Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[nightspot] 03/10/2012 12:48

smythy3 3 Oct'12 - 12:00 - 10694 of 10699

'they've just launched a new satellite and they're probably busy getting it ready so they can say something about it. I'd rather wait a few days and get that confirmed'

Smythy, you took the words out of my mouth. This is almost certainly the case. I believe we will see a H3 Service launch date and very good backlog numbers when we get that results RNS shortly. Sellers now on 'no news is bad news' fears will have to pay a much higher price to get back in.

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 12:27

From 11:55 to 12:03 I am pleased to report 9 out of 10 deals were buys!
Frogs turning into princes at noon?

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 12:22

gunmartin, Hylas#3 is not due until 2015 so plenty of time to plan another slot if the other 2 are forfeited as looks likely. By then there will be several defaulters in other slots so we could be spoiled for choice.

The rules (timescales) were introduced to flush out time-wasters and nobody in this world thinks Avanti are that - 2 out of 2 up there - and the third is being built.

[smythy3] 03/10/2012 12:12

I don't know about 61.5 East but HYLAS 3 is supposed to cover the whole of Africa including West Africa - I don't think you can do that from a slot so far East. I always expected it would go where HYLAS 2 is (bang over Africa) or HYLAS 1 is (a bit West with a good view of Nigeria etc. You can put more than one satellite in each slot (see Eutelsat, SES etc. who make up "Hot spot" locations with lots of satellites) so there doesn't seem to be a problem on the third one

[k0108356] 03/10/2012 12:06

History back to 16/04/2007, i'm no mathematician but that's 5 1/2 years in 13 days time ;)

[gnnmartin] 03/10/2012 12:03

I have not been watching this closely enough. I had missed the Sept 7 announcement ( I hope I'm misreading it, and if I'm not it seems to clash so hard with Avanti's RNS on Sept 10 that surely Avanti should have pulled or clarified the RNS.

The RNS seems to say that approval has been granted: "Avanti, via its National Regulator OFCOM, has received the standard confirmation from the ITU Radiocommunication Bureau (which regulates such matters) that its ITU filing for the use of spectrum by HYLAS 2 at 31°E has been accepted and notified in accordance with ITU rules, providing the necessary regulatory basis for the operation of the HYLAS 2 satellite at 31°E.".

Also the RNS reports progress and no problems for Hylas 3, but (again, if I read it aright) the Sept 7 announcement records that Avant have lost the slot that Hylas 3 would occupy. "The ITU's Radiocommunication Bureau ... recommended, with British consent, that Avanti's reservation of a slot at 61.5 east be canceled. It too had expired in May. The ITU said that the British government sent written notification of the cancellation of the 61.5-degree slot July 20.".

I hope someone here can point out how I have misunderstood the situation.
Nigel Martin

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 12:03

TA needs a history and this baby is still in its infancy.
Imagine predicting a healthy baby's future based on the the first 3 years of its life? An unhealthy one is more predictable but Avanti look fine to me!

[smythy3] 03/10/2012 12:00

Agree with Nugacity and Disc0Dave:
1. This company doesn't report like clockwork. October in 2011, December in 2010 - they've just launched a new satellite and they're probably busy getting it ready so they can say something about it. I'd rather wait a few days and get that confirmed
2. They don't report individual contracts anymore - they put something up on their website and RNSd something a few months ago about reporting like a full list co. and therefore updating the market 1/4ly rather than everytime a customer made an order. I thought that was a good move to take some of the noise out of the stock but others seem to forget the change in approach
3. SES/Lux issue must be dead, otherwise they'd have to retract the very confident statement they made in the RNS on the day they announced they'd taken control of the satellite - remember, that was approved by the BOD, not dreamt up by a journalist. SES can complain but they can't change the rules or beat up on Ofcom.
4. The potential of HYLAS 2 seems pretty clear. Surprised more epople haven't focused on the CTO report from last week and what it means for Avanti

so I want to hear about it being switched on and selling.

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 11:47

Malcolm, SES/Luxembourg claims are virtually dead. They were almost ignored at the September meeting, Avanti were confirmed in the slot , and their claim was put back to the November meeting when it 'may' be discussed.

The drop is down to the new saying "no news is bad news" in financial markets.
2 of my 3 core stocks are suffering and it ain't pretty. Ironically my third core has moved up nicely (13p to 24p) based on lots of news which has not really changed their position - they still need planning consent and funds to progress.

It does my head in!

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 11:39

3% shorted (3.3M) which is the sort of figure I remember from many months ago.
Looks like a good opportunity to close them , heaven forbid people take out more?

