Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[rimmy2000] 30/9/2011 14:40

don't mean he'll be on the right side bro..?

[billytkid2] 30/9/2011 14:37

Daniel Stewart:

FY'11 (June) Results preview; focus on capacity
 Results to June 2011 due Monday 3rd October.
 DSCE: Revenue of £5.4m; EBITDA loss of £(5.4m).
 This is an opportunity for Avanti to provide an update on the key aspects of its
HYLAS Ka band broadband programme, notably:
 The amount of HYLAS 1 capacity (3,000MHz) sold to date;
 Order book and longevity of orders;
 Per MHz pricing trends and competitive aspects (Eutelsat);
 Progress on HYLAS 2 construction.
 Avanti mostly recently (16th Sep) announced a £1.5m order from Kent County
Council within its Rural Broadband framework. This is clearly a small-scale order
and only serves to highlight the relative absence to date of clarity on proportion
of the 3,000MHz of capacity available on HYLAS 1.
 Our valuation includes both HYLAS 1 and 2, and the planned HYLAS 3; these are
long-dated projects and therefore demand particularly lengthy DCF periods in
order to offset high capital costs against lengthy income streams.
 In our view share price weakness reflects the absence of these key "building
blocks" of performance and valuation data.

[billytkid2] 30/9/2011 14:34

Jefferies:

Avanti Communications (AVN LN)
FY'11 results will show Avanti trading below book value

Key Takeaway
Avanti will publish results for the year ended 30th June 2011, on Monday 3rd
October. The company has previously indicated they expect results to be 'in line
with market expectations'. We reiterate our view the company is materially
undervalued at current levels, especially in light of the asset values implied by
the sale of four Brazilian orbital slots last month.
The company said in a press release dated July 29th, they expect full year results
that will be published Oct 3rd to be 'in line with market expectations'. Since that
time, expectations have remained relatively stable (+2.4% for sales, +0% EBITDA, -1.4% net
income) and we therefore expect the group to meet or beat expectations.
We are below consensus on most metrics. For the full year we expect sales of £5.4m
(cons. £5.9m), an EBITDA loss of £11.1m (cons. -£8.5m), and a net income loss of £9.7m
(cons. -£13.6) with the difference arising from tax credit assumptions. We note the results are
not reflective of Avanti's current status as a fully operational satellite operator given Hylas-1
wasn't commercially deployed until the middle of last March. We expect the focus to remain
on new contract announcements.
We reiterate our view that Avanti is materially undervalued at these levels. The
new financials will incorporate for the first time the £70m of equity raised in July last year
taking shareholder equity to about £230m. This means the stock is currently on 0.9x book
value, which is reflects the equity invested in Hylas-1 and 2, versus 3.3x for Eutelsat and 2.8x
for SES. We see the 70% discount as excessive due to: 1) a strong asset base with its 2 fully
funded satellites and 3 orbital slots; 2) growth prospects for Ka-band given the current data
crunch and; 3) ownership of scarce military spectrum.
Furthermore, pricing implied by the Brazilian orbital slot auction last month
implies Avanti's 3 orbital slots are worth 85% of the current market cap. The
Brazilian National Telecom Agency (Anatel) auctioned four satellite geostationary orbital
filings on August 30th. HNS Communications paid $91.5m for one of them with the
company obliged to have a satellite deployed in order to secure the licenses. Avanti owns
three orbital slots, one of which (33.5º West), covers Brazil. The implied $270m asset value
is 85% of the group's current market cap. Adding the value of the two fully funded satellites
the market is ascribing zero to negative value to Avanti's core business which we see as
unreasonable.

[estienne] 30/9/2011 13:32

EK still has his short open so must be confident that the results will not do much for the share price. So far he's been spot on!

[christianf12] 30/9/2011 12:13

I expect to see more short closing and buyers this afternoon ahead of results Monday.

[jeffian] 30/9/2011 11:06

I think Director buys are a red herring. Directors are there to run the company and achieve growth in revenues and profits, not try to support the share price with their own money.

