Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 02/8/2012 21:38

Just crankin' up the volume on 'Telstar' by the Tornados

[2350220] 02/8/2012 21:38

here we go!

[2350220] 02/8/2012 21:32

Well, according to their clock in the Bars, it only says 7mins

John

[johncsimpson] 02/8/2012 21:31

2350220 2 Aug'12 - 21:20 - 9889 of 9891

Less than 19 mins to go and all I've got is Colour Bars.
Anyone else see anything different?
John

--------------------

Nope - it's like one of those original test screens from the 60's.

[edwardt] 02/8/2012 21:25

same here -hope we get to see it!

[edwardt] 02/8/2012 21:20

21mins to go

[2350220] 02/8/2012 21:20

Less than 19 mins to go and all I've got is Colour Bars.
Anyone else see anything different?
John

[johncsimpson] 02/8/2012 21:19

Screeenshot as of close today.



So re the charts:

Under normal circumstances, I would expect from today's screenshot that the MACD would stay negative and as a consequence, the price would remain (for want of a better word) flat. But these are not normal circumstances because as we all know Hylas2 will be launched tonight.

The question is to what extent will a successful launch effect the share price tomorrow morning and over the next few days . . ?

My take is thus:

To start, a successful launch is about as dead a cert as is possible. The Ariane space vehicle has proven very reliable. Therefore, unlike the junior miner who strikes a rich vein of gold that wasn't there the day before and sees its price rise exponentially to its previous moves, there will be no eureka moment here. The launch is a known quantity and is in the price. What isn't in the price is some form of failure be it at launch or in the deployment of the satellite and its subsequent ability to function as planned. It may, for instance, not function to maximum capability for whatever reason. Consequently, common sense and not charts tells me that the price will not move much one way or the other unless there is some sort of hitch – in which case it will move backwards!

So the next event to happen that we can say with any degree of certainty is that there will be a technical update re the (successful) launch and deployment.

Away from this 'technical reporting' we have the potential for new sales. This, dare I say, is unlikely to materialise until there has been a successful launch, deployment and testing. No one is likely to move beyond their current commitments (apart from maybe topping them up on Hylas1) until this is announced. Similarly new business will be held back by the same restraints. This does not mean that AVN will not have contacts drawn up and in the pipeline – just that they may not be signed for some time.

It will be interesting tomorrow (assuming a successful launch) to see to what extent my charts and 'predictions' are abnormally effected by this evenings events.

I don't think they will be, least not too much, but we'll see.

[edwardt] 02/8/2012 20:49

am getting a little exicted - not sure about shorting this, momentum is a beautiful thing when it is on your side

[2350220] 02/8/2012 20:35

According to their countdown clock, it looks set for about 9.38pm I reckon.

John

[snatander] 02/8/2012 19:44

better travel than arrive


time to short

[buffman] 02/8/2012 19:36

Thought the launch was around 11pm, butnow seems to be set for just after 9.30pm is that what others are expecting?

[mikeod] 02/8/2012 16:08

470p for me!

[verymaryhinge] 02/8/2012 15:17

yep fingers and toes- assuming all well with the launch, sit back and wait for the contracts.. it'll be higher not lower in a years time, and much higher in a couple of years, imho.

an investment, this one.

[philo124] 02/8/2012 15:14

The other way around this year by the look of it. Fingers crossed for tonight!

[2350220] 02/8/2012 14:26

Collapse?
The share price is hardly powering ahead as it is!

John

[restassured] 02/8/2012 14:17

Are we expecting the share price to collapse after the launch,like last year?

[verymaryhinge] 02/8/2012 14:10

not me - NO way it'd get off the ground, it's only got enought ooomphh to get to into space.

[geheimnis2] 02/8/2012 13:49

wonder if good old cawky will be watching the launch tonight

i bet a few people wish he was strapped to the satellite...

;-)

[share buddy] 02/8/2012 13:36

415p is my GUESS

[peterpowell21] 02/8/2012 12:59

hi all
put me down for £4.35
i think it will get higher but fall away a bit.
gla

[cheshire2] 02/8/2012 12:22

2350220

Well spotted - ment to put two links - one for the large countdown clock and the other for video..tks