The volumes don't look high enough for major worry .... one good announcement from Avanti will reverse the numbers very quickly. I hope the sales are triggered by stop losses because these frequently mislead the market and overselling results.

I am more tempted to pick up the current bargain price than sell ..... this was my anchor after the antennae opened successfully .... we should be spamming every African country about the Avanti ..... revenge for all those spams from Africa in get rich quick scams :O)

It sounds like a vicious circle ... how do we inform those countries if they don't have broadband? Advertising on TV via eutelsat :O( .... I need a drink.

[malcolmmm] 03/10/2012 11:34

The issue with Luxembourg spooked me out at 368p ,looking at the graph I think these will fall to 250p. If the Luxemborg issue is solved in AVN's favour, without a compromise, they should recover quickly imo

[disc0dave] 03/10/2012 11:11

Yes, as stated we have had people come on say they've sold out so I'm not thinking insider trading (yet). Just how bad could the news be?? we don't expect huge steps at this stage - just a general update. I think there's a number of reasons for the fall:

1/ The non-news regarding the issue with Luxembourg may have spooked a few.
2/ The terrible spread that has been on the shares for a while (may have put off new investors and traders alike). Now the spread is tighter people are suddenly looking at how far it might fall short-term.
3/ No-one knowing when the company is going to update the market.

Lets just say I'm watching this closer than any of my other shares at present, because if the new is good, and all we do is get back to the high £3, I'll be pretty gutted I didn't top up...

[count chris] 03/10/2012 10:53

I think it'll be people looking at the technicals more than anything but if they push it down to 300 they may well swap sides and push it back up again. Role on news.

[joan of arc] 03/10/2012 10:46

Expect an update in the next few days and not good. This price movement is all down to insider trading.

[nightspot] 03/10/2012 10:46

The company have always given notice of when they were going to release their preliminary earnings statement.
29/11/10 notice for results release 01/12/10
29/07/11 notice for results release 03/10/11

They have not given any notice yet, so I don't know why expectations here were for a results announcement at this time. As can be seen, they have not kept to any specific date in the past and they have released their statement as late as 1st December. Calm down folks!

[hpcg] 03/10/2012 10:36

No, let's hope it spikes down to just below 300 so my 303.5 order gets filled :-)

[goodgrief] 03/10/2012 10:26

Let's hope this holds above 300p...

[superg1] 03/10/2012 10:25

hpcg

I agree

The lack cold hard figures are probably just keeping fingers off the buy buttons.

Too many unknowns on that front, so, many waiting for the facts.

[disc0dave] 03/10/2012 10:22

Agreed, still have a core holding but the majority are surely looking at the graph and can see where it "potentially" might drop to. News will change that - adding at the right time is the difficulty... I've heard nothing to make me think there will be anything bad - but still not sure how the market will react to news that doesn't cover everything outstanding on this co.

[rathlindri] 03/10/2012 10:21

Weren't we supposed to have had a report by the end of September??

[hpcg] 03/10/2012 10:11

Hmm judging by comments here it ought to be a bit more down than this. From what the technical traders here are saying it should be one out all out. I'm not sure whether to pick up more trading stock just yet or wait for a bigger pull back to 300.
Agree with superg1, low risk growth investors will want to see the latest numbers for backlog and fixed and variable costs to model future cash flow. High risk growth investors will take a punt on their existing model being representative if they want to add to their position. I'm not sure the price has dropped quite enough - 15% off 350 is 298 - to make it screaming value for those people yet. Think I will put some spread bets limit orders in at 315 and 303.5.

[k0108356] 03/10/2012 09:58

Morning WL

Technical's are awful, fundamentally has anything changed apart from sabre tooth rattling by some smaller disgruntled satellite operator's I don't think so. Of course if they release a RNS to the contrary then yes the fundamental's may have changed however if they were good at 400 then they're good at 320? I don't know what kind of trader you are buddy (TA or Fundies man) but if you are a true Fundies guy if it was a buy at 400, it's a cracking buy at 320 and another cracking buy at 280/220/150 (you get my drift!). Us TA guys just stare at the price as that's what pay's.

Kind Regards

Kully

[nightspot] 03/10/2012 09:57

John, I don't think Hylas2 debt repayments commencing Dec 2012 is an issue. This fact was disclosed by the company, and in any case I am sure the repayment arrangements will not be straight line but back-end loaded to match revenue expectations as capacity fills on H2.

I owe you a response to an earlier discussion for which I apologise. I have kept away from the boards since my hols.