Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 22/5/2020 10:00

you've just got to love those stop-losses trigger out-sized moves for ordinary punters in cash

[buywell3] 22/5/2020 09:22

IMO Choosing the right sector is key to investing

FTSE 350 Banks
-3.93%

FTSE 350 Life Assurance
-4.63%

[eurofox] 22/5/2020 08:05

added at 231.8

[buywell3] 22/5/2020 04:26

Shorting a FTSE 100 stock and moving the share price needs enormous firepower as you should know being a foxy persona

Nice of you to think buywell has that sort of ammo .

Valuations of assets need some thought V their worth in a deteriorating market
as does the amount of monies to be paid out V Covid-19 related claims which could last and go on for much longer than most companies won't want to talk about.

buywell has stated his target SP's on this thread

They have not changed , neither has the Covid-19 situation or African Swine fever situation.

Apart from both getting worse

buywell now adds USA/CHINA trade war which looks to get very bad in coming months
Worse as November elections approach

IMO dyor

[rndm355] 22/5/2020 00:08

Aviva covered here:

[cjac39] 21/5/2020 21:42

uppompeii - thats a nice expression ive not heard for a while. i dont think it applies here as post divi restart we will see some more swallows i think. but thankyou for reminding me of nice expression!

[uppompeii] 21/5/2020 21:00

Hmm. One swallow doesnt make a summer.

[gary1966] 21/5/2020 16:29

Aviva has actually performed well today when compared to LGEN.

[tornado12] 21/5/2020 16:15

Absolutely! That’s the reason we are here , regular dividend with yield > 5% at least. Reinstatement will be also chance for BOD to cut and reset vs actual SP, so could be another negative along the way. Of course I hope they reinstate to 2019 target!

[coxsmn] 21/5/2020 16:02

For many the biggest question is when will the dividend be re-instated.

[hotman2121] 21/5/2020 15:50

However, if we had a gripe with Aviva it's that the path future growth remains unclear. Despite all the restructuring the current set up still feels like a collection of well performing but disparate businesses. The ups and downs of the market and the economy will continue to batter the group, and could delay the return of the dividend for some time. Given the dividend suspension and relatively healthy capitalisation Aviva looks in pretty good shape to weather the storm, but we find it difficult to be enthusiastic about the long run.

[cjac39] 21/5/2020 14:45

ive come to the view that the insurers share registers are dominated by trackers so they get wrapped in those flows which are not good in UK plus I'm pretty sure that quant funds who account for majority of trading on exchanges nowadays treat insurers as levered asset companies rather than conducting any particular fundamental analysis of their value through a crisis. otherwise it is just inexplicable how the insurers trade with such a high beta when in most cases they have very little equity market exposure aside from in the asset mgmt businesses. whilst av is particularly poor you can read across similar negative outcomes to landg, mandg and even phoenix which is very low risk. when these companies prove they can easily afford to pay 8-12% dividends it will be hard to ignore their beaten up value.

[linton5] 21/5/2020 14:32

The ftse has come up 1100 from low aviva 26p you coudna make it up ffs 🚑

[wba1] 21/5/2020 14:10

cjac39;
I should have said that I have no personal experience of Culmer. When the fun was going on at RSA (2010-15) I was working mainly in Munich. My knowledge is limited to what came out at the time and a few conversations with people I knew at RSA. It all reminded me a bit of the earlier goings on at Independent, which led to that company's closure and the jailing of the CEO and other directors. Not suggesting there was a criminal offence in this case - just that the behaviour in underreserving was just as blatant and stupid.

[wba1] 21/5/2020 14:00

I will add some more for my long term pot but will look to get them a bit lower than at present (somewhere in the 220s) - not because I think Aviva should fall further but because I think the market recovery (in the UK and even more in the US) has got ahead of itself and some slippage is likely which will bring Aviva down with it (if it happens). If it does not happen I already have a fair size holding to ride a recovery. I may even add some to my trading pot if I can get in the 220s and look for a quick 5-10%. I know it seems odd to have 2 holdings in one share and treat them differently but I like to have a gamble as well as fund my retirement!
Coming back to Culmer - it could have been worse. They could have poached Tankie Snowball back from Sabre!

[eurofox] 21/5/2020 13:56

didn't think it would be fun again so soon. added at 236

[cjac39] 21/5/2020 13:42

i didnt really read any of it as new news. they've flagged the losses before: CAD$50 + UK£150mln so net £160 looks on the high side given they are making money in travel, motor. chucking money at charities to boost your esg rating is also pretty annoying when they skip on the divi. so i haven't changed my outlook that this is chronically undervalued and have averaged down so above 350 i can be a seller and be happy with the return made. i did hear the other day that they got close to selling the Asian business but deferred it because of brexit so maybe when the dust settles that comes back on the agenda. notwithstanding WBAs experience with the new chairman I'm of the view that installing a numbers guy who has never run a business as chairman is a retrograde step but maybe he will surprise on the upside.

[dbadvn] 21/5/2020 13:21

One significant feature of a good management is that they report the good and the bad in detail with no fear or favour. Generally the industry comes to recognise that and the share price responds accordingly. The industry leader who does this will affect the whole sector when they report (best example I can think of is Schlumberger in the oilfield sector ).

This management consistently fail on both counts. Basically they have no credence in the market so the share price does not react....

[dr biotech] 21/5/2020 12:34

Well I'd rather they underpromised and overdelivered. The economic outlook isn't great so I'm not blaming them on that point. But this seems to be priced for the worst, and todays update has seemingly done nothing to reverse that. I guess we just have to hang in there and be more patient...again.

[eurofox] 21/5/2020 12:17

added at 237.5

[tornado12] 21/5/2020 12:15

This board lacks optimism which is a key success ingredient and why their share price remains depressed in good or bad times. I remain a long termed hoping the divi will be reinstated next year to a reasonable return. But I don’t trust this BOD vs SH value. There could and should be challenged here moving to 2021 ..

[eurofox] 21/5/2020 12:15

I will if the price drops a bit more

[p0pper] 21/5/2020 12:12

wba1 and cjac39 would you be buyers after that update? tia