Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 13/7/2012 09:12

Shooting up.

[ttnyw] 13/7/2012 09:10

Still a long way underwater, but hopeful!!

Was anyone here clever, or, lucky enough to buy @ the c240p low?

[dolores123] 13/7/2012 08:52

£4+ next week imo and RHPS said the next few weeks will be exciting!! Lets hope so.

[philo124] 13/7/2012 08:49

Pre launch 450p possible imo.

[geheimnis2] 13/7/2012 08:42

phil

i personally dont expect the launch to create a massive uplift to the current sp

i am going for £4.20 by mid august

others may be more bullish

as i say, i think £4.20 is undemanding

[billytkid2] 13/7/2012 08:41

I'm still 15p away but it feels like winning.

[rogerbridge] 13/7/2012 08:39

Wow, I am now in profit. It was worth holding on through the difficult times.

[buffaloman] 13/7/2012 08:31

Whereas last week there seemed to be loads of stock about & I said it looked as though there was a large placing going on behind the scenes, the situation has now turned & the mms apear to be short of stock judging by the price moves on L2. Lts of buying this AM - I'm saying nothing!

[philo124] 13/7/2012 08:29

So the launch will make no difference then?

[geheimnis2] 13/7/2012 08:27

sp looking nice

i think the £4-£4.30 range is pretty undemanding for this stock so may settle there for a couple of months

[philo124] 13/7/2012 08:15

Good start, hope we push on from here.

[garymott] 13/7/2012 08:14

yorgi, careful.... :-)

[yorgi] 12/7/2012 20:15

Nothing new but shows we are getting further press :

[weatherman] 12/7/2012 19:43

Avanti getting some coverage at Farnborough airshow - space environment section. Much was made of link with esa.

[jeffian] 12/7/2012 19:08

Aye, but they've been saying it for years. Let's hope they're right this time!

[yorgi] 12/7/2012 14:49

Thanks for those Billy :-)

[billytkid2] 12/7/2012 13:32

Cenkos:

Avanti has today published a year end trading update confirming the company has
finished FY12 strongly and is well poised for dramatic growth post the basischanging
launch of HYLAS 2 in August. One key metric to highlight is the acceleration
of the win-rate of new business which leaves the company on track to sell all of the
capacity on HYLAS 1 and 2 in three years and four years post service launch
respectively. The revenue ramp expected in FY13 should be enough to convince
investors of the value opportunity which could see peak earnings close to 200p.
 Year-end update. Today's statement contains an update on trading including the
final two months of FY12. This reveals that FY revenues are expected to be £17.8m
and therefore just ahead of our forecast of £17.0m. At the end of April, the backlog
stood at £213m and the pipeline was a further £530m; the backlog (binding
contracts which will be reflected in future revenues) has now increased to £246m
while the pipeline remains a healthy £502m. The company estimates that it needs
to maintain a win-rate of new contracts at c.£11m per month in order to fill HYLAS
1 and 2 in-line with stated objectives and has confirmed that recent trading is in
excess of this level.
 Outlook. The imminent launch of HYLAS 2 on August 2nd, followed by the smaller
but highly cost efficient HYLAS 3 three years hence, will mean that 80% of the
Group's capacity will be focussed on high growth emerging markets (ESA hosted a
formal signing on H3 at Farnborough this week). The key to crystallising the
substantial equity value potential will hinge on the ability of Avanti to maintain the
win-rate of new business across both existing satellites at pricing consistent with
steady inflationary progression. Delivering on these key drivers is likely to unlock
the substantial upside highlighted below.
 Valuation. Valuing growth businesses at a relatively early stage is always a
challenge but amongst the various metrics, three stand out to us: 1. Assuming that
Avanti can fill the capacity in the three satellites and that pricing grows at low
inflationary rates, EPS could reach almost 200p in FY20. 2. At the current enterprise
value the implicit monthly sales price per MHz across Avanti's 3 satellites is only
c.$300 compared to current prices in the market of $2000. 3. Based on our
earnings estimate two years out of 30.9p, the shares would only be trading on 11x
and this multiple could halve the following year. There is further support from our
DCF analysis (1200p+), and also in the fact that the current EV only reflects the
build costs of the satellite fleet without taking any account of the value of the
spectrum in the 3 satellite slots which Avanti owns and which could support up to
20 satellites.

[billytkid2] 12/7/2012 13:31

Jeffries:

Key Takeaway
Avanti has published a trading update for the year ended 30 June 2012.
Management reports an acceleration in additions to Backlog, which are
running ahead of guidance. FY12 revenue guidance has been achieved. Much
recent attention has focused on the progress of HYLAS-2's launch, and this is
confirmed to be on track. However, today's statement also provides valuable
reassurance on the monetisation of HYLAS-1.
Additions to Backlog running ahead of guidance. Backlog (binding contracts for
the sale of capacity in future periods) is £246m at the end of June, up £33m in the two
months since end-April. To sell all the capacity on HYLAS-1 within three years of the start
of commercial service and HYLAS-2 within four years, management has previously guided
that it needs to add c.£11m per month to the Backlog. Avanti confirms that it has exceeded
this target so far. In the 8 months since the target was established, we estimate that Avanti
is running about one month ahead.
FY12 revenue target achieved. Total revenues and operating income for the year to 30
June 2012 are reported at £17.8m (vs.guidance of no less than £17m set at the 1H FY12
results). This result implies £12.7m for 2H FY12, up from £5.1m in 1H FY12. While much
recent focus has centred on progress towards the HYLAS-2 launch, demonstrating solid
execution on HYLAS-1 is also critical, in our view. We believe that today's trading update
should provide valuable reassurance on this issue.
Confirmation that HYLAS-2 launch remains on schedule. In its 27 June
statement, Avanti confirmed that HYLAS-2 will launch from an Ariane vehicle at
9.50pm UK time on 2 August 2012. Today's statement confirms that this timetable is
on schedule. Avanti says that HYLAS-2 has completed testing and has been shipped
to French Guiana.
HYLAS-2 opens up attractive emerging markets. HYLAS-2 will carry a payload
of 24 fixed beams and one steerable beam, and will deliver 8.3 GHz of capacity,
almost quadrupling Avanti's overall capacity. HYLAS 2 will substantially increase the
company's international coverage, unlocking new and attractive growth markets in
Eastern / Southern Africa and the Middle East. HYLAS-2 applications will include
broadband access, enterprise data networks and mobile backhaul.

[geheimnis2] 12/7/2012 11:43

hope so P

i think £6-7 will be the main listing price next year but happy to get there earlier!

[parvez] 12/7/2012 11:32

Geheimnis2, I reckon £4.50 by July, £6 by august IMHO

[geheimnis2] 12/7/2012 11:25

£4.50 by end of August?

[cockneyrebel] 12/7/2012 10:43

Breaking out here and a massive bowl:

[2350220] 12/7/2012 10:41

Sure I accept that Backmarker, hence why I'm confused about the discrepancy.
Just noticed that it has a 'market closed' marker next to it.
So that must be why it's still showing yesterday's price.

Oh well, I'm not concerned. As I say, I don't have any intention of closing these out till some way down the road.

All the best,
John