Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 29/11/2012 19:52

We didn't drop further today, in fact up a little so lets hope this continues now and Cenkos is right.

[geheimnis2] 29/11/2012 19:16

i guess walshie has spent over a quarter of a million on avn stock over the last few months after joining the company

although i am sure he is pretty well off, that is definitely not loose change and for me gives considerable confidence in the face of cawky's BS

[peterwaller395] 29/11/2012 17:21

Zak is good I think - Funnily, I have just emailed Zak as I subscribe to his TA bulletin for an update on Avanti - got the result another way - thanks. TW got kicked out of T1ps didn't he, as well as RIVP

[peterwaller395] 29/11/2012 17:11

I've just topped up at £2.22 but I've just noticed a big purchase of 100,000 shares at £2.20 - Time 16:50

Any ideas anyone?

[m1das_touch] 29/11/2012 16:09

If management can achieve 100p EPS in 2016 (and yes, it's a big if...I'd be happy if they achieve 50p!) well by then we should be a long way north of 215p. The M&A angle could prove some significant near-term upside too if Cenkos are right.

[m1das_touch] 29/11/2012 16:07

Cenkos Brokers have issued a bullish note, makes for encouraging reading...

Avanti Communications – (AVN, Price 215p, Mkt. Cap. £241m, BUY Cenkos Brokership) - M&A in Ka?

Yesterday's share price fall of 10% suggests the equity market is still very near term focussed when it comes to judging the investment opportunity at Avanti. While the recent push-back of forecasts by roughly one year is still washing over the shares, the long term upside potential remains substantial. The company is still winning business at a rate (£11m a month) which will sell out both existing satellites in 2016 and once all 3 satellites approach capacity, Avanti could generate EPS significantly north of 100p.

Meanwhile, the NAV doesn't even reflect the build cost at the fleet (let alone the spectrum) and our DCF value of c.900p gives a feel for the longer term prospects. Newsflow of late has also been positive with the ITU having ratified the spectrum rights of Avanti for HYLAS 2 and recent trade press reports that Viasat (VSAT) is looking at M&A opportunities in Ka Band outside of the US. Any transactions in this field would at the very least focus attention on value opportunities across the industry and Avanti remains a unique quoted play in this respect.

[nugacity] 29/11/2012 13:17

Can't post on LSE ... was this a D-ramp :O)

SC does not rely on his disciples but if he is wrong then their sheepishness will make it right. And if he double-crosses them he can make a mint!

Why isn't he a blue poster - can't he afford the subs?

On LSE ... roman numbers for the confused?

momochi
Posts: 503
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 217.00
hah
Today 11:09
just noticed my 500th post was a general moan about AIM, speaks volumes :D

[yorgi] 29/11/2012 12:49

Agreed Gunnerman.

[gunnerman] 29/11/2012 12:43

I have seen this sort of short action so many times before. Negative thoughts and observations overwhelm the BB's and undermine confidence to the extent that nervous holders are scared into selling their shares, usually at a thumping loss, only to see a dramatic recovery a few weeks or sometimes days later.
I am given a degree of confidence by a reasonable director purchase. If the accounting outlook was so grim, there would more likely be director selling.

[m1das_touch] 29/11/2012 12:18

Ultimately I think this all boils down to whether you believe the long-term story and value or not. Let's not deny that it's hard for long-term holders to keep faith and hold on to losing positions when the share price is sinking, but that's the nature of investing/trading. Prices go up and down according to sentiment, news, general market mood etc. Sadly many private investors will tend to panic and sell at the bottom of cycles, which is usually when the professionals will either be buying or closing shorts.

None of us can be sure where the bottom will be if we're honest, so it's a question of how much we're prepared to risk and what we believe the reward will be. My personal feeling is that at these levels, the shares offer good long-term value, particularly as they're covered in full by net assets. But if there are more people taking the opposing view, then I accept that the share-price may go lower in the short-term.

[yorgi] 29/11/2012 11:43

John,

I agree with most of what you comment but SC was singing his shorting story again yesterday and today the share price is rising......early days yet and a long long way to go but if yesterday was the bottom and we still don't know if it was then that will be good and holders and buyers will be pleased and shorters starting a short yesterday will be hurting and I won't feel in the least sorry for them.

[someuwin] 29/11/2012 11:42

The trouble with all these modest director buys is that after a while they appear more desperate than instilling confidence.

An update on the BUSINESS is what's needed, or a meaningful contract win.

But of course, a director buying in the market implies there will be no news coming soon.

[2350220] 29/11/2012 11:37

In truth Yorgi,
I think anyone shorting is smiling.
The only folk hurting are the LTH's like you, myself and many others on this board.
My average SIPP holding is above £5 and average S/B position is around 280p.

I genuinely thought that as soon as we had the 2nd Sat in space, all safe and cosy, we'd be in a much better position than we find ourselves today.
Never thought for one minute that we would be visiting these sorts of levels.

John

[yorgi] 29/11/2012 11:31

Regardless of AVN I have never been able to accept that shorting is an legitimate practise and I still believe that eventually it will be stopped however to see that anyone following Simon Cawkwell yesterday will be beginning to be hurt today does give me a smile.

[martincoops] 29/11/2012 11:27

Looking a bit better today but still along way to go before it reaches true value. Lets see if the shorters close their positions over the next few weeks and see this rebound.

[martincoops] 29/11/2012 10:27

Just picked up £17k worth as i see this as beng at or near the bottom.

[dougie471] 29/11/2012 10:10

Avanti Communications Group plc
(the "Company")

Directors Shareholdings


Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, was today notified by Paul Walsh, non-executive Director, that he has today purchased an additional 10,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 217 pence per ordinary share. Paul Walsh now holds a total direct and indirect voting right interest in 107,428 ordinary shares in the Company, being approximately 0.1% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[dougie471] 29/11/2012 10:09

Avanti Communications Group plc
(the "Company")

Directors Shareholdings


Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, was today notified by Paul Walsh, non-executive Director, that he has today purchased an additional 10,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 217 pence per ordinary share. Paul Walsh now holds a total direct and indirect voting right interest in 107,428 ordinary shares in the Company, being approximately 0.1% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[m1das_touch] 29/11/2012 09:56

Those who are short will quite likely dismiss another director buy as insignificant and although it may well not stop the short-term price decline, £21,700 is not an insignificant amount of money and it does show management confidence. We are now below NAV (ex-intangibles) of 233p per share, so we may be approaching a floor for the share price.

At some point I feel confident that those who have followed EK's advice late will get burnt, as they're now shorting at heavily oversold levels on many indicators.

I may be wrong of course...!