Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 03/8/2012 08:19

divinausa1 3 Aug'12 - 02:10 - 9949 of 9965

think t will do 20p in the morn and end the day at £3.90p

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Looking a good call at the moment

[edwardt] 03/8/2012 08:18

inmarsarat results very strong this am - could be positive read across here.

[plasybryn] 03/8/2012 08:18

Chart looks strong. Don't want gaps. Steady as she goes. Roll out of news. New contracts? Very pleased with how this has gone.

[melody9999] 03/8/2012 08:18

williams could well be right in as much as the testing could involve 'beta' customers which might start this month

[johncsimpson] 03/8/2012 08:12

VeryMaryHinge 3 Aug'12 - 08:05 - 9962 of 9963

That Cenkos update:

For 'precedes several weeks of testing' read, three months and 'sales price per MHz across Avanti's 3 satellites is only c.$350 compared to current prices in the market of $2000' did I miss a launch?

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 08:10

looks like i was spot on 20p early doors rise then falling back to sub £4

early in the day but looks odds on...

[edwardt] 03/8/2012 08:06

nice and steady increase - happy with that

[verymaryhinge] 03/8/2012 08:05

Cenkos

AVANTI (AVN, 385p, £0.4bn, BUY) - The successful launch of HYLAS 2 yesterday evening in French Guiana (in correct orbit / telemetry received at the control centre) precedes several weeks of testing after which we would expect sales to quickly ramp at a satellite which has more than double the capacity of the existing HYLAS 1. As revenues build this will help sustain the recent performance of the shares and in due course, realise the substantial equity value which we believe is not reflected in the current share price. In our view there are three key valuation metrics: 1. Assuming that Avanti can fill the capacity in the three satellites and that pricing grows at low inflationary rates, EPS could reach almost 200p in FY20. 2. At the current enterprise value the implicit monthly sales price per MHz across Avanti's 3 satellites is only c.$350 compared to current prices in the market of $2000. 3. Based on our earnings estimate two years out of 30.9p, the shares would only be trading on 13x and this multiple could halve the following year.

[rafieh] 03/8/2012 07:55

About the share price reaction to the launch, what people seem to forget is that at the time of the last launch the share price was already at an all time high, about double the current price. So there was not as much room for increase as there is this time.

[backmarker] 03/8/2012 07:53

colva,

you seem to have heard what I heard.

now Williams says "It will now undertake a series of pre-planned in orbit acceptance tests over the coming three months before we commence service for customers."

there's clearly been some miscommunication somewhere, and I'm not happy. the delay will mean the share price falling away again like last time.

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 07:40

johncsimpson
3 Aug'12 - 07:34 - 9957 of 9958

Absolutely spectacular launch with no hitches.

In part of this mornings RNS, David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti Communications says:

"I'm delighted that our second satellite, HYLAS 2,
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he must be delighted but very disappointed at the shareprice below the level when H1 was launched and have bought a shed load at £6.50, still im sure he is in for H3 and beyond....

[colva] 03/8/2012 07:37

3 months of testing before start of service , Backmarker , im sure they said the testing phase would be much shorter than H1 , a few weeks back DW said in an interview that customers would be online by the end of August .

[johncsimpson] 03/8/2012 07:34

Absolutely spectacular launch with no hitches.

In part of this mornings RNS, David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti Communications says:

"I'm delighted that our second satellite, HYLAS 2, has been successfully launched and is operating under our control. It will now undertake a series of pre-planned in orbit acceptance tests over the coming three months before we commence service for customers.

It will be interesting to see if AVN stays in auction at the open or if it opens for dealing on time and then how the markets respond to the launch tempered by the three month testing period.

[verymaryhinge] 03/8/2012 07:33

launch has a number of phases.. launch, as in last nights, is the first. the others are getting it in the correct position, and making sure it's working properly. the share price will/may react positively to last nights success, but i'm interested in the next stages of the commissioning. I still have my fingers crossed, and will keep them that way until we are told the satellite is in service and earning it's way.

.. so far so good.

[johncsimpson] 03/8/2012 07:33

divinausa1 3 Aug'12 - 02:09 - 9948 of 9953

i think i won the s price on launch at £3.80p

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Price at launch was 385. Lets see how you've done by next Friday at close.

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backmarker 3 Aug'12 - 06:34 - 9951 of 9953

. . . oh yes, my share price prediction is 408.779316584p, give or take.

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I'll put you down for 408.75

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 07:28

The shares were first recommended on January 8, 2010, at 467½p and they are now down 33pc compared with a market up 1pc. The shares have drifted from a high of 735p. Questor noted that the investment could be very volatile and it was "not one on which to bet the farm" and that view still stands. The shares are now looking pretty cheap, should the group manage to fill all of its satellites. City analysts have some pretty punchy targets, with the average of the three analysts monitored by Bloomberg being £16.50, a staggering 430pc above the current levels.

