Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 09/1/2013 20:52

Looks OK now . . .

[johncsimpson] 09/1/2013 20:45

jonnib 9 Jan'13 - 12:18 - 11579 of 11588


J simpson.. Whats your latest take from the chart point of view seeing as we seem to be in an up trend?
Cheers

-----------------------------

Jonnib - I see you haven't posted here too much here these past few months. Nor have I - neither here nor on the board 'next door' (where I last posted a chart in early October). I still log into ADVFN each day and regularly check the AVN boards and also follow a number of others but of late, I now mostly read and mostly don't comment.

I no longer hold AVN (nor for the record am I short) and haven't done for the past three months. In fact, I'm 65+% cash but I do keep half a dozen or so charts current.

Charts:

Here's my AVN chart as of close of play today.



AVN has recently been pushing up against a trend line that was once 'support' albeit in a downtrend and then 'upwards resistance' in that same downtrend.

AVN broke through this resistance at the start of this month but immediately fell back. It then broke back up just as quickly and is now holding above.

I can now plot a 'tentative uptrend' (but this is still within the overall downtrend which can be charted from mid-July 2012). AVN looks promising again but then we've been there before.

On fundamentals:

There is likely to be a statement / update in early February - I think I read this on iii and yorgi seems to have found a reference (posted here) on Morningstar. With this in mind, it's likely that AVN might make further progress. I say this because historically, impending 'good' news has moved the price forward. We don't, on this occasion, know if the news will be good or not. But the expectation is that it will and it could be the reason for the current rise.

All IMHO with no intention to ramp, de-ramp or offer advice.

You (and anyone else) might also be interested in Zak Mir's chart.



Re k0108356 and his 'I've gone short' post.

My take here is that this guy is an honest trader and others should not be tempted to gloat at his (bad) timing.

If the impending news is not good, then we may find that his mis-timed 'bet' was just that i.e. mis-timed. He could actually still be right. Remember, profit warnings (and that's essentially what we had on 10th October) tend not to come in isolation.

Read on . . .

I have taken this from AVN over on iii. I hope the poster (tiggerman1) does not mind my sharing his post 'Keeping investors up to date' as follows:

My e-mail to AVN

To the Investor Relations Manager - AVN

Sirs,
I have been invested in AVN for several years, and like any other interested investor, have kept up to date via press, bulletin boards and company announcements.
There was a time a couple of years ago when AVN would frequently keep their investors well informed and up to date with all sorts of information relating to Hylas progress, launches, contract wins and other general related news. I also watched the launches live. This information news flow now seems to have totally dried up apart from obligatory requirements on director dealings, etc.
I have only just found out about the AVN dispute with SES through a totally unrelated channel (even though this occurred some time ago ). I would have thought that its importance would have initiated an informative RNS to company shareholders.
Similarly, since AVN is now punting for business in Africa and the Middle East, it would be nice to hear of some business contract success.
Is it not time the company renewed its thoughts and energy into giving some improvement to their investor communications. It is after all the business that they are in.

PS I did quite some time ago register an interest in the AVN broadband supply via an approved ISP, and encouraged several of my friends and family to do the same. I have subsequently heard absolutely nothing at all.

Foonote: my software has corrected spelling and grammatical errors from pasted content.

[johncsimpson] 09/1/2013 20:06

joeywald

now re-posted below

[joeywald] 09/1/2013 19:51

"Here's my AVN chart as of close of play today."

---------------------------------------
John

I don't see it. Please repost.

[johncsimpson] 09/1/2013 18:58

see post 11593 below

[philo124] 09/1/2013 18:16

Yep, could get to 300p in this market rally.

[garymott] 09/1/2013 15:30

No problem jadeticl. I am very pleased to see the share price at 260p :-)

[2350220] 09/1/2013 15:20

Oooh doggy.
Finally having something to cheer about today.

Nice to see us rise for a change.

John

[jadeticl] 09/1/2013 15:06

GaryMott--sorry! This is the problem with going away on holiday and trying to speed read 100 posts on return. Anyway you can see that many people have read you aright and jumped to your defence--which is good. AND THE share price IS 260p WHICH IS GOOD.

[jonnyno1] 09/1/2013 13:33

it's not garymott's post!

sorry couldnt resist

[garymott] 09/1/2013 13:30

jadeticl, this was not my prediction, it was k0108356's. I believe he meant 250p.

