Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[phoenix1234] 10/7/2013 18:01

Avanti Communications is NOT investment grade material says Evil Knievil

[buywell2] 10/7/2013 17:52

Charts saw this coming way back as a mid year 2013 event.... but rampers have kept it from crashing back to earth ................................................. till now



The numbers now speak louder than they




buywell2
10 Oct'12 - 09:01 - 439 of 483 0 0 edit




Cost of rockets going up ?

Sky high ?


Too high to mention ?

[buywell2] 10/7/2013 17:33

Charts again you see .... they are very usefull tools for the savvy investor


buywell2
12 May'13 - 09:52 - 468 of 482 0 0 edit

Next leg down anyone ?

[buywell2] 10/7/2013 17:32

Charts again you see .... they are very usefull tools for the savvy investor

Even the timescale is spot on as the blue and red lines intersect

buywell2
12 May'13 - 09:52 - 468 of 482 0 0 edit

Next leg down anyone ?

[bobsidian] 10/7/2013 17:31

And Evil Knieval cast doom gloom and despondency on the prospects for HSV when it dove down to around the £1.40 level.

Now look at its share price.

[j777j] 10/7/2013 16:51

Is that why you have posted it twice on the same day?





Avanti Communications-Satellite Data Communication Services now Growing Revenue - AVN
it_trader - 10 Jul 2013 - 10:57:52 - 449 of 450
Sorry to paste this link ;(

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/1001/avanti-communications-is-not-investment-grade-material-says-evil-knievil

Avanti Communications....Broadband Satellite Company - AVN
it_trader - 10 Jul 2013 - 10:57:18 - 11944 of 11945
And an Evil Knievel target now.

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/1001/avanti-communications-is-not-investment-grade-material-says-evil-knievil

[it_trader] 10/7/2013 15:57

Sorry to paste this link ;(

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/1001/avanti-communications-is-not-investment-grade-material-says-evil-knievil

[it_trader] 10/7/2013 15:57

And an Evil Knievel target now.

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/1001/avanti-communications-is-not-investment-grade-material-says-evil-knievil

[it_trader] 10/7/2013 15:53

Evel Knievel has put a target on it now. Shorters will be queuing up. I can't see many buyers doing that right now.

I think if you really really believe in this share and the story you can either stick to your guns and watch shorters have there fun over the next week or so if you can stomach it, or sell up and then rebuy cheaper in a few weeks.

I was in Quindell when EK had his fun there and I came out with nearly twice as many shares, and still believing in the long term possible returns.

[togglebrush] 10/7/2013 15:50

Preliminary Results last year were 10th October 2012

[peterwaller395] 10/7/2013 14:49

If share price doesn't bounce through support at 208 quickly the downside target is £1.25 in 4 - 6 weeks so there may well be buying opps ahead - Zak Mir

[ricardo125] 10/7/2013 14:43

Buys from the directors won't help the situation although they are welcome. My big fear is RHPS may recommend a sell here, which will lead to a drift downward and stagnation. I think we could well see it bottom out around £1. My average price is in the mid 300's but I'll wait for a while to see what happens here before I attempt to average down.

[salpara111] 10/7/2013 14:04

The first time I looked at this was about 3 years ago when the share price was over 500p. I got a tip from an executive minicab driver of all people!
I could not understand the valuation back then, having looked at this again today it does seem to be string of missed targets and I guess you could call today a final capitulation as people give up.
I am actually going to put this on my low level monitor list and check in again in a few months as they may bottom out over that period.

[someuwin] 10/7/2013 13:17

People talk about the value of their assets, but don't forget that these satellites are only build with a 15 year lifetime (Although AVN say hope to get a bit more mileage out of Hylas-2).

Hylas-1 has been up almost 3 years already.

[togglebrush] 10/7/2013 13:14

Broker report
Date____________________Current___Old____New_____Note
'
10-Jul-13 Jefferies Buy 158.75p 640.00p 640.00p Reiteration

[anusol] 10/7/2013 12:38

Looks like its been removed due to copyright?
the update was quite informative - but confirms its a income timing issue (i.e. slippage/delay) rather than an underlying problem. But it does warn that more work needs to be done on assessing forward income assumptions and AVN need to prove themselves at being able to deliver rather than 'future promises'.
So still projecting £60m 14/15 and £90m 15/16 in terms of income - so that's more than enough to add huge value to the SP, but what's going to hold it back is investors having confidence that projections will become 'real'.
Also talked about 'frameworks' being more short term than individual contracts. True, but I still prefer frameworks in terms of once you're in the picture, you're half way there!

[woozle1] 10/7/2013 12:35

An interesting note and the following excerpts from the above would imply that management have been less than candid with their house broker:

"We questioned Avanti closely on HYLAS-2 revenue momentum in the preparation of our detailed 28 March note. Our understanding at that time was that invoicing got fully underway in Jan and that HYLAS-2 would drive a material pick-up in revenues from that point".

"In the preparation of our 28 March note, management highlighted to us how the £11/month run-rate was achieved in 1H13."

In other words, they spoke with management half way through the period and management were adamant that they would achieve an £11m monthly run rate. To be so far off and down to £7m would imply dishonesty or incompetence or bad luck. I think Jefferies are right when they say: Our initial view is that some prudent re-basing would be sensible until a stronger track record on revenue delivery is established.

My take away is that these are very valuable assets that would be better managed by a more experienced satellite operator or management team. The non execs should be on the hunt for a new CEO. Shorting at such discount to NAV would be taking the view that this goes bust, which is not beyond the realms of possibility with a big player buying the assets out of bankruptcy. However, it is more valuable as a going concern and there is s good opportunity to buy the these satellites at below cost, which may prove attractive. It's a risky short but with the debt and this management it's also a risky buy.

[research fellow] 10/7/2013 12:34

What was the update?

[jojaken] 10/7/2013 12:12

As noted earlier Jefferies has issued an update on Avanti this morning.

[togglebrush] 10/7/2013 11:46

Back of A Beer Mat numbers
,
Revenue June 2012 _5.462 million
Revenue June 2012 12.461 million
Revenue June 2013 ____________ J est 21 million for YE
,
we will now report our backlog, (i.e. order book), for each of the next three years. Backlog for these three periods currently stands at:
FYE June 2014: GBP42m ________ J est 60 million for YE
FYE June 2015: GBP46m ________ J est 90 million for YE
FYE June 2016: GBP40m
'
FYE revenues are roughly just over 10% of enterprise value (market cap plus debt) . Amended with J est are from removed report
'
Amended

[someuwin] 10/7/2013 11:29

Mkt cap £176m

Debt £205m.

[ninja 19] 10/7/2013 11:21

Short instrument has been disabled on this dog :(

[peterwaller395] 10/7/2013 11:09

I also meant to say there are enough Institutional investors on board to give me comfort that this will work out nicely, despite you short sellers currently having your day. Every dog has it's day Simon and as I've always maintained, 2015 is for me when the jury decides.

[togglebrush] 10/7/2013 11:08

Extract from RNS re Cash

Avanti remains conservatively financed, with a very long term repayment profile on its debts and remains in full compliance with all covenants. We ended the year with a cash balance of GBP38m and gross debt of GBP205m.