Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[sg31] 31/5/2013 11:20

Rogk, They haven't missed an IMS. They say there will be one in the second quarter. That is sometime up to the end of June.

[estienne] 31/5/2013 10:57

I agree TW & EK are best avoided.

[loverat] 31/5/2013 05:55

Oh dear - don't tell me that the tipster shorter team still have their claws into this one. That's what put me off last time I looked. So am I correct that after being positive they have gone bearish on the basis that 'something ain't right'?. It is not good listening too much to unsupported and vague speculation which this stable specialise. They also tend to pick up on errors or words used in trading statements and try to present them into something negative and all out of proportion.

I would suggest removing these discredited tipsters/shorters from any considerations here and elsewhere. They change their mind on a whim and their views seem to be guided by whatever position they have taken themselves. My cat has performed better over the last two years and is certainly more trustworthy.

[johncsimpson] 30/5/2013 22:04

Jonnib – I spotted this post of yours on the other thread 173 of 175 – I copied it at the time. It said:

You have to laugh....a small drop in the price and the chuckle brothers turn up again...(on other thread). John S you said you would go and not return.....so why are you here? and take you alter ego buywell with you....

I'll refer you to my post 11593 which was in response to a query of yours. You used to be quite polite in those days.

I also spotted you're post 168 (on yorgi's new board) and the one immediately above, which perhaps betrays your longer term inner frustration.

Anyway Part of my post 11593 to you:

. . . . I still log into ADVFN each day and regularly check the AVN boards and also follow a number of others but of late, I now mostly read and mostly don't comment.

I no longer hold AVN (nor for the record am I short) and haven't done for the past three months. In fact, I'm 65+% cash but I do keep half a dozen or so charts current.
----------------------------------

To bring you up to date. I still don't hold and I'm not shorting AVN and never have shorted. I still read rather than comment but the former doesn't exclude the latter. The only big change is I'm now 85% invested, approx. 75% in IOF which I started buying into before Christmas as I sold out of AVN. IOF has (on paper) made me a lot of money. (I just might top-slice in the next few days).

For this I have to thank superg1. I wish I'd taken note of his research earlier than I did.

So why am I bothering with this post?

One reason is that I suspect AVN are now close to some sort of update. IOF, I understand, will (according to rumours) be tipped in The National press this weekend.

My chart(s) shows AVN in serious decline but, of course, a good update will change all this. (AVN has in the past moved up on impending 'good' news).
In that time when I used to post AVN charts I would have to admit they were not as 'predictive' as I thought they would be. With hindsight I suspect this is partly the economic situation and partly because it's an AIM stock and has suffered at the hands of E.K. et al. Fortunately, I cottoned on to this last October, November.

I think it was k0108356 who cautioned at that time (October results) that profit warnings came in threes. But I suspect he will have written his loses off and moved on. So I hope for all you die-hards that the next AVN update is good.

A second reason is that I don't recall ever saying - I would go and not return. But presumably you can evidence this. And as adjunct to this, the other board where I posted is an alternate board for those of us who apparently 'do not understand the AVN story' or have changed their minds so although I'm posting here now; what is your issue?

The third reason is because if you did any sort of research you would know that I am not buywell. You only need to look at our respective posts to know this.

[crackmanjonny] 30/5/2013 19:27

Non-executive director Paul Walsh has bought 12,572 shares at 261p, taking his total holding up to 130,000. Avanti's directors have been regular buyers of the shares. As they are under no obligation to buy these shares, to me it seems they clearly have an expectation to make profit from these shares. BUY UP TO 750p (Today's close: 256p)

[wilksey1] 30/5/2013 15:10

i thought the next news release by the company was july,

[colva] 30/5/2013 13:19

I really don't know what to make of the IMS issue , Paul Walsh was brought onboard to strengthen corporate governance and the company have said that they intend to issue IMS's , so in theory Walsh should be telling DW to put out an IMS regardless of whether its good or bad , but instead we get Walsh buying shares, which makes an IMS very unlikely .