Questor maintains a buy stance and looks forward to the launch of HYLAS 2 as the next major catalyst.

[johncsimpson] 03/8/2012 07:24

Absolutely spectacular launch with no hitches.

In part of this mornings RNS, David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti Communications says:

"I'm delighted that our second satellite, HYLAS 2, has been successfully launched and is operating under our control. It will now undertake a series of pre-planned in orbit acceptance tests over the coming three months before we commence service for customers . . ."

It will be interesting to see if AVN stays in auction at the open or if it opens for dealing on time and then how the markets respond to the launch tempered by the three month testing period.

[weatherman] 03/8/2012 07:17

P guess they have put it in a low earth orbit to start of a few hundred km up, but will need to get it in to geostationary orbit at 35000km.

[gloaming] 03/8/2012 06:49

"It will now undertake a series of pre-planned in orbit acceptance tests over the coming three months before we commence service for customers.

[backmarker] 03/8/2012 06:34

what a great launch. beautiful pictures.

unfortunately during all those little promo fill-ins after the fairing had been jettisoned I fell asleep so missed the actual deployment of H-2 and all the handshakes and backslapping. (the malt whisky I was drinking at the time had nothing whatsoever to do with this.)

the thing is, having now watched several of the Ariane-5 launches live, including H-1, the excitement has reduced a little; they all run like clockwork. even the commentary is similar. and once the rocket is out of sight and the little graph starts to flatline for a while after they switch the power off it's actually a bit boring for a while.

anyway, we were told that the testing phase for H-2 will be shorter than that for H-1, so hopefully we will be live in September. what I'm then hoping is that once H-2 is confirmed live and running this will bring in a lot more H-2 contracts from the fence-sitters and the share price will start lifting off too.

glta

oh yes, my share price prediction is 408.779316584p, give or take.

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 03:21

The shares were first recommended on January 8, 2010, at 467½p and they are now down 33pc compared with a market up 1pc. The shares have drifted from a high of 735p. Questor noted that the investment could be very volatile and it was "not one on which to bet the farm" and that view still stands. The shares are now looking pretty cheap, should the group manage to fill all of its satellites. City analysts have some pretty punchy targets, with the average of the three analysts monitored by Bloomberg being £16.50, a staggering 430pc above the current levels.
Questor maintains a buy stance and looks forward to the launch of HYLAS 2 as the next major catalyst.

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 02:10

think t will do 20p in the morn and end the day at £3.90p

[divinausa1] 03/8/2012 02:09

i think i won the s price on launch at £3.80p

[hpcg] 03/8/2012 00:24

Those of us around since the first launch will remember that the commissioning time took many investors by surprise - many people were expecting revenue earning to commence immediately after launch. So expect a sequence of RNS similar to 2010.
I don't know if H2 commissioning will be quicker, because they have done it once before, or slower because H2 has more beams and a higher capacity. H1 period was 26 Nov 10 - 15 Mar 11, or just over 3 months.

Extract from the immediate H1 post launch RNS 29 nov 2010

Before we begin to put customer traffic onto the satellite in the New Year, we will be working to enhance the revenue generating potential of the satellite. As a result of certain extra design activities during manufacture HYLAS 1 has higher performance than the original design provided for and is able to offer certain new services. We will analyse the precise performance characteristics of the satellite in these operating modes before commercial service commences.

RNS (extract) 15 Dec 2010

Avanti (LSE: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, is pleased to update the market on the excellent progress made following the launch of HYLAS 1. The satellite has now had all systems turned on and all results are as planned. The satellite has reached geostationary orbit and the first transmissions have been received at Avanti's primary Gateway Earth Station in the UK.

The launch was highly efficient and as a result HYLAS 1 is expected to achieve longer useful life than planned because of fuel efficiency during transfer to geostationary orbit. Avanti will now continue with a pre-service mission which is using HYLAS to demonstrate certain capabilities that are relevant to future business, and then will prepare for the launch of commercial service in Europe towards the end of calendar Q1.

RNS (extract) 15 Mar 2011

Avanti Communications Group plc (LSE: AIM), the broadband satellite operator, is pleased to report that it formally completed in orbit testing of the HYLAS 1 satellite yesterday.

The testing process confirmed that HYLAS 1 is working in conformance with specification and, in some areas, delivering higher performance than originally specified. The satellite lifetime is expected to be at least six months greater than planned and the available power is several percentage points better than specification. This will translate into improved service quality, flexibility and usable capacity.

The provision of services on HYLAS 1 will now commence. The first live customer service in the UK will be installed next week.

[5070481] 02/8/2012 23:15

The reaction to the last launch was a considerable spike on success. It was only after that spike that we started to see selling coming in. I expect the same so suspect that shorters will get burned tomorrow