Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[garymott] 28/11/2012 17:48

I am capturing SC's comments and then reviewing them against AVN's results and RNSs. Please see my recent posts 10927 and 11029 (apologises these are lengthy!)In summary:-

Post 11029
EK references 'people who know about AVN' about backlog stating "...our guess is that a lot is just options that customers don't have to take up...".

AVN's RNSs on 11/07/12 and 03/10/11 directly and explicitly state that the definition of backlog is "binding contracts for the sale of capacity in future periods)".

Post 10927
EK thought that revenue to June 2012 "would not generate much more than £10m for this period".

The fact is that revenue to June was £15m (£12.5m from Hylas 1) so EK was wrong by 50% (or 25%).

We will have to wait to see how accurate SC's forecasts in post 10927 are for revenue for Hylas 1 and 2 at full capacity. They are vastly different from AVN's forecast.

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 16:45

sorry VMH

i could have phrased it "i was challenging cawky to prove that he was doing something other than talking his own book"

his silence is unsurprising.

[verymaryhinge] 28/11/2012 16:42

"..whether he was just talking his own book.".. whatever he has, I can guarantee he is talking his book -

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 16:40

AA29

i didnt offer any accounting input.

i simply asked if cawky would like to substantiate his queries over the accounting so i can assess for myself whether they had any substance or whether he was just talking his own book.

[verymaryhinge] 28/11/2012 16:37

I had a longer post (..OK, rant) but thought I'd post a precis...

[verymaryhinge] 28/11/2012 16:36

SP down 40% in the last few weeks - I'm frustrated and cross at the lack of reaction from the company..

[aa29] 28/11/2012 16:32

Not seeking to offend but there seem to be a lot on here immediately dismissing other views (on the short side).

You offered some accounting input. What do you think of the comments in the link which were posted last week.

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 16:07

the link and the contents were also posted months ago

you seem rather quick to seek to offend, AA29

[lavagrouch] 28/11/2012 16:04

AA29 11356 - don't be so touchy. Geheimnis is right, that link and the contents have been posted at least 3 times in the past few days.

[aa29] 28/11/2012 16:00

Geheimnis

In 11348, you imply that you might be able to make an interesting input to the debate. Can't see any evidence of that in 11352.

[yorgi] 28/11/2012 15:49

It does look that way Someuwin.

[yorgi] 28/11/2012 15:48

Precisely Geheimnis.

[someuwin] 28/11/2012 15:47

Looks like it wants to go below 200.

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 15:45

old news AA29

my feeling is that cawky saw that the chart/sentiment was nothing to write home about and saw another opportunity to talk his own book

it seems to work okay so why not, i guess.

[yorgi] 28/11/2012 15:32

Simon,

You can hardly deny that by posting what you are shorting in your diary which is published regularly that those that follow your short will help realise your profit.

Yorgi

[aa29] 28/11/2012 15:09

This is the link that appears to be the source for accounting questions

[loverat] 28/11/2012 15:07

Yeah - I think so too. I have taken a quick look and difficult to see if there is an issue. It would all depend on the nature of the busines and stage it is at in its developement and preferably there should be something to compare it to. As I say this other company I spoke about was an Indian entertainment company and each set of accounts the same pattern was evident so much that the problem was even mentioned in the statements.

I think Cawky is trained in accounts. Perhaps he could tell us.

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 14:57

i understand accounting stuff so interested if cawky has anything more specific to post

would assume it's the usual BS if not

[loverat] 28/11/2012 14:40

I had shares in a company which had a clear problem in that department and it stuck out in the accounts like a sore thumb and was a long standing issue.

Not sure if there are any accounting folk on here who understand this business. Looks like there was an increase in trade debtors in the accounts at the last period. But does anyone see anything odd or unusual to indicate a trend? Cannot see anything to indicate there is a specific issue myself but would be interested in observations for learning purposes.

[supasapi] 28/11/2012 14:37

Well EK was very right on some of the things that I have dipped into eg TNI and Golden Prospect, wish i was a pound behind him

[geheimnis2] 28/11/2012 14:31

Cawky

any more details on your accounting queries? or the suggestion that trade debtors do not turn into cash?

[waterloo01] 28/11/2012 14:23

Simon, made enough money yet to close the short?

[simon cawkwell] 28/11/2012 14:08

yorgi,

Actually, I do not rely upon my "disciples". I rely upon truth, at least insofar as I can winkle it out, emerging.

The fact is that Avanti accounts in a most odd way. Trade debtors that do not liquidate quickly indicate problems. Just look for yourself.

Simon Cawkwell

PS: I would add that the AVN price action is most striking.

[count chris] 28/11/2012 14:04

Absolutely - nothings going to get better until we see some results - at that point I have high hopes things will get better but until then I've hedged my holding with a short SB.

[yorgi] 28/11/2012 14:01

EK relies on his disciples making him his profit whether his call is right or wrong. Just the same as topinfo does on his small cap buys.

What is clear here the BOD have got to convince the market that the shorters are wrong as up to now they clearly haven't.