied open. And that comment also applies to Aviva. So I am less confident about short term rises as I cannot see the Dow surge continuing for long and the FTSE is unlikely to resist a wider correction.

But I am still very happy holding for the medium/longer term when the current pricing insanity will be corrected.

[the stinger] 26/5/2020 15:55

If it does break £2.50 we may not see under that for quite a while...

[the stinger] 26/5/2020 15:53

It's wanting to take the next leg up... past £2.50... just waiting game

[edmundshaw] 26/5/2020 15:50

Looking at the way the price collapsed from 400p simply because of COVID-19, there must be some chance it will just find its way back up there once this economic pause is over...

That is a massive upside. And still prospectively approaching an 8% yield... if it is not "rebased" as usual proximate to the appearance of a new CEO

[yf23_1] 26/5/2020 15:36

Is it about to break out ?

[cjac39] 26/5/2020 15:02

did anyone listen to agm / glean anything interesting. i logged on late and they were waffling on about esg

[whatsup32] 26/5/2020 14:41

Next week we would have had a nice 21p div

[the stinger] 26/5/2020 14:20

Is this the last chance at £2.47,,, will be interesting to look back at the chart in a few months time...however things here looking primed to test £3

[p0pper] 26/5/2020 13:37

Already said will review divi in Q4 so doesn't look like any divi this year.

[imagining] 26/5/2020 13:34

If they do a U-turn and re-instate the dividend, which was unnecessarily pulled,the share price would smartly move to 300p imo.In addition,several Brokers would increase their TP's.