Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 03/10/2012 09:47

On technicals it doesn't look good, on fundamentals it doesn't look good, on the potential tomorrow it's a buy. It has the curse of AIM all over it!

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 09:46

Hello Kully

Yup. That's TA for you - live by the sword; die by the sword.

[k0108356] 03/10/2012 09:43

Morning John

Yep that 340 level was critical and you can see how quickly it has dropped once it was broken. Also with that broken, the bullish flag (that I had hoped was forming) is no longer the case, the descending triangle has done it's job and the drop has ensued. Plus it has broken it's 200 day EMA at 334, the 50% fib level at 336 with 310 (38.2%) the next stop YTD High's>Lows. Too many TA known known's for me not to cull my position, if you get in based on Technical's you have to get out based on Technical's. A shame really considering the recovery bowl that was in play here.

Kind Regards

K

[backmarker] 03/10/2012 09:34

fear creeping back in here. it's understandable with the lack of newsflow. and the breach of 340 support has added to people's nerves, probably helped by the mms and the DA merchants trying to shake a few cheap shares.

we've been here before, just have to ride it.

(pity I bought those extra spreadbets, though :-{ )

[superg1] 03/10/2012 09:26

Disc

Just to clairfy onl;y 227m drawn down so far and revenues unknown. Just pointing out that it may be the stalling point, with the market waiting for some visibilty on revenues.

Obviously Hylas 2 revenues kicking in will help considerably.

I just think some are waiting to see the actual figures and forecasts.

[superg1] 03/10/2012 09:17

As pointed out on the other thread, it's a case of working out the income v the loan payments and costs (for the fundamental guys)

$328m available on the drawdown facility, $227m taken as in the last update, surely more to cover Hylas 2 launch and associated insurance.

The full amount used mean £30m PA in repayments for 7 years from Dec 2012.

So a case of balancing running costs, and loan repayments against future revenues.

Perhaps that's what the market are looking at short term, but obviously for long termers, on the back of delivery, it should not be an issue.

[cestnous] 03/10/2012 09:01

This negative sentiment will only be relieved by by contract announcements.
I have had too much in this for too long. You live and learn, but it can be an expensive process.

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 08:49

I see my trader friend k0108356 got out this morning. Charts currently showing 315 as a bottom . . .

[nugacity] 03/10/2012 08:36

k0108356 hope to see you back soon - you've called this one well.
If only I had believed you? We need some sort of announcement as we are in limbo. The good news with limbo is the feet are firmly on the ground :O)
Getting a bit worried , 2 of my 3 core stocks are in this position having looked safe bets. Yuk as you say!

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 08:32

Not looking for an argument here but possible trader's strategy.

Buy orders in at 320 and 315 areas then sell into the spike when the RNS comes before peeps spot the debt repayments over the next 7 years.

[k0108356] 03/10/2012 08:26

Gent's I bid u a fond farewell, AVN has treated me well this year but last buy's were yuck, sold out a chunky position this morning for a loss of a few k as it has reached my risk:reward. Trade safe :)

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 07:28

End of day chart from last night.



Many have mentioned the '340 -345' area; AVN closed at the lower end but actually went even lower intraday to 335ish.

With no RNS yet (as many have predicted for this week - being notionally 1 year on from last years Prelims) there could be fun and games.

[johncsimpson] 03/10/2012 06:58

With a bit of help, I've done some checking:



This RNS from about a year ago.

It's the final paragraph at the end of the CHIEF EXECUTIVE'S REPORT financial review which is of interest:

-----------------------

During the year we raised GBP70 million in an equity placing to refinance an expensive PIK bond and fund the early stage design work for HYLAS 3. In addition, with the construction of HYLAS 2 underway, we drew $190.3 million on our Export Credit Agency debt facilities of $328 million. The debt is at attractive fixed interest rates of 5.5% and is drawn down during the period up to HYLAS 2's launch and then repayable over a seven year period from December 2012. In these volatile economic times, shareholders can draw great comfort from the stable long term financial resilience of our balance sheet.

------------------------

So the interest kicks in from Dec 2012. Maths not my strong point but at 31 December 2011 the Company had drawn $227 million (June 2011: $190 million) of this debt facility. The full facility was $328 million which could be drawn over the last 12 months. So have AVN now drawn down the rest and how are the interest repayments going to effect matters?

[colva] 03/10/2012 05:04

sg31


On the 04th May 2012 the share price closed at 339p and yesterday it closed at 339p so my long term holding has done nothing in the last 5 months , ok its not really fair to judge a long term holding over a 5 month period but when we look at what has happened with the share price i think traders will have done well, we've had a low of 295p and a high of 419p with lots of ups and downs along the way , even i'v managed to make a few quid ( though my recent buys are looking a bit ugly) so i'm sure that proper traders will have done very well.

[sg31] 02/10/2012 20:44

Just normal market movements. Posters on this board are admitting they have sold.
When we get an update that H2 is in commercial operation and the amount of sales the market will get some idea how to price it. This has always been a long term hold not a trading share.
Patience.

[buck581] 02/10/2012 19:45

Market manipulation. Crooks, thieves and Bandits. They prey on little guys. Weeding out the stop-losses.

[melody9999] 02/10/2012 19:31

Me too Phil0124 - took my loss and moved on. Good luck to everyone else because the share price will surely rise now!

[blue forever] 02/10/2012 15:59

Well,it helps to pass the time.....

[jimbo55] 02/10/2012 15:46

Where did all the FTSE 250 talk come from? Avanti aren't yet listed on the main market. One step at a time Gents...

[fig1] 02/10/2012 15:34

i disagree undertaker.someone wants this higher..........ME!.

[undertaker] 02/10/2012 15:08

there is clearly some manipulation going on at this level...all these tiny trades going through e.g 7, and the price falls!...looks like someone wants this lower.

[philo124] 02/10/2012 14:33

That's it, i am out whilst still in Profit.

[nobbygnome] 02/10/2012 14:27

As said above this is fascinating from a TA point of view. A decisive break below 340p and it appears 300p is on the cards. However, if it holds then we should get a break on the upside. My finger is hovvering over the buy button...

This is on a knife edge and clearly a positive announcement would be very timely!

Nobby

[disc0dave] 02/10/2012 14:18

I have to say this is looking like a bit of a gamble - I hold at £3.60ish and was looking for a chance to top-up a while ago - now we seem to be in the price area where I would look to buy, the sheer lack of understanding where we might go next is putting me off, as it may be for others.

The fact we haven't dropped "suddenly" makes me feel that no (bad) news has leaked yet, maybe the MM's are just playing on this by dropping the s/p.

Fortune favours the brave at this point but it's either buy now and see it fly, or wait, and see if it does drop any more to give a lower top up price but risk missing out...

Really difficult one to judge