The only way that they could get away with putting out an IMS now is if the period covered didn't come up to market expectations, so Walsh's buy wouldn't be an issue.

[mjcferguson] 30/5/2013 09:27

Surely a statement that q3 is in line would strengthen share price.It is lack of information that makes shareholders nervous.Company website indicates that they will issue ims.

[hpcg] 30/5/2013 08:32

Yes, there is certainly that risk. Indeed there pretty much has to be downside risk for there to be the possibility of reward. A few scenarios related to Paul Walsh's buy and IMS timing.

1. Q3 not good. As no need to publish wait for end of year, especially if Q4 likely to be better than Q3.
2. PW is a non-exec and could have made the purchase at his usual price level without knowing Q3 figures. Perhaps the purchase was just before the board meeting and the IMS has now been approved by the board? 14 May is simply 1 year on from 14 May IMS last year.
3. Q3 is inline IMS adds nothing to the picture.
4. Not in the plan to have an IMS - I keep meaning to read back what they have said about market communication but not got around to it.
5. Second half is going to be a blow out and they have decided to hit the market with shock and awe come end of year announcement.

And bits in between. I think 2 and 3 are equally likely, and that if there is an IMS it will be in line. After that scenario 1 being possible with scenario 5 not investable. In other words I think it reasonable to sell to cover the downside case but not reasonable to buy hoping for the upside. I think the board would be obliged to communicate if dramatically out of line one way or the other, and given the high quality of the membership I trust them on this.

[philo124] 30/5/2013 06:56

Good post. Since I put this in my SIPP I have tended not worry about short term
movements, pundits and broker notes.

[togglebrush] 29/5/2013 16:52

Stats on Prices and Daily Trading Volumes for 2012 to 2013
'
Max_______ 419.00 3,794,513 ... Price 13 July 12 Vol 12 Oct 12
One in 100 399.68 1,284,212
Q3________ 317.13 __282,841
Median____ 295.00 __172,084 ... middle of sorted sample or normal day
Q1________ 259.63 __108,359
'
Today's volume is around 1,982,178 so a one in a hundred trading day

[gekks] 29/5/2013 16:31

Seems like much higher traded volume today than normal ?

[djmozy2] 29/5/2013 13:13

Wouldn't this potentially be beneficial for Avanti. At the end of the day, the blips need to get internet from somewhere if they are going to be in rural areas. So they could use Avanti transmissions

[jeffian] 29/5/2013 11:18

Hmmm! Not too sure about the security issues. Blimps are vulnerable to a bow and arrow, never mind an AK47!

[undertaker] 29/5/2013 11:12

could this offer from google be a threat to AVN in Africa?....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10084512/Google-blimps-will-bring-the-web-to-Africa.html

[jeffian] 29/5/2013 09:44

Mentioned in today's Telegraph market report -

"Also on Aim, Avanti Communications was up 13½, or 5.29pc, to 268½ after Natixis analyst Eric Beaudet issued a "buy" recommendation on the shares and a target price of 540p, noting that the current price was close to its historic lows.
"[It] offers a unique buy opportunity at a time when news flow is likely to build with the entry into service of its second, and largest, satellite and its probable transfer from Aim to the LSE in 2013/14," he said."

[broadwood] 29/5/2013 08:14

The first bullish note from an independent analyst other than its own house brokers helped Avanti Communications touch 280p and close 13.5p up at 268p.

Eric Beaudet, at French investment bank Natixis, has a target price of 540p. He believes the young satellite operator offers a unique buying opportunity at a time when news flow is likely to build with the entry into service of its second, and largest, HYLAS satellite, and the company's probable transfer from AIM to the main list in 2013-14.

Helping Avanti's cause too was news that director and former Diageo boss Paul Walsh bought a further 12,572 shares at 261p a pop. Since he joined the board in January 2012, Walsh has forked out almost £213,000 on 81,500 shares, at an average price of around 262p.