The reason for reviewing k0108356's posts was because he was convinced the share price was about to turn lower. In fact it turned higher and his short should have been closed with his 260p limit at a loss.

[jonnyno1] 09/1/2013 13:30

it's not garymott's post!

[ttnyw] 09/1/2013 13:30

Gary

Shall I say it or leave it to you.

jadetici.........

Read the post properly!!!!!

[jadeticl] 09/1/2013 13:22

GaryMott, it is not often that a prediction is proved right or wrong to soon after the prediction is made, but your comment that "I dont think AVN has the legs to get to 250p let alone any higher for a long while yet" must be competing for the worst prediction possible. Or was it a misprint? Did you mean 1250p?

[garymott] 09/1/2013 12:25

k0108356, the Buy price is currently 265p and Sell price is 254p. So I'm afraid you were wrong in post 11509 below. Also, your Stop in post 11525 below was 260p. Have you therefore now Closed this Short?

k0108356 20 Dec'12 - 19:05 - 11509 of 11578

Bought back into AVN a few weeks at 240 after that brief bounce a few weeks ago, did this based on a morning star signalling a significant reversal (candlestick pattern). Well was proved wrong pretty much straight away when it drifted onto the 220s, yesterday saw the chance of a break of the downtrend since early October but didn't have the momentum to push on through instead posting a shooting star. If it had pushed through the downtrend today would've seen a significant rise. At the close of yesterday I had off loaded 80% of my original position and closed out the rest this morning. As a trader I don't think AVN has the legs to get to 250 let alone any higher for a long while yet. A revisit of new lows is IMO on the way.

k0108356 28 Dec'12 - 12:49 - 11525 of 11578

In the interest's of transparency i've gone short at 239, stop at 260 limit is lower than 200

[jonnib] 09/1/2013 12:18

J simpson.. Whats your latest take from the chart point of view seeing as we seem to be in an up trend?
Cheers

[2350220] 08/1/2013 14:27

I've reported it as a fault, to ADVFN.
They've obviously got the daily chart the wrong way up.

John

[yorgi] 08/1/2013 13:20

My lips are sealed Gary :-)

[garymott] 08/1/2013 13:19

yorgi, don't say anything! :-)

[2350220] 07/1/2013 14:42

Geheimnis, the major change since 2012 is that this seems to be going up :-)
That makes a plesant change.

John

[geheimnis2] 07/1/2013 14:20

mjames

i would guess this is a change from 2012 - so we will get a q2 statement (on q1 trading) soon

[mjames20] 07/1/2013 14:15

This from the News and Media introduction on the Avanti website:

"Avanti communicates its strategic developments, financial performance and the development of its business to all audiences, including investors, through a regular series of announcements via the London Stock Exchange.

These announcements are the year-end preliminary results, the half year results, a year-end trading update (sometimes known as a pre close statement) in July and Interim Management Statements in the 2nd and 4th quarters. This reporting pattern is consistent with the Group's objective to move to the Main List of the London Stock Exchange which requires these statements to be published (except the pre close). Other than these announcements, only matters which are strategically or financially significant to the company will be announced separately via the stock exchange."

Not sure we got an interim management statement in the 2nd quarter. Next announcement would appear to be the half year results.

[hpcg] 07/1/2013 13:24

I meant to model some profit curves over the weekend but inertia took hold. Also without an idea of fixed costs for H2 it was a bit futile. Depreciation is what it is, I assume the launch cost is capitalised as it is the equivalent of install costs for fixed equipment. Fixed operational costs should be thereabouts for the duration - some sort of inflation multiplier. I'm not sure if there are any variable operational costs, suspect they are small. Sales team cost would have a few years to run at the current rate. Corporate charges should be fixed. Interest is a variable but there are a few scenarios which can be modelled.

As you say John at this time the revenue will be at its minimum and so the fixed costs will be proportionately most evident.

I don't know if we will get a breakdown of H2 and H1 but for modelling purposes it does not really matter, they can be treated as a single block of capacity.

[yorgi] 07/1/2013 13:13

I was just having a look at the company website and went into the investors relations are and saw the following which I had not picked up before :

"Avanti does not accept Investor Relations queries by e-mail.

If you have a query please contact your broker in the first instance or Sean Watherston at Avanti on 020 7749 1600.
Alternatively, you can write to us including your full contact and shareholding details."

Not a very forward thinking policy I would say.

[yorgi] 07/1/2013 13:09

Welcome back John :-)

According to "Morningstar" the next interims are due around the beginning of February.