[argy2] 30/9/2011 10:48

If so, hopefully the shares won't slump as they did after the last batch of Director buys

[christianf12] 30/9/2011 10:39

No doubt once the results are out directors can and will be averaging down their most recent purchases?

[christianf12] 30/9/2011 10:22

Me neither.

[yorgi] 30/9/2011 10:20

If we don't today then it looks very likely we will next week. I don't think this is anything to do with the shares magazine tip or RHPS but as we all know nothing is watertight ! So although as Someuwin comments the results themselves might be meaningless, it is what goes with them that will hold the key. Contracts won, take up of Hylas1 update on Hylas2 launch maybe but it is looking encouraging today.

If a few shorters get burnt or fried I for one won't lose any sleep.

[christianf12] 30/9/2011 10:07

Could see 300p today as just gone in to auction.

[someuwin] 30/9/2011 10:03

Hopefully the trading update (results themselves will be meaningless) on monday will firmly mark the turning point here and we'll see a swift move back up.

[superg1] 30/9/2011 10:02

Nice rise perhaps it will bounce to that 300 mark

[electrick] 30/9/2011 10:01

I have purchased a small holding here this am.. shares are very difficult to get hold of at the moment

[share_shark] 30/9/2011 09:57

I am well yorgi and glad to hear you are too. I made money here,due to a contact and wish I could have stayed but you know how life is. The whole world is in turmoil so no surprises. Hang onto RAM !. Very best regards. SS.

[yorgi] 30/9/2011 09:46

Yes I am well thanks Share Shark I hope you are also........feeling all the better for seeing some blue on AVN for a change. We have a long long way back but I'm confident that is where we are going but it just a question of how long this will take.

[yorgi] 30/9/2011 09:36

Thanks for that posting Pappupops, whether it is the Shares Magazine effect or anticipation of Mondays results and accompanying updates that is giving us a rise this morning it is going in the right direction for a change. We have along way to go now but I'm as confident as I have always been about the technology and what the take up will be. What will then follow on from that will be the profits and that is what should take us back to where we were and beyond.

[pappupops] 30/9/2011 08:49

yesterdays shares magazine says buy avanti communications at 254p saying avanti communications to send the right signals,buying shares in satellite operator avanti communications at ahead of monday 3 oct full year results are expected to show revenues of around 5.5 million and a 12.5 million pre-tax loss,but investors will also get a vital steer on capacity progress. The company's hylas 1 satellite is already operating but hylas 2, its second unit, is also set for launch around june. Recent success include a deal with spanish information and communications technology provider novera and a pilot project to assess broadband blackspots in kent. These contracts underpin expected revenues in excess of 30 million for the year to june 2012. In the three months leading up to last year's hylas 1 launch the shares soared on market excitement, rising 60% to a record 735p. With hylas 2 expected to beef up superfast broadband coverage across mainland europe, and extend it to emerging markets across the middle east, afghanistan and africa, the coming 12 months promise to be an exciting time for the company and the shares.

[superg1] 30/9/2011 06:50

Shares fall for a reason, like on other shares if the news is good that would be reflected in the share price by now.

If they are in any way negative expect the usual panic sellers, followed by the buyers picking up the bottom price and correcting it.

I'm sure those shorters will work it the other way when it suits them.

In real terms taking out all the emotional connection. With losses to announce next week, that's what the main market looks at.
Future potential is just that and in the current market profit is everything.

In the boom time I doubt this fall would have existed, but Yes if all is well and things go to plan then there is a big upside. But for the main market, what is the rush, there is no doubling overnight here, they have time on their side and when the charts say buy, big uptrend coming, they will buy. Then the smiles will return here.

[christianf12] 29/9/2011 20:21

Might see some short closing tomorrow ahead of results? See bulford ramping again tonight.

You'd think he'd be embarrassed, he said if he could only buy 1 share it would be avn, at 700p+!!!!

[blue forever] 29/9/2011 20:14

I`m not expecting anything more than results "in line with market expectations" which will be interpreted either way depending on your viewpoint or agenda.We may have to wait for the real fireworks when Hylas 2 launches next year and we`re closer to filling Hylas 1`s capacity.This company ain`t gonna go away!